822
FXUS62 KMLB 192345
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
745 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions forecast across all terminals overnight. Lingering
VCTS near SUA will diminish by 01Z, with dry conditions elsewhere.
Westerly winds overnight around 5 knots will pick up around 15Z
out of the north-northwest around 10 knots. Gusts to 20 to 25
knots will be possible Monday afternoon, and VCSH cannot be ruled
out across the interior terminals (MCO/ISM/SFB) and along the
coast from TIX southward. Higher confidence in VCTS across the
Treasure Coast terminals after 17Z. Conditions are forecast to
improve after 22Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

-Strong to severe storm threat diminishing into late this
 afternoon across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast.

-Scattered afternoon showers and storms continuing early this
 week, with a few stronger storms still possible across the
 southern Treasure Coast on Monday.

-Turning hotter and drier than normal from mid to late week.

Currently-Tonight...An outflow boundary from earlier convection this
morning that pushed south of Melbourne and the developing east coast
sea breeze has helped generate scattered showers and storms across
Okeechobee County and toward the coast, south of Melbourne in a
moist and unstable environment. Some strong to severe storms have
already formed across this region, with large hail reports up to 1.0-
1.75" in diameter, and will continue to be possible through late
afternoon before convection continues to diminish in coverage and
eventually pushes offshore. For now a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
remains in effect for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and
Martin counties, as well as the nearshore adjacent coastal waters
through 7 PM, but this may be allowed to end a little early. Showers
and isolated storms may still develop northward, mainly toward the
coast through this evening where sea breeze can develop, but rain
chances have trended much lower. Any storms that develop across this
region may also become strong before pushing offshore.

Monday-Next Weekend...(Modified Previous Discussion) Mid level
troughing will extend across the FL Peninsula early in the week with
surface flow veering out of the north-northeast through Tuesday.
Each afternoon, the east coast sea breeze is expected to push inland
as modest PW values of 1.3" to 1.5" remain over the area. NBM
guidance continues to indicate the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and storms across the area through early this
week, with rain chances ranging around 40-50 percent. However, MOS
guidance is coming in a little lower, so overall confidence in PoPs
remain low. There will still be the potential for a few stronger
storms across the southern Treasure Coast on Monday along a
slowing southward moving frontal boundary, and SPC has added a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather across this
region.

Drier air filters south from Wednesday through late week as
surface high pressure and mid level ridging builds across the
state. Mentionable PoPs (no more than 20-30%) remain confined to
areas south of Orlando. Daytime temperatures Monday and Tuesday
will reach to near normal (mid 80s to low 90s) with a few
locations along the coast slightly below late May norms (low 80s).
A gradual warming trend returns Wednesday as onshore flow resumes
and 500mb temps begin to warm, especially inland. Highs back in
the low to mid 90s are expected for the latter half of the work
week, except where in the mid/upper 80s at the coast behind the
daily sea breeze. An early look at the upcoming holiday weekend
from the NBME shows a 60 percent chance or greater for high
temperatures in the 90s across the area. In addition, a sea breeze
collision across the interior may become more slightly more
active in the late afternoon/early evening hours, enough to
mention 20-30 PoPs for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Tonight...Weak frontal boundary pushes southward into the waters
into tonight, with southerly winds around 10 knots veering and
becoming west to northwest late in the night. Scattered strong to
severe storms will continue across the waters, mainly south of
Melbourne through sunset, and then convection will gradually
diminish overnight. Can`t rule out some isolated storms developing
and pushing offshore near to north of Melbourne though through this
evening, which may also produce some strong gusts and small hail.
Seas will range from 2-3 feet.

This Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas build up to 5-6 ft
offshore late Monday night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly
increase to around 15 kt. Seas will generally range 3-5 ft Tuesday
and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the
waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before
gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on
Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or
around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind
speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  82  70  84 /  30  30  20  40
MCO  72  88  70  87 /  20  30  10  50
MLB  70  87  72  85 /  40  30  20  50
VRB  70  90  70  87 /  50  30  30  50
LEE  72  87  69  87 /  20  30  10  50
SFB  71  87  70  87 /  20  30  10  50
ORL  72  88  70  87 /  20  30  10  50
FPR  69  90  69  87 /  50  30  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Tollefsen