Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 300544
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY THEN BRING A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
BEFORE FAIR WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT...NARROWING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WITH
OUR AREA REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. THE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE
TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO LARGELY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER
40S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

ON TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVOLVING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK.
TOGETHER...THESE FEATURES SHOULD BRING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF
ROCHESTER...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BOTH
BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY SUNNY AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST. THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP RELATIVELY
WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL EARLY OCT VALUES...WITH THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE COMING AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SYNOPTIC DESCRIPTION IS A LITTLE SIMPLISTIC
THOUGH...AS THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A PESKY CLOSED H5 LOW IN
THE VCNTY OF NW PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT A
LEFTOVER SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER A CAP BASED ARND 3K FT WILL KEEP A
WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH H85 TEMPS ARND 10C
SUPPORTING AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 (MID
70S GEN VALLEY).

MORE DEFINITIVE CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE H5
RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND ITS CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL GENERATE A DEEPENING
CUTTER STORM IN THE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION...WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AN
AVERAGE OF 12C...WHICH IS WELL ABV NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
THURSDAY SHOULD THUS BE AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME VALLEY THERMOMETERS AND SITES NEAR THE IAG
ESCARPMENT PUSHING CLOSE TO 80F. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BE
DOWNRIGHT WARM WITH READINGS ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS NOT FALLING OUT
OF THE 60S. TO PUT THIS INTO SOME PERSPECTIVE...OUR NORMAL MAX TEMPS
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR STRETCH OF INDIAN SUMMER WILL COME TO A CLOSE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS MUCH COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE SOME 20 DEG F LOWER DURING THE WEEKEND THAN FROM READINGS
DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

SYNOPTICALLY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEPENING CUTTER
STORM THAT WILL LIFT ALMOST DUE NORTH FROM CHICAGO FRIDAY...WHILE
SWEEPING A PATTERN CHANGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY
(ESP EAST OF THE GEN VALLEY)...A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT LATER IN THE DAY-FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE AXIS OF
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH WILL BECOME ALIGNED OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. H85 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF ZERO C...WHICH WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS FOR SITES EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 06Z SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG HAS BROUGHT LIFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE KJHW TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR WITH
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND NOONTIME. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LOWER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS VEER AROUND
TO NORTHEASTERLY. A STILL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SPRINKLES AND LOW MVFR OR IFR CLOUDS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 06Z-15Z EACH DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROWING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WHILE KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES IN
PLACE.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THEN LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
INCREASE WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE ON EASTERN
LAKE ERIE WAVES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 FOOT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND USHERS IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES.

LATE IN THE WEEK...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS...WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING POSSIBLE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/WCH
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/WCH






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