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000
FXUS65 KPUB 010529
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1029 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS OVER EASTERN PLAINS
AN PRECIP DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. ALSO
EXPIRING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 447 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FINE-TUNED FORECAST FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FCST. FIRST
BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER BAND COMING ACROSS MAINLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. FIRST BAND ALREADY CLEARED C MTNS AND WILL
REMOVE SNOW ADVISORY FROM THIS REGION WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM. /HODANISH

/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENTLY...PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 21Z...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING AS
IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER. WARMER TEMPS HAVE HELD ON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST..SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST
VALLEYS...THOUGH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW WAS ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 21Z.

TONIGHT...LEFT CURRENT ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...THOUGH
WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH OF I-70 ALREADY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY WITH NEXT UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH FOCUS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY UPSLOPE. HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK WILL SEE SOME MODEST (2-5 INCH)
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...WHILE VALLEYS SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO.
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS BELOW ABOUT 6K FEET WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AS COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS SOUTH. LATE CHANGEOVER AND WARM GROUND
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A
INCH OR TWO ONCE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PAST 04Z-
06Z...LIFT DECREASES OVER MOUNTAINS/WRN VALLEYS AS TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...WITH SNOW FADING AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO SNOW LONGER AS WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT KEEPS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO SUN
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS AS
DRIER/COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG/WEST OF I-25 IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY FADING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FADES AND UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SOME SUN
MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MIXING OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 50S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AND 60S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DROPS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS
BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. IT TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF MONTANA...AND BARELY CLIPS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT ALSO
HAS A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...BUT DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. IT
HAS SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

KCOS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS BETWEEN 07-11Z TONIGHT WITH SNOW AND
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 02/06Z

KPUB...VFR NEXT 24H. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT BR THROUGH 08Z.

KALS...GUIDANCE SHOWS IT DRYING OUT TONIGHT BUT KALS CAN BE
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE VALLEY. FOR NOW WENT WITH TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE BUT DELAYED LOW CLOUDS GETTING OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER ON TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH