Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241437
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
937 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FINE TUNED THE MORNING UPDATE AS FAR AS TIMING THE SHOWERS/LOCAL
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WENT AHEAD AND PUT THE HIGH WIND
WARNING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO EFFECT. IT IS
POLICY TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER THE ENHANCED WIND THREAT EVEN
WITH OTHER WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT SO WE WILL MONITOR
THE THIS THREAT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES EAST. THE
SHEAR IS STRONGER FARTHER EAST BUT THE JET ENERGY IS SLIGHTLY
BETTER FARTHER WEST SO WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

RECORDS HIGHS ARE WARM TODAY...UP TOWARD 70...BUT WE WILL TAKE A
RUN AT THEM IN THE EAST...MOST LIKELY REACHING THE MID 60S. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL AFTER FROPA BUT NOT A TERRIBLY FAST DROP...
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 40S ACROSS NW OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON,

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE CLIMBED ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH...FINDLAY SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE. PROBLEM IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE FORCED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONGER WINDS THERE.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR A PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. I WILL ADD A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GROUND CREWS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO AIRCRAFT FOR HIGH WIND SITUATIONS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE
WEST OF CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011-013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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