Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211037
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DRIER AIR
BEHIND THIS LOW WILL FILTER INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A GRADUAL DOWN TURN IN STORM ACTIVITY FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING
WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD INTO
ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH LIFT INCREASING
OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CENTER
IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN AZ
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS...SHIFTING INTO
MAINLY EASTERN AZ BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WITH
THIS EVENT ARE LOWER THAN OUR OTHER RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SINCE MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVE
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.
WILL BRING DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR AREA...SO THE CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS
LOW AT THIS TIME...IN THE 10-30 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE COULD GET PULLED NORTHWARD AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...SO RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 17Z TODAY...WITH REDUCED VSBY IN TSRA AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.