479
FXUS64 KSJT 171728
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1228 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Expect mainly a dry forecast today and tonight as the storm system
is east of our area. However, the combination of surface heating,
some low level moisture and weak instability may result in a few
thunderstorms mainly across the northern Big Country and Northwest
Hill Country during the afternoon and early evening. The main
hazards will be dangerous lightning and gusty winds. Highs today
will be in the upper 70s and 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Hot and dry conditions will be the theme for much of the long term
forecast, at least through Wednesday next with the approach of
another cold front on Wednesday and upper-level disturbance on
Thursday bringing an increased chance for showers and
thunderstorms mid-to-late next week. High temperatures across the
weekend are likely to range in the upper 90s to near 103 in some
areas for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. General upper level
ridging will build across the area through Tuesday next week,
with breezy southerly surface flow persisting across much of the
region through Wednesday morning.

What looks to be a weaker cold front will track through West
Central Texas on Wednesday, mainly moderating temperatures but
potentially bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the eastern
portions of our area. By Thursday, an upper-level disturbance
will track from west to east across the area and aide in the
development of some showers and thunderstorms across much of West
Central Texas. Currently, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty
in both of these scenarios, especially with regards to coverage
and strength, but is it something that most models are beginning
to agree on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings at most the terminals for a few hours
this morning. Also, some patchy fog is possible. Expect VFR
conditions to return from mid morning through the rest of the TAF
forecast. Hi-Res models are indicating isolated thunderstorms
along the I-10 corridor during the late afternoon and early
evening, but will keep thunder out of the southern terminals for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  93  68  96 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  59  98  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    61  98  70  99 /  20   0   0   0
Brownwood   60  92  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  61  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       60  97  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       61  93  68  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...21