Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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370
FXUS64 KAMA 171119
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.AVIATION...

For the 12Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period.

Low level wind shear will be possible Wednesday morning. Just like
this morning, conditions will be on the low end but still meeting
criteria for both speed shear and directional shear.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 503 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Not too many changes made to the forecast package compared to
the one previously issued. Dry weather will prevail across the
forecast area through the daytime hours on Friday as west to
northwest flow aloft continues over the region. A minor upper
level shortwave trof is progged by short and medium range models
to track across the srn high plains late Thursday and Thursday
night. Most models are dry with this system except the 00Z GFS.
Have omitted pops for this package during this time frame and
leaned with the majority solution pending better model agreement
with respect to precipitation potential.

Enough moisture may be in place later Friday into Saturday across
mainly the eastern zones ahead of the next upper level shortwave
trof and associated cold front to support mention of pops. Medium
range models, including the 00Z ECMWF, are in much better agreement
with the upper level trof being an open wave and moving across
the region Saturday as opposed to closing off downstate. The
corresponding cold front is fcst to track across the OK and TX
Panhandles on Saturday. Based on better model agreement this
morning, have restricted pops to the eastern sections Friday night
through Saturday night. A return to dry weather is then anticipated
Sunday through next Tuesday.

Andrade

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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