Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 271123
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
623 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...Upper level ridge is situated over the southeast U.S.
with a closed 500 mb low moving into the central plains. Moist
and unstable southwest flow continues into the region. Upper level
disturbances continue to track through the region. One is moving
through this morning with numerous showers and thunderstorms
across Northeast Arkansas containing locally heavy rain.

Today and Tonight...Over the next 24 hours the pattern will remain
similar. Very moist air will flow into the region on southwest
flow aloft as the closed 500 mb low tracks into Western Kansas and
then north into Nebraska by Saturday morning. Several upper level
disturbances will work on the moist and unstable airmass to
produce showers and thunderstorms...especially along and west of
the Mississippi River. Strong storms are expected mainly along and
west of the Mississippi River and an isolated severe storm with
damaging winds is possible this afternoon into the evening.
Precipitable water values are quite high along and west of the
Mississippi River...greater than 1.75 inches...and these values
will continue through tonight. As a result locally heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding are also a threat. High temps will range
from the upper 70s over parts of Northeast Arkansas to near 90
over parts of Northeast Mississippi. Lows tonight will range from
65 to 70.

The weekend...Convection will become more diurnally driven this
weekend as the upper low lifts into the Upper Mississippi Valleys
and heights rise a bit. Expect scattered coverage on Saturday and
more isolated by Sunday. A few strong storms are possible each
afternoon. Overnight hours should be mainly dry. Temps will warm
to near 90 by Sunday with increasing amounts of sunshine.
Overnight lows will be 65 to 70.

Next week...Diurnal pattern continues into Monday with temps in
the upper 80s to near 90. By the middle of the week models trend
toward disagreement. The ECMWF moves an upper low across the Great
lakes with upper level disturbances moving through the Mid-South
and a cold front passing trough sometime Thursday. The GFS bring
the main upper trough much further south which results in a slower
frontal passage. Either way precipitation chances will be on the
increase Tue-Thu with temps in the upper 80s to near 90...possible
a little cooler by Thursday depending on where the front is.
Overnight lows 65 to 70. Just beyond the forecast period a cooler
and less humid period of weather is possible.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

Convection mainly to affect JBR and MEM this cycle...with
stronger activity expected during last half in MEM. Less
confidence for activity at TUP and MKL. Conditions will bounce
between VFR and MVFR in storms...and may drop to IFR at JBR. Winds
will be southeast through south...with gusts developing at MEM
...TUP and JBR. Winds will diminish slightly near sunset outside
of the higher gust with the strongest convection.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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