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000
FXUS62 KMLB 172011
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
EARLY START TO DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS BURNED UP MUCH OF THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY ALONG AND N OF U.S. HWY 192. CONVECTION STRUGGLING
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BNDRY DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MID
LVL VORT MAX APPROACHING THE FL BIG BEND. EXISTING CONVECTION HAS
GENERATED DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL INTERACT WITH
EXISTING STORMS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN TO WORK OVER MOST THE
REMAINING UNMODIFIED AIRMASS. BY SUNSET...MOST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD
BE CONSUMED. WILL KEEP ISOLD TSRAS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THRU LATE
EVNG...SCT COASTAL COUNTIES FROM COASTAL VOLUSIA TO INDIAN RIVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR "BLOW BACK". WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE L/M70S.

TUE-WED...
BROAD TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS PINNED OVER THE S HALF OF FL PENINSULA THRU MID WEEK. H100-H85
MEAN RH AOA 70PCT OVER THE SE GOMEX/NW CARIB WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
FUEL FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. A SLUG OF DRY AIR OVER THE FL
STRAITS IN THE H85-H50 LYR MAY INHIBIT COVERAGE SOMEWHAT...AND MID
VORTICITY REMAINS LACKING. MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AS WELL AS SWRLY FLOW INCRSG TO 10-15KTS THRU THE H85-H50 STEERING
LYR...A PATTERN THAT WOULD FOCUS SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE E OF THE FL
TURNPIKE AND SETTING UP THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR BLOW BACK
CONVECTION THRU SUNSET.

MAV MOS POPS CAME IN RATHER LOW THRU MIDWEEK...AOB 20PCT TUE AND AOB
30PCT WED. WHILE THE LACK OF VORTICITY AND DRY MID LVL AIR WILL
SERVE TO LIMIT TOTAL STORM ACTIVITY...THE INCREASING MID LVL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SEABREEZE MERGERS BY LATE AFTN WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
PUSHING STORM ACTIVITY ACRS THE PENINSULA. MOS ALSO KEEPS SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S AREAWIDE THRU MOST OF THE PD...INDICATING A
MOIST AND BUOYANT SFC/LOW LVL AIRMASS. PRECIP DISTRIBUTION LOOKS
REASONABLE...BUT WILL PUSH NUMBERS UP TO 30-40PCT AREAWIDE.

TEMPS A FEW DEGS ABV AVG DUE TO THE SW FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...
MINS IN THE L/M70S.

EXTENDED...(PREV DISC)
THU-FRI..S/SW LOW LVL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING TWD THE FL/GA
BORDER AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BY
FRIDAY THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL
RETROGRADING A BIT AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AS LOW LVL ESE FLOW SHOULD
PUSH HIGHER AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR AND NRN
SECTIONS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SAT-SUN...00Z GFS PROGS AN EASTERLY WAVE WITH SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND A SURGE IN THE LOW LVL SOUTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ONSHORE MOVING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS SOME DRYING IS PROGD WITH DEEP LYR RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 17/16Z...VFR ALL SITES...CIGS AOA FL100 N OF KISM-KMLB. BTWN
17/16Z-17/18Z...SFC WNDSHFT FM S TO E/SE KDAB-KSUA ASSOCD WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS
DVLPG ALL SITES. BTWN 17/18Z-17/22Z...SFC WNDSHFT FROM S/SW TO SE AT
KSFB/KMCO/KISM AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND...SEABREEZE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH KLEE...INCRSG MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS COVERAGE FM
ISOLD TO SCT ALL SITES...CONVECTION CONTG THRU 18/03Z DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E. AFT 18/03Z...VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS PARKED JUST N OF THE NRN BAHAMAS AND
EXTENDING JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE
SRLY BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT AREAWIDE...UP TO 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF PORT CANAVERAL THRU LATE EVNG.

TUE-THU...TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD THRU MIDWEEK WILL
PREVENT THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER N THAN LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW BREEZE WILL RESULT WITH SEAS
2-3FT NEARSHORE...3-4FT OFFSHORE. SCT SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE THRU MID
WEEK WITH STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

FRI-SAT...ATLC RIDGE WILL DRIFT N INTO CENTRAL FL LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE ERN SEABOARD TROF WEAKENS AND IS BRIDGED BY ITS POST FRONTAL
CONTINENTAL RIDGE. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BACKING TO THE S/SE
10-15KTS. SEAS TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE. STORM COVERAGE
TO DIMINISH AS STEERING FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS ONSHORE WITH
THE PASSING RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  73  90 /  30  30  30  30
MCO  73  93  73  93 /  30  40  20  40
MLB  75  90  75  90 /  30  40  30  40
VRB  74  89  75  89 /  30  40  30  40
LEE  74  94  75  93 /  20  30  20  30
SFB  74  94  75  94 /  30  40  20  30
ORL  75  94  76  93 /  30  40  20  40
FPR  73  89  74  88 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST....BRAGAW
IMPACT WX...LASCODY