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000
FXUS65 KPUB 052155
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
255 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING CONTINUED WELL BELOW EARLY DECEMBER
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OVER PRIMARILY
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT.

CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WELL BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS NOTED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF SNOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IS IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN BACA COUNTY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  ALSO...LIGHT GRADIENT WINDS ARE ALSO BEING NOTED
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

1040+ MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AT 06Z
FRIDAY IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA BY 00Z SATURDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE VERY COLD
AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SPEAKING OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES(AT LEAST BY SOUTHERN COLORADO
STANDARDS)...HAVE DEPICTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT WITH EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS SUCH AS PIKES PEAK AND LEADVILLE
DROPPING TO NEAR -20F TONIGHT.  ONE SAVING GRACE IS THAT SURFACE
WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...MEANING THAT WIND
CHILL READINGS OVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WARMER
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -18F TO -24F.  WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TONIGHT AND ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS
IF NECESSARY.

ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOW INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN BACA AND SOUTHERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES WHERE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE NOTED WITH THIS EVENT.  IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT.  ELSEWHERE...BASICALLY LITTLE TO NO SNOW
IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  BY FRIDAY...SNOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE ON
THE DECREASE AREA-WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU
MONDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MSTR IN THE FLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED COLD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...WITH COLDER READINGS OVR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND SOME OF THE
HIGH MTN VALLEYS.

SAT AN UPR TROF WL DROP INTO SRN ID...NRN NV AND NRN UT.  AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...MSTR WL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD AND BY
AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THAT AREA.  OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.  TEMPS WL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BY SUN MORNING THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO WRN CO AND THEN MOVES ACRS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SPREADING SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND SENDING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ALONG THE
CONTDVD.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SERN
PLAINS.

ANOTHER TROF DIVES DOWN INTO CO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPS
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.   DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON TUE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S OVR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT STILL IN THE 20S FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  ON WED A WEAK UPR LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AND COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS...AND WL PROBABLY COOL TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THEN ON THU AND UPR
RIDGE OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO DRY AND WARMER WEATHER AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
INTO TONIGHT. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SNOW TO PRIMARILY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO THIS EVENING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS
AND KPUB AT TIMES.  THE KALS TAF SITE SHOULD CONTINUE TO NOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77