472
FXUS64 KSJT 191112
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
612 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

No significant changes from the previous forecast for today and
tonight. We`re still expecting to be dry, breezy, and very hot,
with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs should
again range from the mid 90s to around 103 degrees. Winds will
pick up out of the south to 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts by mid
to late morning. The warm weather will continue through tonight
with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate hot and dry weather will result
from a high pressure ridge that sits over our area through Tuesday.
Then, a frontal boundary will affect the area on Wednesday
afternoon, which will limit high temperatures across the Big
Country to the middle 80s. This frontal boundary will combine with
a dryline off to the west to support thunderstorm development
during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Additional
activity is possible across the region on Thursday along the
dryline as a minor disturbance aloft also moves through. All of
this activity will have to be monitored closely for severe weather
potential. Conditions appear to be favorable for possible severe
weather on Wednesday and Thursday. With regards to Tuesday, a
Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. However, it remains
to be seen if any thunderstorm development can be initiated. If it
does initiate, then these thunderstorms will certainly carry the
risk of severe weather. However, chances remain low (less than
20%) for thunderstorm development. These details will become more
clear over the next few days as to exactly what kind of threats
may emerge. Please check back over the next day or two for
updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR with gusty south winds today. Winds will diminish after 00Z
tonight, with VFR conditions through most of the overnight hours.
Could see some MVFR ceilings sneak into KJCT late in the TAF
forecast but will hold off on introducing anything just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  72  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 103  70 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   101  69  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   92  68  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 100  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       99  69  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       94  68  94  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20