Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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910
FXUS64 KAMA 062334 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
534 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE OTHER THAN
WINDS BECOMING NW TO N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO CLOUDINESS
AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP PV ANALYSIS NOW
EMERGING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM BROADENS AND MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IT WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN ONLY WEAK
POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES SHOWN IN SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING QUITE DRY
AND ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH...NO CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BRB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE...LEESIDE TROUGHING SETS UP AND WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 70S.

WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SOME ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND FORCE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING WARM AND NO APPRECIABLE COLD AIR
INTRUDING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND IF MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN APPROACH
THE AREA AND GIVE EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS...BUT FOR NOW THINGS
LOOK DRY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



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