Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010425
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
TODAY. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY INTO
FAR NORTHWEST COCONINO COUNTY/KAIBAB PLATEAU THIS EVENING. GFS/NAM12
ARE SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIVES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BRINGING A SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...AND PULLING WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ON SUNDAY NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA WESTWARD...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING
TO 7500-8000 FEET IN THE FLAGSTAFF AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...UP TO 8500 FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE STATE FROM
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BAND...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING RAPIDLY BELOW 6000 FEET
BEHIND THE FRONT.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY OF 1-3+ INCHES WILL
LIKELY AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO
STREAMS AND RIVERS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN
GILA COUNTIES.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY BUT THIS
LOOKS MOSTLY LIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCT -SHRA/-SHSN WILL BECOME MORE
WDSPRD BY 08Z-10Z TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ004.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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