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139
FXUS65 KPUB 180512
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Continued Fall Warmth...

Another dry and unseasonably warm fall day with afternoon
temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees above average at most
locations.  Upper high pressure and dry, westerly flow aloft
will continue over southern Colorado through Wednesday with more
unseasonably warm weather expected.  Afternoon highs on Wednesday
will run near to a little above today`s readings.  There may be a
few more high clouds but no precipitation is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Models have come into much better agreement and ensemble spreads
remain fairly small through the extended period. That has led to
higher forecast confidence through the extended period.

Wednesday night and Thursday...a weak trough over Utah will move
quickly across the area on Thursday. Expect a dry night on
Wednesday night ahead of the disturbance. Models have come into
line with isolated to scattered showers along the Continental
Divide on Thursday afternoon as the disturbance passes overhead.
There could be one or two thunderstorms as well. Snow levels will
be very high, around 13 kft, and area peaks may see a few flakes
through Thursday evening. Dry conditions are expected to prevail
across the Plains through Thursday with high temperatures in the
70s to lower 80s.

Friday and Saturday...a much stronger trough is forecast to pass
across the Northern Rockies and into the Central Plains Friday
through Saturday. Models in much better agreement with a
progressive system bringing a glancing blow to Southern Colorado.
Expect breezy conditions across the region on Friday. Humidity
values are expected to fall into the upper teens, producing near
critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon across the
Plains. Extreme caution is advised with any outdoor burning
activities. Mostly dry conditions are likely to prevail through
much of Friday, with showers moving into the Continental Divide
late in the day into the evening hours. Models increase shower
activity Friday night into Saturday across the Continental Divide,
spreading east into the Eastern Mountains. Snow levels will likely
fall down to about 9-10 kft, with lowest levels along the
Continental Divide. A couple of inches of snow are possible on
area peaks. Lesser amounts are likely over the Eastern Mountains.
Across the Plains, not anticipating any precipitation at this time
given the northerly storm track and limited moisture over the
region. After a warm Friday over the lower elevations with
temperatures in the lower 80s, cooler air behind a cold front will
leave Saturday`s highs in the 60s across the Plains.

Sunday through Tuesday...the upper trough will quickly move off
to the east while high pressure builds along the west coast. This
will allow for broad northwest flow to persist through the later
half of the extended period over Colorado. Dry air should keep the
region precipitation free, and temperatures should warm back into
the 70s across the lower elevations early next week.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions expected across the forecast area over the next 24
hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOORE