Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 071124
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...
REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST TENNESEE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ARE EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION TODAY BUT WILL STALL BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA.

SHORT TERM..
MOST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH.. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A FAVORABLE
PRE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS A LLJ
PULLS WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA
WHERE LIFT WILL BE GREATER. SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 2500-3500
J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S AND 0-6KM LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 DEGREES C/KM. CHANCES OF STORMS WILL WANE A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY..LEAVING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES
AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA AND THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL USHER IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100 FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELIEF WILL COME BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
REGION.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR JBR AROUND 00Z. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BRIEF IFR VIS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WIND. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT
MKL AND MEM AFTER 00Z...AND AFTER 18Z AT JBR WITH TEMPO TS FROM
00-04Z. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-15
KT...STRONGEST DURING DAYTIME HOURS.

JDS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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