Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 291122
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
622 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening at
all three terminals with CDS being favored for the highest
chances.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains overhead this morning, but with some mid to
upper level moisture trapped in it there are some light elevated
showers developing across the Panhandle. These are not expected to
have any effect on the first period of the forecast, but it does
point to the potential for convection this afternoon and evening.
A moist upslope flow should aid this potential. With little flow
aloft a lack of organization is expected to limit coverage to
isolated to widely scattered. Conditions will be similar Sunday,
although a weakening of the ridge over northeast NM and the
northern Panhandle point to the potential for wider coverage there
with some potential to make a run at the northern zones Sunday
night. Better chances still will await to Monday through Wednesday
as the western CONUS ridge recenters over the Sierra Nevada and
southern Cascades while our part of the ridge weakens. There still
looks to be good potential for northwest flow convection each of
those days, in particular during the nighttime hours. A cool down
is also still in the cards, although the models continue to
struggle with the details given questions over cloud cover,
remnant outflow, etc. Overall, no significant changes were made
this morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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