Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 220652

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
252 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Strong high pressure will allow dry and very warm weather to
continue through the weekend and into the first half of next week. A
cold front will finally bring a chance of showers by Wednesday night
and Thursday, followed by much cooler air to end next week.


IR satellite imagery showing a veil of thin/high cirrus across the
region early this morning, associated with the outer edge of upper
level outflow from post-tropical Jose. Typical river valley fog will
continue through mid morning across the western Southern Tier. There
will also be some patchy fog in areas southeast and east of Lake
Ontario. The fog will burn off by around 10 AM.

Following the morning fog, expect another mostly sunny day as the
high/thin cirrus slowly dissipates and drifts south across the area
in response to ongoing subsidence and drying. High pressure will
remain parked over the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes, with the
center of the strong upper level ridge over the western Great Lakes
drifting ever closer. 850mb temps will be about a degree C warmer
than yesterday, and this will support highs in the low to mid 80s
across lower elevations and around 80 on the hills. Light northeast
winds will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario in the upper 70s.

High pressure surface and aloft will remain in place tonight. Expect
typical river valley fog across the western Southern Tier again late
tonight, with some patchy fog again for areas east and southeast of
Lake Ontario. Lows will range from the lower 60s on the lake plains
to the mid 50s across the interior Southern Tier and east of Lake


The region will bask in mid-summer like warmth for the weekend and
beginning of next week. The highly amplified pattern across the
CONUS will build a strong 590dm ridge over the region. NAFES and EC
ensembles are in strong agreement on the magnitude of the ridging
and support 850 mb temperatures in the top 99th percentile for this
time of year, particularly on Sunday and Monday when the thermal
ridge axis crosses the region. High temperatures will follow the
warming trend Saturday, with highs solidly in the 80s for most
locations. The warmest readings will come Sunday and Monday, when
850 mb temperatures pushing +20C support highs well into the 80s,
and pushing the 90 degree mark.

Several daily high temperature records may be challenged in this
time frame, particularly at Buffalo and Rochester. Buffalo`s record
highs for Sunday and Monday are 88 and 87, respectively, while
Rochester`s records highs are 90 and 92, respectively. Buffalo may
stand the best chance at breaking a daily record high temperature on
either day, but especially Monday as winds become more south to east
promoting downsloping and limiting lake breeze cooling. Ironically
Buffalo has also made it the entire summer without hitting the 90
degree mark, but now that we are officially in autumn, Buffalo may
make a run at the 90 degree mark. Nighttime low temperatures will be
very consistent each night from Saturday night through Monday night
with radiational cooling under the ridging aloft. Lows will range
from the upper 50s in interior valleys to the mid 60s in the lake
plains. Valley fog will be possible each night.


A pattern change enters the picture for the second half of next week
going into the beginning of October. Global models are in good
agreement that the all-too-familiar western CONUS ridge will make a
reappearance by mid to late week, which will open the door for
troughing across the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast, as we
have seen for much of the summer.

After the heat peaks Sunday/Monday as mentioned above, the ridging
starts to weaken and shift eastward Tuesday into Wednesday as a
trough moves over the upper Great Lakes by late Wednesday. The
result will be subtly cooling temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday,
although daily highs will still be in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday,
and the low to mid 80s Wednesday (which remains about 15 degrees
above climo for this time of year). Finally a chance for showers or
even a few thunderstorms enters the picture as a cold front eases
through the region in the Wednesday night to Thursday time frame.
Despite much cooler air expected to spill across the region in the
wake of the cold front passage, this airmass change will only get us
back down to near more seasonal values by late week, with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday.


A veil of thin/high cirrus will continue across the region through
this morning associated with the outermost portion of the upper
level outflow from post-tropical Jose. Expect typical valley fog to
continue across the river valleys of the western Southern Tier with
local IFR. Elsewhere expect mainly VFR with just some thin/patchy
field fog in rural areas. There may be a few patches of low stratus
and IFR CIGS for a few hours around daybreak, mainly southeast of
Lake Ontario between KROC and KFZY.

Any fog and low stratus will dissipate by around 14Z today. This
will leave VFR to prevail with the thin/high cirrus slowly thinning.
Expect more of the same tonight with VFR in most locations, and
typical Southern Tier river valley fog with local IFR after about


Saturday through Tuesday...VFR. Local IFR conditions each late night
and early morning with fog.


High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through the weekend and into the start of next week. This will
provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with
ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.





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