Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221528
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1028 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...

Tropical Depression Cindy continues to track northward near the
Texas/Louisiana border this morning. A couple of rain bands have
been pushing through the Mid-South bringing a brief downpour to a
few locations. Updated earlier to lower POPS across much of North
Mississippi for the remainder of the morning as a large dry slot has
developed. Expect by Noon, development may begin to occur in this
dry slot. Although, a lot of the short term models are suggesting
best chances for convection will occur along and to the west of
Mississippi River this afternoon. Another update will be issued
around mid-day to make some additional adjustments to POPS.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

Initial rain band associated with Cindy slowly pushing north
across North Mississippi early this morning...with hourly rainfall
rates of a tenth to a quarter of an inch...with a few pockets of
moderate intensity producing slightly higher amounts. Current
temperatures were uniform in the mid 70s under thick cloud cover.
Winds were generally southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

For the next 48 hours...tropical cyclone Cindy will weaken and
transition into the mid-latitude flow this period. Models depict
her track well...taking the center from near the Texas Louisiana
coastal border north to the ARLATEX late this evening and
recurving her towards northwest Tennessee by tomorrow afternoon.
The aforementioned rain band will continue to drift north through
the area this morning...with likely redeveloping feeder-band
convection oriented south to north later today and into tonight.
This training activity will produce more localized flash flooding
and the threat for weak tornadoes...especially south of I-40 and
west of an Ashland...to a Calhoun City Mississippi line.
Convection will be low-topped with the potential for no
lightning/thunder...which may throw folks off guard of the
tornado threat. Later tonight as Cindy`s center moves into
Arkansas more widespread heavier showers will surge into the
southwest Delta counties with rain rates approaching an inch or
more an hour. Models have been consistent with this scenario with
the only change that the system is tad faster...so hopefully most
locations along the center`s path experience these rates for just a
few hours. A flash flood watch has been issued starting this
afternoon. The highest threat for damaging winds and tornadoes
will continue along and south of the center tomorrow...generally
along and south of I-40...while the highest flash flood threat
shifts to along and north of the highway. Rainfall amounts of 5+
inches are possible in this zone as the tropical moisture
interacts with a descending Midwest cold front. Cindy`s remnants
will exit the region late tomorrow night...with more sun and drier
conditions filtering in for the remainder of the weekend. Overall
temperatures this period will be below average.

Next week...zonal flow aloft coupled with surface high pressure
will provide the Midsouth with pleasant weather through at least
midweek. Southerly winds will increase moisture late in the week
that may trigger some isolated convection. Temperatures will
start off below normal...warming to near average by the weekend.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs

Rain showers associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy
will impact Aviation across the Midsouth today and tonight. Brief
periods of heavy rain may reduce visibility to MVFR levels. Cigs
will likely rise a bit today to 1500-2500 ft...then lower to
500-1000 fr tonight. We will likely see prevailing rain sometime
this afternoon...although timing is difficult to pinpoint as bands
have yet to develop. Winds will remain from the South to Southeast
through tomorrow morning generally 10-15kt.

30

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
     evening for Clay-Craighead-Greene-Lawrence-Mississippi-
     Poinsett-Randolph.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Crittenden-Cross-
     Lee AR-Phillips-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
     evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
     evening for Benton TN-Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-
     Gibson-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     Obion-Tipton-Weakley.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Fayette-Hardeman-
     Hardin-McNairy-Shelby.

&&

$$



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