Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250918
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
418 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING NORTHEAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC
TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO CROSS NORTHERN OHIO/PA SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS IN ITS WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST LAKESHORE COUNTIES
THROUGH 10AM. THIS IS REALLY FOR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. OVERALL
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO ONLY 30 MPH OR SO...BUT WINDS ON THE LAKE ARE
HIGHER. LIMITED OBSERVATIONS TO LOOK AT BUT DUNKIRK NY STILL
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. PRESQUE ISLE HAS BEEN LESS BUT WINDS ON THE
LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP THE
WIND ADVISORY AND RE-EVALUATE AS THE MORNING GOES ON.

REALLY NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE PULLED UP THROUGH MI AND
INTO CANADA. THEREFORE NO WHITE CHRISTMAS. STILL A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN AND ALSO MAY JUST SEE SOME PLAIN DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REALLY CONFINED TO THIS MORNING AS WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL BE PRETTY MUCH
WHERE THEY ARE AT RIGHT NOW...UPPER 30S WITH A FEW IN THE LOWER
40S. MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT WILL BE OPTIMISTIC FOR SOME BREAKS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL RELATIVELY MILD WITH NO
SOURCE OF COLD AIR WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. A SHORTWAVE EMERGES
FROM THE ROCKIES LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LAKES
INTO CANADA AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OH/PA SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
IT DOES SO...THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND WEAKEN WHILE THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES HOLDS AND ONLY FLATTENS WITH TIME. IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME ON SATURDAY TO BE ABLE TO GET PRECIP INTO NW OHIO.
WILL FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD SO EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN WITH SOME SNOW CHANCES WITH THE ADVANCING
COLD AIR TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY. WILL LINGER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO SUNDAY BUT HIGH
BUILDING IN MAY END THAT ALL TOGETHER. WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
MOISTURE. THE GFS IS VERY DRY FOR THE PERIOD WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
MUCH MORE MOISTURE FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF
THAT KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS THE
LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 16C. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST SO WENT DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WENT A LITTLE
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE MAINLY FOR THE HIGHS BASED ON THE FORECASTED
850 MB TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT SO THE WIND
GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE ROUTINE...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OR SO
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY LATE CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT QUICKLY FROM THE WEST TODAY
AS WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL DOWNGRADE
THE GALE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ON THE EAST END
CONTINUING THE GALE THROUGH 21Z/4PM TODAY AND THEN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THAT. THE FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TODAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ON FRIDAY
SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AND WHETHER A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END.

THE WATER LEVEL HAS DROPPED BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK. SOME QUESTION
HOW LOW WILL IT GET WITH THE WINDS NOT THAT STRONG ON THE WEST END.
WILL NOT LET IT DROP BELOW 2 FEET BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK AND
THEN IT SHOULD SLOSH BACK ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY NOON.

A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY PROMPTING YET
ANOTHER THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BY SUNDAY
MORNING A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE AND THE WINDS WILL DECREASE.
THE RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...THUS
NOT EXPECTING THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ012-089.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-145>149-
     165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA



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