Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 301800 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
100 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

For the 18Z TAFs, near blizzard to blizzard conditions around
KGUY and KDHT will be slowly improving this afternoon as the
vigorous upper level storm system moves farther northeast away
from the region. Conditions will become VFR at all TAF sites by
sunset. The Aviation Weather Warning currently in effect for KAMA
and Tradewinds Airport will remain in effect until 01Z this



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

For the 12z TAFs...
No real change from forecast of six hours ago.  Airport Weather
Warning for northwest surface gusts above 40 kt continues until
01z Monday for Amarillo area airports.

Otherwise, IFR to MVFR ceilings will prevail through early to mid
afternoon. Abrupt clearing will occur shortly thereafter.
Surface winds diminish early this evening, with VFR conditions to


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 442 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

Snow continues to fall across the Panhandles this morning and
should continue through the morning. Expect the snow to end over
the afternoon hours beginning in the south and west and ending in
the northeast by late afternoon. Water vapor imagery over night
showed the upper low crossing the Panhandles and has the eastern
Texas Panhandle in the dry slot. The central and western parts of
the area are currently seeing snowfall from the backside of the
low and the OK Panhandle will see the greatest amount of new
snowfall today as they will be in it the longest.

The pressure gradient is expected to tighten and ramp up the
northerly winds as the system heads out. This has made for a
complicated forecast for today. Short range and hi-res models are
all indicating that we should see sustained winds of 35-45 mph.
This combined with the falling snow will cause significant
reductions in visibility. For now, have held off on turning
anything into a Blizzard Warning. Confidence at this point is low
with a lack of good feeling as to how this is all going to play
out. This snow has been fairly wet, so not really expected much of
a drifting or ground blizzard event. The only concern would be for
locations that have ongoing snow falling with these winds if
visibility can be reduced to one-quarter mile. We are already
seeing gusts of 40 kts this morning, which is well before what the
models have been suggesting. Have good confidence we will verify
the Wind Advisory, but confidence is low on if it needs to be
started sooner or if winds will get higher and a High Wind Warning
may be needed. Will just have to monitor the trends for now.

After we get past this system and the freezing temps overnight for
the northwestern third of the area, things will warm up and dry
out. The next upper level trough will make its way here by late
Tuesday night into Wednesday and bring a chance for isolated
thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected at this time as
instability looks very weak. Storms that get going will need to be
elevated for anything to be strong as forecast soundings show a
moderate cap. The end of the week dries out again as ridging takes
hold through the weekend.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...Gray...

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...

     Blizzard Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hartley...Sherman.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Beaver.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver.

     Blizzard Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.


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