Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 221738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET MOVING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. AT THE SFC...INDUCED LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD SPREADING SPREADING EAST AT THIS TIME.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT...TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN...HAS BEEN FALLING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN SCAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH ALERT GAGES ACROSS THE SCAR HAVE NOT REPORTED MORE
THAN 0.20 INCHES IN A HALF HOUR PERIOD.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. UVV AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO
THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WITHIN MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...MODELS INDICATING CAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING
BULK SHEARS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KTS...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL TO NEAR AN INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A LIMITING
FACTOR TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY...THOUGH WITH RATHER
BRISK STORM MOVEMENT...FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW...SAVE ANY STRONG CELL MOVING ACROSS A BURN SCAR.

SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
GREAT BASIN. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY
TUE...WHILE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY FAR TO THE EAST NEAR
THE KS BORDER... KEEPING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
AREA AS WELL. THUS EXPECT ANY LEFT-OVER CONVECTION TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO BE VERY ISOLATED AND LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MAX TEMPS ALL AREAS TUE WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AS HEIGHTS/MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE.

UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES WED/THU...GRADUALLY TILTING
EASTWARD AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED TSRA
NEAR THE NM BORDER BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STAY DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE...AS WEAK
ENERGY PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STAYS TOO FAR EAST TO AIDE IN ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH
RIDGE BUILDING TEMPS SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND SOME
RECORD MAXES MAY BE POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THU
AS 700 MB TEMPS PEAK.

00Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH A MUCH SLOWER EJECTION
OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW/TROUGH...THOUGH MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW BEFORE IT GETS
RE-ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL APPEARS LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS COLORADO
AHEAD OF THE LOW BEGINNING FRI...LEADING TO A RETURN OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION BOTH FRI/SAT AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN OR
LATER...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. CUT-OFF.
MAX TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT DOWNWARD A FEW DEGF STARTING FRI
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES BACK
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KCOS...WITH BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY AFTER 19Z...THANKS TO DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN COMBINATION WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN
PROJECTED AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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