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000
FXUS64 KAMA 281156
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
656 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will
generally be out of the south to southwest 10-20kts. Few low to
mid level clouds linger this morning but overall expect mostly
clear skies for the remainder of the TAF period. Kept wind shear
in the TAFS through about 13z as a 50kt low level jet remains in
place.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 442 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current 08z upper level analysis indicates semi-zonal flow over
most of the central and southern CONUS. This is primarily due to
high pressure spinning over the southern Pacific Ocean off the
Baja coast and an upper level low over Alberta Canada. Near the
surface, temperatures are in the low 70s with dew points in the
high 50s to low 60s. Winds are on the breezy side due to a fairly
strong low level jet over the Plains. The best moisture will
shift eastward and warming downslope 15-20 knot winds will
develop in response to a lee trough this afternoon. Temperatures
are expected to rise well into the 90s with low 100s in the usual
warm spots such as the Palo Duro Canyon floor. Clouds should be
few as mixing up to 600-700 mb occurs.

The zonal pattern will continue through the day Thursday.
Deterministic models bring the upper low south out of Alberta
which helps amplify the flow late Thursday over the Rockies. This
will switch winds aloft to more southwesterly as a shortwave moves
through the upper flow. In response, a lee low is expected to
develop over the Raton Mesa and eject into SW Kansas ahead of an
associated cold front. This front is expected to cross into the OK
Panhandle Thursday evening and through the Texas Panhandle
through the early morning hours Friday, although there are
considerable differences in the model output on the timing of this
front. Ahead of the front, temperatures are expected to once
again be hot as the aforementioned low enhances the downslope flow
over the area. Low 100s should be fairly common for the
Panhandles. Will have to watch areas like Boys Ranch and the PDC
floor which could approach advisory criteria heat. At this time it
looks like the northeastern zones will will be the only area to
see potential precip depending on quality of moisture as the front
moves through.

On Friday, post-frontal temperatures should be much cooler with
highs in the 80s as flow aloft becomes zonal to northwesterly. Did
increase cloud cover and winds early Friday along and behind
front. Differences in the models on the position of the front
as it stalls (and moisture availability) are noted. This will
have large implications on the potential for thunderstorm
development Friday afternoon and evening. The southern zones will
have the best chance if the ECMWF is correct. Other models have
the front pushing south of the Panhandles which would keep pops
very minimal. Any thunderstorms that do develop along the front
Friday will have some potential to become severe with strong
instability and 40-50 knot deep layer directional shear will
prevail.

For the extended...northwest flow is expected through early next
week before models indicate a fairly robust ridge build over the
southern Rockies by mid week. Thunderstorms will be possible
moving off the higher terrain mainly during the late afternoon and
into the evenings. Temperatures will be climbing back up into the
90s by Sunday and possibly well above average by mid week. For now
just went with blend as differences in H850 temps are large with
ECMWF much cooler and more moist while the GFS kicks in the
southwesterly surface winds and heats things up.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                97  69 101  65  85 /   0   0   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  98  69 100  65  87 /   0   0  10  20   5
Boise City OK              94  60  96  59  82 /   5   0   5  10   5
Borger TX                  99  72 104  68  88 /   0   0   0   5   5
Boys Ranch TX             103  68 104  65  89 /   5   0   0   0   5
Canyon TX                  98  67 102  63  87 /   5   0   0   0   5
Clarendon TX               95  69 101  67  88 /   5   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                100  62 101  62  87 /   5   0   5   5   5
Guymon OK                  97  66 100  63  84 /   0   0   5  20   5
Hereford TX               100  67 102  64  89 /   5   0   0   0   5
Lipscomb TX                96  72 102  68  88 /   0   0  10  20  10
Pampa TX                   96  70 101  66  85 /   0   0   0   5   5
Shamrock TX                95  71 101  69  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
Wellington TX              96  72 101  71  92 /   5   0   0   0  20

&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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