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000
FXUS65 KPUB 231719
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 454 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Another round of thunderstorms expected today with residual moisture
and weak embedded disturbances still circulating within the upper
ridge over CO.  Activity will be focused across the mountains this
afternoon, then spread eastward into the adjacent plains late this
afternoon through tonight.  Although precipitable waters have come
down a bit over the past 24 hours, particularly across northwest
portions of the area, main concern will still be the potential for
locally heavy rainfall and small hail with the stronger storms.
Should a storm impact burn scars, localized flash flooding will be
possible.  However, with slightly stronger flow aloft today, storm
motions will be faster and this could reduce the risk slightly.
There could also be a strong storm or two across the Palmer Divide
and southeast plains where better surface heating today and low
level moisture may net CAPE values around 1000-1500 j/kg.  0-6 km
shears will be running around 30 kts, and if surface dew points stay
up as high as NAM suggests, CAPE could run a little higher.  If this
occurs then a marginally severe storm or two will be possible
across the plains this evening.

Thunderstorms will linger into the night across the plains as the
surface trof axis shifts eastward and low level jet cranks up.
Overall though activity should dwindle towards dawn.

Temperatures will net a 5-10 degree warm up over yesterday across
the plains and end up around normal values. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 454 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Thursday-Thursday night...Active weather pattern looks to continue
with a weak disturbance translating through the weak westerly flow
aloft, as upper high pressure starts to build back into the Desert
Southwest. Minor wave should help develop storms across the higher
terrain through the late morning and afternoon, with storms moving
across the adjacent plains through the late afternoon and evening.
Models continue to support the potential for strong to severe storms
across the southeast plains, with CAPEs of 1000-2000 j/kg progged
through the afternoon. Despite marginal shear, could see some
organized convection, with hail to around 1 inch in diameter and
gusty winds likely the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall will
also be possible, leading to the potential for flash flooding,
especially across area burn scars. Models also suggest a low level
jet developing across the far southeast plains Thursday evening,
which could keep convection ongoing through early Friday morning.
Temperatures look to be at to slightly below seasonal levels on
Thursday.

Friday-Tuesday...Upper high continues to build across the Desert
Southwest and into the Great Basin, with flow aloft becoming more
northerly through the weekend and into early next week. This will
allow for drier air to move into the area with decreasing coverage
and intensity of diurnal convection expected into early next week.
The more northerly flow aloft will also keep most of the daily
convection over the higher terrain, especially into early next week.
Temperatures will generally be around seasonal levels into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites the next 24 hours.
Tsra will develop over the mountains 18z-20z...then spread
eastward into the adjacent valleys and plains 21z-23z. KCOS and
KALS will see the best chance for a storm, and will carry a VCTS
mention at both sites. Gusty erratic winds up to 40 kts and brief
VFR cigs/vis will be possible with thunderstorms through early
evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN