Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 260718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
318 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will weaken today and
tonight. This will allow a cold front to move through the area
Wednesday spreading a cooler, more seasonable air mass across
the area.



The strong upper ridge over the region will weaken tonight into
Wednesday as will the associated surface system. This will
allow a cold front across the nations midsection to move east
across the region Wednesday. Today will be very similar to the
previous several days with highs around 90 and plenty of sun.
Some question as to the chance of rain/thunder on Wednesday with
the MET guidance largely slight chance or below while the MAV
shows a chance pop east, likely for the afternoon based on
frontal timing, and a sight chance west. With the surface low
far north into Canada feel the bulk of the precip will be
outside of the area. Still with dewpoints in the 60s its hard
not to buy into low chance pops east in the afternoon. Highs
Wednesday still above normal but mainly in the 80s.


A more seasonable pattern is expected during the second half of the
work week. Brief high pressure will nudge into the region Wednesday
night through Thursday night, providing mostly dry conditions and
slightly below normal temperatures. Highs on Thursday are only
expected to reach the mid/upper 70s across the region. After lows in
the 50s Wednesday night, lows are expected to drop into the mid 40s
to low 50s across the area Thursday night.

A fairly potent shortwave will drop southeast through the Great
Lakes Friday and Friday night. This may bring a few showers to
portions of the area. There has been two noticeable trends with the
00Z suite of guidance. The first of which is a slightly weaker/more
sheared shortwave moving through the area compared to previous
forecast runs, and second a slightly northward shift in the best
forcing and surface reflection. The 00Z ECMWF and GEM are actually
showing very little precip south and west of a Toledo to Canton
line. However, chances are looking fairly good for precip across
extreme NE OH and NW PA, especially with an added lake contribution
and decent low/mid level lapse rates with the coldest air aloft
tracking over this region. Went ahead with likely pops and a slight
chance of thunder Friday afternoon, with up to 500 j/kg of lake
induced MUCAPE, with a fairly sharp pop gradient to the south and
west. Lingering precip chances will end through the overnight as
much drier air and high pressure filters into the region. Highs on
Friday will remain in the mid/upper 60s across the area.


Quiet long term period expected as high pressure builds across the
region this weekend. After a cool day on Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 60s, and lows Saturday night in the low/mid 40s, possibly
even upper 30s in favored cool spots around the area, a warming
trend will take place across the area Sunday and Monday. Upper ridge
amplification across the eastern CONUS in response to significant
longwave troughing across the intermountain west will allow for
return flow setup with surface high centered east of the area,
and continuous WAA into the region through even the middle part
of next week. Highs by Monday will return to the low to mid 70s,
a couple of degrees above normal for this time of year.


.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure will continue VFR conditions through the period.
The only exception of course will be patchy early morning fog
where conditions may briefly drop to ifr mainly nwrn OH.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Wednesday afternoon and again on
Friday in sct shra with a small chance of tsra.


Quiet conditions expected on the lake today and tonight with high
pressure overhead, as winds will be light and variable. A cold front
will push across the lake on Wednesday, with winds increasing out of
the northwest during the day, turning northerly 10-15 kts by
Wednesday night, with a very low end chance for small craft
conditions. Winds will subside to 10 kts or less Thursday as high
pressure build across the region. A stronger front will cross the
lake on Friday with winds increasing out of the northwest, then
north 15-20 kts by Friday night, with a better shot a small craft
conditions. High pressure builds back across the lake Saturday with
winds subsiding and remaining 10 kts or less Saturday night through


Upcoming records for Today 9/26:

TOL 92/1998

CAK 89/1900

MFD 87/1998

CLE 91/1998

ERI 89/1998

YNG 89/1934




SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
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