Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 250454

National Weather Service Topeka KS
1154 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Upper ridge was over the High Plains today with strong upper low
making slow northeast progress toward British Columbia per water
vapor imagery, with some evidence of a shortwave entering southern
California. East to southeast low level flow was the rule over the
Central Plains with high pressure over Minnesota.

The California wave reaches the Rockies late tonight and intensifies
as it passes into the Plains Tuesday. PW values increase through
this time with some potential for some stratus overnight into
Tuesday, but overall depth of moisture appears too shallow in the
better layers of isentropic upglide for any precip to develop.
Should also see high cloud increase with time but breezy south winds
and continued weak warm air advection should still be able to push
temps into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Weak surface front may enter
the area late in the afternoon but capping appears too strong for
anything more than very isolated activity with progged convergence
very weak.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Only chances for precipitation in the extended focus in the Tuesday
night to early Wednesday time frame when a shortwave trough is
progged to shift over Nebraska into Iowa. A cold front surges
southeast into northeast Kansas Tuesday evening. Building elevated
instability during the late afternoon exceeds 3000 J/KG while the
bulk of 0-6 km shear is in the lowest 2 km from 25-35 kts.
Despite the weak albeit present capping inversion, development is
not expected until closer to 00Z when the upper wave enters central
NE. The NAM, GFS, and WRF solutions are fairly similar with
convection forming in Nebraska before dropping southward into KS,
spreading southeast along the front overnight. Initial convection
may be strong enough for a few severe updrafts capable of large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, instability quickly drops off
towards far northeast and east central KS with most of the overnight
period dealing with light to moderate non severe thunderstorms.

Subsidence quickly fills in Wednesday mid-morning while lack of a
cool airmass in the system`s wake allows for similar, mild
temperatures to persist through Friday. Next deepening sfc trough to
our west and compressional warming in advance of the next wave
Friday will enhance the low level mixing and raise highs to lower
80s. Stronger cold front passes through the region dry Friday
evening bringing back the seasonable temps in the upper 60s and lows
in the 40s throughout the weekend. Extended guidance show an
poignant upper trough entering the southwest CONUS, ejecting across
the northern plains on Monday. At this time, this continues to trend
northward, leaving a warm and pleasant afternoon and evening on
Halloween. Highs are in the lower 70s with lows in the around 50


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Models show a warm air advection pattern persisting overnight with
decent isentropic upglide and moisture return. Although forecast
soundings maintain some inhibition just above the lift. Because
of this have not included any mention of precip and high res
models suggest areas north of the terminals may be more likely
for elevated showers. Forecast soundings also show a steep
inversion developing, so LLWS is of some concern. Winds at the top
of the inversion are progged to be from the south at 20 to 25 KT
and profiler data have been verifying this. Will continue to
monitor trends to see how strong the low level jet becomes
overnight. Stratus with the low level warm air advection is coming
in around 4 KFT so a VFR forecast looks on track.




LONG TERM...Prieto
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