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000
FXUS64 KAMA 121127 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 25 KT THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND POSE
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST LAST EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE BUT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
TAIL OFF AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...NORTH
WINDS A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE TO LESS THAN
15 MPH BY MID-AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CA/WESTERN AZ.
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES AND A RETURN OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F.

A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL WORK EAST FROM AZ
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN /AND SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY/
ALONG WITH FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.

QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW SHARPLY SOUTH THIS WAVE WILL DIVE ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...AND HOW QUICKLY AND TO
WHAT MAGNITUDE IT WILL DEEPEN. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE FOR THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFS LOOKS TO BE A STRONG OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF. THUS FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED THE MORE
TEMPERED ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH OFFERS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
GFS AND MUCH WEAKER CMC GEM SOLUTION. THE ECMWF QUICKLY DIVES THE
SHORTWAVE SOUTH ACROSS NM...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BRINGING A SHOT OF PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERMAL
PROFILES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN...BUT AGAIN
THERE/S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM BACK UP QUICKLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE BY THE END OF THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL
BUT THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES TODAY. HOWEVER...NORTH WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THESE LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE REACHED...WHICH ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                53  28  66  36  64 /   0   0   0   5  10
BEAVER OK                  54  26  69  37  59 /   0   0   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              51  26  65  36  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
BORGER TX                  54  34  68  40  63 /   0   0   0   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              54  29  68  35  64 /   0   0   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  54  26  66  34  66 /   0   0   0   5  10
CLARENDON TX               55  30  67  38  66 /   0   0   0   5  10
DALHART TX                 51  24  66  34  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
GUYMON OK                  55  25  69  36  60 /   0   0   0   5  10
HEREFORD TX                53  25  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                55  24  69  37  62 /   0   0   0   5  10
PAMPA TX                   52  30  65  37  62 /   0   0   0   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                56  28  67  38  64 /   0   0   0   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              58  29  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08