Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 272119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
319 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Rest of today...Upper low over eastern CO and western KS will
continue to pull off to the northeast. Area of showers and
thunderstorms has been developing in area of wrap around...with
most intense cells in southern CO developing across Kiowa county.
High res models continue to show best activity across far northeast
sections of that area through late afternoon and early evening before
activity pulls off to the northeast and diminishes overnight.
Main threat will be local wind gusts to around 50 mph along with
some small hail.

Remainder of the area could see some scattered showers and isolated
embedded thunderstorms this afternoon through early
evening...particularly over the mountains but these too should
diminish with loss of heating. Elsewhere, gusty north to northwest
winds will continue across the plains into the early evening, before
winds weaken overnight.

For looks much more quiet with shortwave ridging
aloft. There will still be sufficient moisture for thunderstorms,
particularly in and near the mountains. However, limited
instability, with CAPE values generally around 500 J/KG, storms
will remain on the weaker side, with gusty winds up to 50 mph and
lightning being the primary storm threats. Storms will initiate
over the higher terrain before slowly moving across the plains
during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures across
the plains will rebound back into the upper 70s with mid to upper-
60s expected across the high valleys. Overnight, temperatures will
be on the cooler side with lows approaching the freezing mark in
the San Luis Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Saturday night-Sunday night...Drier westerly flow aloft across the
area Saturday gives way to increasing southwest flow Saturday night
and Sunday ahead of an embedded disturbance translating across the
southern Rockies through Sunday night. Some differences in models on
location of this embedded disturbance with the latest NAM and GFS
seemingly overdone with WAA precipitation across the far southeast
plains Saturday night. At any rate, isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the area Saturday afternoon to diminish
through the evening, though did keep slight pops across the far se
plains through the overnight hours. Increasing UVV and moisture
ahead of the southern Rockies wave looks to bring a better chance of
showers and storms across the area Sunday afternoon and evening,
with stronger storms still possible across the far SE Plains, as lee
troughing across the southeast plains helps dry line across western
Kansas to retrograde. Temperatures look to warm back to around
seasonal averages by Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday...A relatively cool and unsettled weather pattern
remains in the offing through the middle of next week, as more
energy translates across the southern Rockies, with another upper
wave slowly digging across the northern Rockies Monday and into the
central High Plains through Wednesday. There are some differences in
model location and timing of features, though a cold front looks to
move across the plains late Monday night and through the day
Tuesday, supporting the potential for possible severe weather and
locally heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Could also see some
more higher elevation snowfall through this period, depending on the
track of the upper level features.

Thursday-Friday...A slow warming and drying trend for late next week
as upper level ridging across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin
is progged to build into the Rockies.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites throughout the period.
Winds will continue to remain gusty at KPUB and KCOS through 02Z,
before winds decrease overnight. A few showers will continue to
linger around KPUB and KCOS through about 03Z before activity
diminishes overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will form over the
higher terrain starting around 17-18Z tomorrow afternoon. KALS and
KCOS may see VCTS starting around 20Z.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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