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000
FXUS65 KPUB 230532
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEAK BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH
EAST WINDS KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...MAIN MONSOON PLUME HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE 20S AND 30S...QUITE A
BIT DRIER THAN YESTERDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE MONSOON PLUME IS
SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER WITH
UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION...CAPE VALUES ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
(FEW 100 J/KG) AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER SHEARS WEAK.
IN FACT...WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL CO...FLOW ALOFT IS
WEAK...AND RESULTANT STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW HIGH BASED INVERTED V STRUCTURES...SO MAIN STORM THREATS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.  HOWEVER IF DEW POINTS STAY UP IN
THE MID 40S THEN SOME POCKETS OF CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG COULD LEAD
TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  SO BURN SCARS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH
THE OVERALL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS RATHER LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...MONSOON PLUME SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH...AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION.  NOT MUCH
CHANGE FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  IN FACT...GFS AND
NAM12 BOTH DECREASE PRECIPITABLE WATERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS/I-
25 CORRIDOR.  THUS FORECAST WILL GO OUT WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...THOUGH WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN H7 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST...KEPT READINGS
BELOW 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY ACROSS THE STATE AS THE LARGE UPPER HIGH ENTRENCHED OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS SLOWLY PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FASTER
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PART OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWATS PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH
HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL MTS WITH PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE PLUME. INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE HELPS TO DEVELOP LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING GENERALLY
INVERTED V PROFILES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THAT SAID...SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE THURSDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THOUGH THE INCREASED
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY AREA WIDE...THOUGH HAVE CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A TAD...ESPECIALLY THE MAV FOR PUB.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER HIGH SLOWLY RETROGRADES SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE STATE. PASSING WAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER SENDS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE STATE THOUGH ARE ALSO INDICATING DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ARE NOW BEING INDICATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST INTO THE THE GREAT BASIN
REGION AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH INCREASING
CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. LOW CHANCE OF A TSRA LATE WED/WED
EVENING AT KALS...AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKS NORTHWARD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. STEERING CURRENTS LOOK PARALLEL TO THE
MOUNTAINS INTO WED EVENING...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSE TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FOR NOW WON`T INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
VCTS IN THE KALS TAF. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TSRA CHANCES LOOK BEST
OVER THE SAN JUANS/LA GARITAS...AND MUCH LIKE TONIGHT...EXPECT A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERCOLATE WELL PAST SUNSET UNDER LIGHT
STEERING WINDS JUST WEST OF THE UPPER HIGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN