155
FXUS64 KSJT 150805
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
305 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Temperatures have climbed into the 80s to lower 90s across our area
this afternoon. With an ill-defined dryline setting up just west of
our area, a couple of hi-res models indicate a possibility for a few
isolated high-based storms to develop along it and move east-
southeast into our area. Carrying an isolated thunderstorm
possibility in the western Big Country and Concho Valley into the
southeastern part of our area late this afternoon and evening. With
downdraft CAPE values 1000-1500 J/Kg and marginal effective bulk
shear (25-30 knots), a strong to severe storm would be possible with
wind gusts over 60 mph and hail up to quarter size. Temperatures
will be warmer tonight with southeast to south winds, and overnight
lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s.

A shortwave ridge aloft will shift east over Texas tonight into
Wednesday. An upper low/trough will move slowly east across the
northern Baja region toward far northwestern Mexico on Wednesday.
The flow aloft will become southwest over our area, out ahead of
this system. With a surface low developing over eastern New Mexico
and tightening surface pressure gradient, increased and gusty
south winds are expected for our area Wednesday. A north-south
dryline will be positioned in West Texas. May have a weak embedded
disturbance approach the area in southwest flow aloft. While the
primary possibility of thunderstorm development will be to our
west (and closer to the dryline), carrying a slight chance PoP
along the western border of our forecast area in the late
afternoon. Temperatures will be a little warmer Wednesday, with
highs from the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...Severe Thunderstorms Thursday...

The next upper level disturbance/storm system(currently off southern
CA coast per WV imagery) is due in by middle of this week and at
the surface will see a weak surface cold front across the Permain
Basin to along I-20 across north Texas and a dryline across the
Trans Pecos for most of Thursday. At least the southern 2/3 of the
area will be in the warm sector, mainly along and south of I-20,
with rich low level moisture and strong afternoon instability(SBCAPE
3000+). The Hi- Res models indicate morning showers and
thunderstorms with large hail the main threat across the northern
and eastern parts of the area. There should be enough recovery
time and surface heating for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
to develop Thursday afternoon and evening. The buoyancy/deep layer
shear profiles favor supercells in the warm sector(the Concho
Valley into the Heartland having the best threat). The main
hazards will be very large hail, isolated tornadoes and damaging
winds. These storms should congeal and move east, becoming more of
a damaging wind and hail threat during the evening. Going with
medium to high chances of rain and severe wording in the grids for
Thursday and Thursday evening.

Look for dry and hot weather this weekend through early next week
as a sub-tropical ridge builds across the area along with an 850
MB thermal ridge just west of our area. Highs will be in the 90s
to around 103 mainly across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards
Plateau.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions with increasing southerly winds this morning and
widespread low-level wind shear through sunrise. Winds will
increase through afternoon with gusts over 25 KT possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     90  65  79  60 /   0  20  80  40
San Angelo  93  67  88  60 /   0  10  60  10
Junction    95  68  89  63 /   0  10  60  10
Brownwood   89  64  77  62 /   0  20  90  30
Sweetwater  91  65  80  60 /   0  20  80  40
Ozona       90  67  91  60 /  10  20  20  10
Brady       90  66  79  62 /   0  10  80  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...SK