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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 072219
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY NORTHEASTERLIES ON SATURDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH UTAH AND
COLORADO WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY HAS MOVED EAST INTO COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES AS
FAR SOUTH AS WINSLOW. A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
HAS PRODUCES A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM LAKE MARY TO HEBER AND SHOW LOW. THIS CONVERGENCE BAND ALONG
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT.
OVERALL WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE YET DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
PASSING STORMS WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SATURDAY...A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL BRING STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE COOL AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FOR
WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH THOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVER ARIZONA WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS ON SUNDAY BECOMING BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLIES ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE UTAH
BORDER REGION. BY THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
STATE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN.



&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN WITH A
FEW TSRA FROM KE24-KFLG-KRQE EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. BY AROUND
02Z...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY KE24-30WNW KSOW-KSJN
EASTWARD. WINDS N-NE5-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF