Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 251117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
717 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

The region will continue to be sandwiched between two areas of
low pressure, one to the west and one to the east, today
through Wednesday. Low pressure will eventually track into the
Great Lakes Thursday bringing a cold front through the area.
High pressure will then build in across the region briefly
Thursday night.


Showers continue across portions of eastern Ohio into northwest
Pennsylvania this morning. Have updated PoPs a bit to better
represent the current precipitation. Still no changes in
thinking that the showers will quickly come to an end by late
this morning into early this afternoon everywhere.

Original Discussion...
A low over the Carolinas will continue to move up the eastern
seaboard today. This has brought widespread clouds to eastern
parts of the area, with more scattered clouds farther west.
There is not much moisture to work with, but we have seen a few
light showers/sprinkles move into northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania this morning. Expect a continued chance of light
showers/sprinkles from near Cleveland eastward through the
morning hours. Any chance of precipitation will quickly come to
an end by early this afternoon as the low continues its
northeastward trek.

Temperatures this afternoon should be similar to yesterday in
most areas, though it will be a little warmer along coastal
areas. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 50s. A
very warm April day is in store for Wednesday with many
locations likely reaching the lower 80s for highs - generally
15 to 20 degrees above normal.


Dry weather will continue through Wednesday night, with low
temperatures closer to the normal daytime high for this time of
year (lower to middle 60s). A low across the Upper Great
Lakes/Southern Ontario Thursday will force a cold front through
the area Thursday afternoon. This will trigger showers and
thunderstorms progressing from west to east across Ohio during
the early to mid afternoon and eventually reaching northwest
Pennsylvania by the late afternoon/evening hours.

A strong shear profile will be present Thursday
morning/afternoon along with marginal instability. Therefore,
there is at least a chance of a stronger storm or two. One of
the main limiting factors will be moisture as the low occludes.
High pressure builds back into the area Thursday night in the
wake of the cold front. High temperatures Friday still look to
be above normal with just a slight chance of a shower during the
afternoon hours as the next low approaches from the southwest.


Models are in decent agreement with the storm system that will
impact the region Saturday through Monday. Still have concerns that
the models are ejecting this low faster than what will really occur.
If it is slower the lift near the warm front may end up causing a
longer period of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into early
Sunday. At some point the region looks as if it will be in the warm
sector. This will likely be on Sunday but as stated above the timing
is still in question. The cold front may be cross the region Monday
morning with showers/thunderstorms along it.

Temperatures Saturday into Sunday will all hinge on the location of
the warm front. In any event all locations should see highs above
seasonal averages. Uncertainly remains for highs on Monday since we
do not trust the timing of the front moving across the area.


.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Light showers have expanded a bit more than earlier anticipated.
So far the easterly downsloping flow has kept MVFR ceilings
from developing. Still something to watch for where the heavier
showers occur but confidence is low that the MVFR ceilings will
develop. The showers will end near or shortly after noon with
middle and high level cloud cover left in its wake.

East to southeast winds will continue for all locations into
the afternoon. A few locations will gust to around 20 knots at

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in advance of a cold front Thursday
and then with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into
early Friday morning.


Winds continue to decrease on Lake Erie as low pressure moves off
the middle Atlantic Coast. This has allowed waves to subside to 2 to
3 feet at most locations. The easterly flow may pick back up again
this afternoon but it appears it will be too short lived to warrant
keeping the small craft advisory going. So we will allow the small
craft advisory to come down.

Winds will shift more to the the southeast by Wednesday evening as
low pressure moves to near Lake Michigan. Winds will become southwest
to west as the cold front crosses the region on Thursday with small
craft conditions anticipated late Thursday morning through the
afternoon. High pressure will briefly build onto the lake Thursday
night into early Friday brining light winds.




NEAR TERM...Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Mullen
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