Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 021149 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NWD TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. KAMA SHOULD BE THE FIRST TAF SITE TO IMPROVE...
EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED BY KDHT AND KGUY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE TO S LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLD
AND REMAIN E AND S OF THE TERMINAL SITES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE BEST LIFT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

AFTER TODAY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WHEN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THIS WAY FROM THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GO UP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST
JUST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
"COOLEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE LATEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST ONCE THE RAIN
SETS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SOME AREAS REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS WITH RAIN ON ONE OF THOSE DAYS...THEN HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 70S...BUT IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL NOT BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GET STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL
RANGES AS WELL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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