Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261650

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
950 AM MST THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms today into Friday. Moisture will linger
through early next week with a very slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day. Otherwise, warmer temperatures are in
store starting Friday into next week.


Currently experiencing isolated light showers across northern AZ
this morning. Still expecting coverage to increase into the
afternoon hours with some thunderstorm development as well. Little
change to the short-term forecast is anticipated this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /341 AM MST/...A weak low pressure system will
move across Arizona today and then exit to the east of Friday.
Nothing impressive but additional moisture will move across the
area with scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms
developing. Showers and storms will be most numerous today into
this evening primarily over the mountains. The threat for showers
and storms will continue on Friday but more isolated due to the
low moving eastward. Higher bases will mean gusty winds near any

Starting Saturday and heading into next week...An even weaker low
will move across the southwest United States. Lingering moisture
will result in a slight chance of high based showers and
thunderstorms each day. With such a weak low, winds will remain
on the light side. In addition, a warmer air mass will begin to
move over Arizona with temperatures warming to near normal.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect generally VFR conditions
for the next 24 hours with isold to sct high based SHRA and TSRA
mainly from the Mogollon Rim N. Erratic and gusty winds are
possible this afternoon and evening near SHRA/TSRA. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...An area of low pressure will bring a isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms to northern Arizona through
Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms will be most numerous this
afternoon into the evening.

Saturday through Monday...Drier conditions and relatively light
winds are expected this weekend into early next week. There will
be a slight chance for dry, high based thunderstorms. Critical
fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.






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