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000
FXUS65 KPUB 202130
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPPER LOW OVER SE CO/NW NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IN AREA
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INSTABILITY.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND APPEARS THAT TAIL END OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH MAY BE AIDING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS NW CO.  THIS
LATTER FEATURE WILL CLIP THROUGH NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RUN-OFF
PRODUCING RAINFALL ON THE BURN SCARS.  OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE
THE EAST PEAK BURN SCAR WHERE RAINFALL OCCURED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
RADAR ESTIMATES COMPARED WITH GAGES IN THE AREA SUGGEST THAT
PORTIONS OF THE BURN SCAR MAY HAVE RECEIVED .50 TO .70 OF RAINFALL.
THIS OCCURRED SLOWLY THOUGH WITH RATES UNDER .10 TO .20 PER
HOUR...SO NO PROBLEMS WERE NOTED.  HOWEVER IF THIS AREA WERE TO GET
HIT WITH A STRONGER CELL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THE SATURATED
GROUND MAY RESULT IN SOME QUICK RUN-OFF PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MORE
STABLE...SO RISK SEEMS LOW AT THIS POINT.

A LITTLE BETTER HEATING HAS BEEN REALIZED FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION.  HOWEVER...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30S AND LATEST HRRR DROPS THEM INTO THE UPPER 20S BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH REALLY CUTS BACK ON THE INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT
THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH.  WHILE CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONGER CELL IMPACTING THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...THINK THIS
CHANCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND IF IT DID WOULD PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN SOME MINOR RUN-OFF ISSUES AT BEST.
ALSO...WATCHING THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF THE STATE IN VCNTY OF UPPER
LOW...WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BECOME STEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SHORT LIVED NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO/LANDSPOUT.  SO
FAR...UPDRAFT STRENGTHS HAVEN`T BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO STRETCH ANY
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY AS SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A POCKET OF HIGH NON-SUPERCELL TOR INDICES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

ALL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SO THESE THREATS SHOULD QUICKLY
COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ON MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES IN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN TODAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. -KT


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS LONGER TERM THINKING WITH
MAIN LONGER TERM ISSUES BEING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AT TIMES FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND...INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT VARYING DEGREES OF ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY)...PRIMARILY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN POSSIBLY CONTINUING AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. WFO
PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IN ADDITION...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST DISTRICT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS CLOSELY.

SWITCHING FOCUS TO TEMPERATURES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT BOTH MINIMUM
AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.  IFR TO EVEN LOCAL LIFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WHERE
HEAVY WET SNOW/GRAUPEL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  CIGS/VIS WILL MORE LIKELY REMAIN VFR
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THOUGH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THESE
WILL ALSO CARRY THE THREAT OF SOME SMALL HAIL.  CLEARING SKIES WILL
SET IN AFTER SUNSET.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$