Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 061725
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1125 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016
Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/
Most of the rain has exited the Midsouth. Only a little drizzle
remains in West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and should
dissipate by Noon. Temperatures aren`t warming much under cloudy
skies...although there are breaks in the clouds over
Northeast Arkansas. Expect afternoon highs only about 5-6 degrees
above current readings...mostly in the low 50s.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/
At 3 AM CST showers and a few thunderstorms were ongoing around
the region with a deepening surface low situated over north
Mississippi. 09z H5 analysis reveals an upper level low embedded
in southwesterly flow located over northeast Louisiana, with ample
moisture present locally. Surface temperatures range from the
lower 40s across northeast Arkansas this hour to the upper 50s
across portions of northeast Mississippi.
The surface low will continue its northeastward trek across the
region this morning, with wrap around moisture keeping rain
showers a possibility through the afternoon hours. Continued cloud
cover will provide little variability to temperatures, with highs
in the 50s. Surface high pressure will begin to build by this
evening, with surface winds becoming northwesterly as temperatures
cool into the upper 20s to upper 30s tonight, and cooler highs
for Wednesday ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Conditions will
remain dry for most of Wednesday under surface high pressure,
however cloud cover will not wane much neath southwesterly flow
A strong, but fairly dry, cold front will push into the region on
Wednesday night, accompanied by limited overrunning moisture.
Models vary on the amount of moisture accompanying the front, but
even the NAM as the most moist solution produces very little QPF.
Temperatures will drop in earnest, with Wednesday night lows in
the upper 20s to near 30s over the northern half of the FA and in
the low to mid 30s over the southern half. A brief rain and snow
mix will be possible over much of the northern half early on
Thursday morning as the cool air filters into the region behind
the front. However, moisture is expected to be quickly eroded by
the cool and dry air, with very light QPF amounts realized. Snow
flurry potential will exist, but is likely to be short lived with
no accumulations or significant impacts expected at this time.
The coolest air of the season settles into the region with strong
high pressure building on Thursday, with Thursday and Friday highs
only in the 30s and overnight lows each night in the low 20s and
even teens at some locales. Temperatures will rise for the weekend
as northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal, with surface winds
becoming southerly as the surface high transits east. Rain chances
return early Sunday with models depicting a deepening surface low
across the Plains by early next week. Models currently diverge on
timing and intensity solutions with this feature, with the GFS
currently more robust with decent upper level support with an
attendant upper level trough, while the ECMWF lacks this feature
and develops the surface low much later and INVOF the local area
as the upper trough finally develops early Monday. Regardless,
included chance POPs for late in the weekend and early next week
as temperatures become more seasonable.
Post frontal clouds will continue to affect the TAF sites this
period...with mainly IFR and MVFR cigs. Believe TUP will see the
worst conditions...while JBR the best. A period of VFR weather may
also be seen this evening at MEM...as well as borderline IFR
weather near sunrise. West and northwest winds will veer
north or northeast...with speeds generally between 5-10 kts.