Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 051155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
655 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FEATURE THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. AROUND THE MIDSOUTH A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING WITH 3
AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH CENTER TO THE WEST
AND THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. AS THE SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
SPARK A WARMING TREND TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE NEAR OR JUST IN EXCESS
80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
MIGRATES SE OF THE REGION WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
JUST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO DEGRADE IN ITS AMPLITUDE WITH
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST OVER THE PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL
ENSUE AND WILL SIGNAL THE START TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS A SFC LOW
DEEPENS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TWO
FEATURES THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE FORMER PROVIDING BETTER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO THE LOCAL REGION. THIS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF STORMS. AS SUCH HAVE MADE NO MENTION OF
STRONG STORMS AT THE MOMENT IN THE HWO. THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES NEAR
1.70 INCH PWAT VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS
BEST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS OVER
THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE IN THE TOP 20 PERCENT FOR PWAT VALUES
FOR THE MONTH OF MAY SO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE SFC
FRONT HANGS UP WEST OF THE REGION SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW MOVE OVER THE SFC FEATURE RESULTING
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID MAY.

MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF CHC POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. STRENTHENING NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER THIS
MORNING AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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