Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281146
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
746 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the area today followed by a
weak cold front arriving from the west tonight. A surface ridge
will expand from Plains across the Ohio Valley on Memorial Day
followed by a stronger cold front on Tuesday. High pressure will
build into the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lowered cloud cover early this morning based on latest
satellite imagery. A cloud deck can be seen along the warm front
just to our south and will expect to see a rapid expansion of
the cu field this morning as the warm front continues to lift
north.

Previous discussion...Morning surface analysis depicts low
pressure over Illinois with the warm front extending east
towards Dayton. The warm front will lift back north into the
area this afternoon as the low moves to southeast Michigan by
around 20Z. The warm front is expected to stall in the vicinity
of Lake Erie and the humidity will be noticeably higher by this
afternoon as dewpoints reach the mid to upper 60s across all but
the far northeast. Highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper
70s and went near MAV guidance most areas except a little
cooler at ERI where flow may switch around off the lake. ML Cape
values are forecast to reach 1500-1700 J/kg across NW and north
central Ohio this afternoon. Thunderstorm initiation is
expected in the 19-21Z time frame as shortwave energy and
accompanying mid-level moisture catches up with the warm front.
Shear will increase through the column during this time and will
expect convection to become increasingly organized as we head
towards evening. The Storm Predication Center has placed the
area in a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms with damaging
winds and hail being the primary threat late afternoon into this
evening. Will also need to watch for rotation with storms along
the warm front and near Lake Erie where backed surface winds
will lead to higher 0-1km shear. The tornado potential is low
but can not be ruled out entirely. Storms will increase in
coverage from west to east this evening as large scale ascent
increases along the cold front and in advance of the trough
aloft. If storms merge into a larger cluster across the east
then the chance for locally heavy rain or flooding will
increase. Much drier air arrives from the west behind the
cluster of storms and precip should be east of the area by
around 2 AM. Lows should only drop into the upper 50s behind the
front overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge will expand east into the Ohio Valley on Memorial Day
with winds backing to southwest ahead of a stronger front that
will arrive Monday night. Winds will be fairly breezy with good
mixing and partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures may over-
achieve in this pattern and with most sites only a degree or two
lower than Sunday but will feel more comfortable as dewpoints
continue to fall.

Several models are showing a ribbon of deeper moisture sliding
northeast across the area in advance of the cold front late Monday
night. Will continue with low 20-30 pops along the front as a few
spotty showers could develop.

Temperatures will be cooler again Tuesday into Wednesday as the
upper level trough moves east across the Great Lakes Region.
Shortwave energy moving around the trough combined with diurnal
heating on Wednesday may cause scattered showers to develop,
mainly in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall the region will hang on to the troughing across the Great
Lakes from an upper low centered across James Bay that will drift
across Quebec through the end of the week. A surface ridge will be
holding on across the southeast U.S. This high looks to influence the
upper Ohio Valley Thursday, but the area becomes vulnerable toward
Friday/Saturday as a stronger impulse rotates around the periphery of
upper low. Therefore have held on to the dry forecast for Thursday,
but have the mention of precipitation on Friday and Saturday...low
chances for now with plenty of uncertainty in details/timing this
far out. Used a blend of guidance for temperatures through the end
of the week, which places us fairly close to normals.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Warm front resides near CMH as of 1130Z and will lift north to
near the Lake Erie shoreline this afternoon as low center from
east-central IL makes it to northwest OH. Band of IFR ceilings
accompanies the warm front and may reach into FDY/MFD first
thing this morning. Otherwise cumulus development expected,
possibly touching MVFR for a bit before lifting to VFR.
Encompassed the entire window of possible thunderstorms with a
VCTS and attempted to narrow the highest chances down with a
TEMPO group(s). May have early afternoon convection with the
warm front, but best chances arrive with the cold front for late
afternoon and evening. Of course IFR a good bet with the TS.
Decent clearing to take place in the wake of the front across
western OH before 06Z Mon, while eastern terminals will likely
remain MVFR for a while longer, possibly up through 12Z MON for
YNG/ERI. Light east winds will veer to the south and pick up in
the warm sector. West winds follow behind the cold front.

OUTLOOK...Areas non-VFR conditions lingering across the far
east early Monday morning. Non-VFR at times Monday night
through Thursday in showers/thunderstorms as an upper level
trough persists over the central Great Lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
East winds will take place on the lake for much of today while a
warm front pushes north across Ohio.  Thunderstorms are expected
especially from late afternoon through the evening. Some may be
strong to severe. As low pressure tracks toward the western basin
this evening winds will veer to the south and southwest tonight.
West-southwest winds will follow in the wake of the cold front for
the overnight. By Monday morning the lake will be choppy across the
east end with the long fetch. A small craft advisory may end up
being needed for the PA waters Monday/Memorial Day and possibly
again on Tuesday. The west to southwest flow will continue into
Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Mullen/Oudeman



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