Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 291943
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE OVER ALABAMA WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE ECMWF KEEPS REMNANTS OF ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
WHICH EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT
DRIFTS EASTWARD CONVERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THE MODEL HAS DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH ERIKA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL TRY
TO GO WITH A BLEND WITH 20/30 POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BUT
COULD BE WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. SHRAS WEST OF KJBR WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
EAST TOWARD EASTERN ARKANSAS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING AREA OF
SHRA/TSRAS ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA COULD PUSH NW INTO NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION VCTS/VCSH AT KTUP ATTM. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 KTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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