Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 242357
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
757 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A front north of Lake Erie will move little overnight but will
move back south of the lake on Saturday where it will stall
again. Low pressure over Oklahoma will move to northern Illinois
by early Sunday and then across the central Great Lakes Sunday
night and Monday. A front from this low will move across the
local area late Sunday. Another area of low pressure will pass
just to the southeast of the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Quite the evening for late March with temperatures dropping
from the 70s into the 60s. Skies are clear to partly cloudy with
some high clouds except for northwest PA and adjusted the
hourly sky cover forecast early tonight. Held back on the
shower threat another hour or two until well after midnight for
most areas as the current showers were well north of the area
this evening. Made minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures
based on the current trends otherwise no other major changes to
the overnight forecast.

Original "Tonight" discussion...
The shower activity from earlier in the day has ended and much
of the area should be dry overnight. The earlier activity was
likely caused by some mid level warming and moistening.
Overnight precip chances will be confined to mainly NW PA which
will be closest to the front. The front will begin to drift back
south after 06z and it is possible that the NW tip of the area
could see some showers by 12z. Temps will again be tricky as it
has gotten warm today. Guidance numbers are in good agreement
and will be followed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Precip chances will continue to be a challenge during the
period. It looks like much of the area could remain dry both
Saturday and Saturday night. Precip chances will be mainly
confined to the western and northern ends of the area. Have
gone ahead and lowered precip chances most areas for both
periods. No longer expecting all day rains just passing showers
from time to time.  The other challenge for Saturday is the
front which will move back south of the lake by midday.
Depending on which guidance you believe the front will be
through CLE between mid and late morning with temps falling
considerably behind this feature. Lows near the lakeshore will
likely occur by mid morning. Further inland it will be another
warm day so by 18z there could be a 20 degree or more
temperature gradient. Precip chances will finally advance to the
southeastern end of the area on Sunday as the surface low
crosses the western lakes. A front from this low will lift
across the area by the end of the day. Will go with high pops
and warm temps all areas. Sunday will also see the best chances
for thunder as surface dewpoints will be in the lower 50s.
Things will try to dry out from southwest to northeast on Sunday
night. Cannot rule out a few showers on Monday. It will again
be warm with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Precip chances
will begin to increase again Monday night as another low
approaches from the southwest. Lot`s of model differences with
that system and those can be dealt with later.

Have stayed on the warm side of guidance for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rather fast zonal flow with progressive embedded cut off lows will
persist across the eastern half of the US during the period. A weak
system will be exiting the region Tuesday with a few lingering
showers over the eastern half of the CWA mainly in the morning. Weak
seasonably cool high pressure will build by to the north and produce
a cool northerly flow off of still chilly Lake Erie.  The next
system will approach the region Thursday with some uncertainty in
timing and phasing of the northern and southern jet streams. The
ECMWF phases both streams into another major storm west of the
region while the GFS is weaker and slower with a more southern
track. In either case moisture will move into the region late
Thursday or Thursday night and last into Friday with showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Stationary front across central lower MI and lower Ontario will
sag southward tonight and through Saturday morning. VFR to
start...but accompanying the front will be lower ceilings and
scattered showers. As it looks right now ERI will be impacted
between 09Z and 12Z with a wind shift to the northeast and MVFR
and IFR conditions moving inland. TOL and CLE will also likely
see MVFR conditions later in the morning and the wind shift.
Both sites will be borderline IFR. Not sure how much that will
push inland. Other than these northern terminals...other sites
should be VFR Saturday with the front stalling across northern
OH. Scattered showers a possibility at any site Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Saturday night through Sunday night.
Non VFR possible again Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories are in place for the nearshore waters through
the evening for the frequent gusts around 25 knots. There will be a
drop in winds and waves overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes
with high pressure over eastern Canada. The frontal boundary over
the northern part of the lake will move south as a backdoor cold
front late tonight into early Saturday morning. This will keep rain
and cooler conditions over the lake. Northeast winds will strengthen
on Saturday afternoon as the low over Missouri deepens and moves
towards the Ohio Valley. Small craft conditions will likely develop
especially given the favorable fetch in northeast flow. Southeast
winds will develop on Sunday as the low lifts north of the region.
Conditions will continue to improve into Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...LaPlante
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Jamison


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