Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
374 FXUS64 KAMA 151111 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 611 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Shower and thunderstorm chances persist for the panhandle during the next 7 days, peaking Wed-Thu. - High pressure will likely bring the return of near to above average temperatures this weekend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Get ready to soak in a summer breeze today because winds are forecast to be sustained out of the southwest at 15-20 mph with slightly higher gusts at times. These downsloping winds will help high temperatures warm into the 90s, but will also help keep humidity at bay as drier air mixes down over most of the Panhandles. We`ve seen a downward trend in precipitation chances for this afternoon-evening, and investigation of latest hi-res CAMs and other model data only further reinforces this trend (<10% POPs). Unfavorable synoptic positioning and some dry air mixing will make it very difficult for convection to survive the trip off the higher terrain, but the northwest Panhandles would be the favored area if any storms can survive. Tomorrow, a shortwave trough is progged to swing across the central Great Plains, generating a complex of storms near the sand hills of Nebraska. CAMs show this system propagating an outflow boundary southward towards the Panhandles, which would act as a focus for new convective potential favoring the northern Panhandles in the evening- overnight hours. Lack of wind shear is still a limiting factor against a more organized severe threat, but moisture and instability will be in ample supply (PWATs >1.5" & MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg). Gusty winds would be the main threat based on inverted V signatures and decent DCAPE values >1000 J/kg, but some hail can`t entirely be ruled out as well. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A minor perturbation aloft may help spur up another round of showers and storms Thursday, in conjunction with the potential stalled outflow boundary. Again, very high moisture content and moderate instability should exist along and behind the boundary, but meager shear values <20 kts suggests organized severe storms aren`t very likely. If training storms occur between Wed & Thu night, localized higher rainfall totals >1" may pose at least some flooding threat. Overall precip chances are still 40-70%, peaking across the northern Panhandles, with lowest chances across the southeast. If nothing else, increased cloud cover will keep highs on the cooler side in the mid 80s to low 90s. The suite of latest ensemble guidance foreshadows us probably not mentioning anything being "cooler" for some time, as a ridge of high pressure grows over the southern Plains into next week. By the weekend and into Monday, probabilistic data sets paint low to medium chances for high temperatures to reach or exceed 100 across at least the eastern Panhandles. Recent runs of the deterministic GFS go so far as placing temperatures of 100-105 across a vast majority of the Panhandles Monday afternoon. While this is on the higher end of guidance, it does support and illustrate the strong warming trend favored by the strengthening ridge over the region. Those who don`t reach the century mark have high chances for temperatures in the mid to upper 90s each day. Daytime heating and any "ridge rider" disturbances may still take advantage of any lingering moisture, continuing to support daily precip chances of ~10-20% Fri-Mon. Harrel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 442 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Expect breezy south winds around 15 to 20 kts, especially between 16Z and 00Z Wed. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...36