Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 300902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
402 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Aside from some possible virga showers this evening and tonight,
today will be another pleasant day with below seasonal average

Mid level moisture seen on water vapor upstream of the region will
advect into the area today. There is a short wave trough within this
moisture flux but will weaken or be non-existent by the time it
reaches West Texas. Surface cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado will
lead to surface lee troughing and bring winds back around to the
south this afternoon. There will be some increase in low level theta-
e values but will still result in relatively dry near surface air.
Because of this, any shower activity will have trouble reaching the
ground. Sprinkles will be possible but measurable rainfall looks to
be unlikely at this point.

A weak impulse beating over the top of the ridge Saturday could
provide a few light showers as noted above. Otherwise looking for
heights to rebuild late in the weekend in advance of the powerful
Pacific cyclonic energy steering across the west central coast
into the Great Basin Monday, then crossing the Rockies most likely
well to our north on Tuesday.

We should see two or three warm days though with increasing
breezes as surface pressures fall, until a Pacific cold front
drives eastward early Tuesday. Deep moisture flow in advance is
still hardly certain but indicated by various levels among the
solutions and supports at least low chance mention of thunder as
the height falls team with jet energy and surface convergence. As
alluded by yesterdays shift, this pattern aligns with increasing
severe thunderstorm potential mainly just to our east by Tuesday,
but with the increasing wind fields may lead to at least a small
risk for high winds and hail as the energy crosses our area Monday
night and Tuesday. At this point given the pull of the energy to
the northeast, we should see drier air flow behind mid to late
week but also only marginally cooler. RMcQueen


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