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370
FXUS65 KFGZ 251627
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
927 AM MST Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...After another hot day today, a slow and steady cooling
trend will develop for much of next week. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be highest today along the Mogollon Rim and the
White Mountains. Drier westerly flow will push storm chances to
the east by Monday, with dry conditons across all the area after
Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...Increased chances for thunderstorms over southern
Yavapai County due to more moisture moving into the area. This
mornings sounding indicated high based storms with strong
downbursts possible. Otherwise no significant changes to the
forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /400 AM MST/...Mid-level moisture began to
increase across the area on Saturday, aided by a weak deformation
area extending into the Great Basin. This was followed by a
decent push of lower level moisture overnight, due to a collapsed
MCS over El Paso. These events will lead to higher moisture
values across the central and eastern portions of the CWA today
and POPS have been increased accordingly.

The strong ridge overhead will persist one more day today, but
will then begin to decay as westerlies develop across the
northern two thirds of the nation for much of next week.

This westerly flow will bring breezy and progressively drier
conditons to our area next week, with temperatures returning to
normal levels. Any chances for precipitation after today will be
pushed to White Mountains by Monday and Tuesday, with nearly zero
chances for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18z package...Expect primarily VFR conditions
for the 24-hour period, though smoke from area wildfires may bring
MVFR/IFR visibilities. Scattered mainly high based thunderstorms
will develop over the Mogollon Rim this afternoon, storms capable of
wind gusts to 45kt. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mid level moisture has increased over
areas south of the Mogollon Rim in the last 24 hours. This will
allow scattered high based thunderstorms to develop this afternoon,
primarily along the Mogollon Rim. Forecast soundings show a strong
downdraft potential with any storms. Max temps are on a slight
cooling trend. On Monday, westerly flow aloft to push the threat
for high based thunderstorms to Apache and southern Navajo counties.

Tuesday through Thursday...West southwest flow aloft to bring
a very much drier airmass to northern Arizona. Gusty southwest
winds should return during the afternoons and critical fire
conditions are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will
remain confined to the White Mountains Tuesday and Wednesday, elsewhere
no storms are forecast.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ005-
006-037.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB/DL
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff