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000
FXUS64 KAMA 101130
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP WINDS
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 12
KTS OR LESS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS
DOWNSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEARING THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON
COASTS NOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WYOMING BY TUESDAY. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIVELY TILTED AND IT WILL START TO
SPLIT AT THIS TIME WITH PART OF THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE MOVING
SOUTHWEST INTO NEVADA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE AND IT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THIS WEST TO EAST ORIENTED TROUGH
AXIS. THIS CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY MID DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO PLOW THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER WYOMING BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE-SIDE
OF THE ROCKIES REPLACING THE LOW. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE WINDS COULD BE IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 35 MPH. WE
COULD ALSO HAVE SOME WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR NOW WILL NOT HOIST ANY WIND
HIGHLIGHTS AS IT IS UNCLEAR ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT GETS STUCK OUT IN NEVADA FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE
EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AND WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM DAY
TO DAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SOME MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING SOME POPS TO THE
FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH AND
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BELOW 10 PERCENT.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15