Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 302111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
311 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Classic mid latitude cyclone over ern KS this afternoon, with well
developed wrap around band/trowal exiting ern CO as of 20z. Vis
satellite loop reveals deep snow cover persisting along and south of
the Arkansas River on the plains, while more shallow snowpack has
just about melted out north of river in Pueblo/Crowley/El Paso
counties. Temps have warmed into the 50s where snow has melted, with
upper 30s and 40s over the more deeply snow covered areas. Strong N
winds have persisted through the day along and east of the
mountains, and have seen gusts of over 40 mph common along and east
of I-25.

Overnight, surface low over KS slowly lifts northeastward, leading
to a weakening pressure gradient and diminishing winds over ern CO,
especially after sunset. Weak trough then pushes into the central
Rockies toward Mon morning, spreading high clouds across the state,
along with a few snow showers over the peaks of the central
mountains, especially after midnight. Wly surface wind, increasing
clouds and modest warming aloft should keep temps from falling much
below freezing over the plains, though snow covered areas will
likely hang out around 32f for much of the night. Will just mention
frost in the forecast for now, but won`t issue any freeze highlight,
though areas south of the Arkansas R could get a little colder than
expected if winds die quickly and clouds are slow to return.

On Monday, weak wave crossing the state will produce a few showers
over the central mountains and near Pikes Peak through the day,
though precip amounts will be light and coverage isolated at best.
Max temps will warm as mid level temps push back above zero and snow
cover continues to melt. W-NW winds will be less than Sunday, though
still breezy at times in the afternoon with lee surface trough
across the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Not much change to the extended forecast with models in decent
agreement and ensemble spreads being modest. The main forecast
change from the past couple of model cycles is a quick and more
progressive system for Tuesday night.

Monday night through upper level trough is forecast
to drop south out of the Northern Rockies and across Colorado.
Weak embedded energy in the northwest flow will likely keep
isolated to scattered showers going over the Central Mountains
Monday into Tuesday morning. As the system approaches on Tuesday
afternoon, expect an increase in shower activity. At the surface,
a cold front is forecast to drop south during the afternoon hours.
This will turn flow more northeasterly across the Plains. Weak
instability and the upslope flow may lead to a few thunderstorms
over the Eastern Mountains and I-25 corridor for the late
afternoon and evening. A secondary cold front will arrive Tuesday
evening and move into the New Mexico by Wednesday morning. Models
in good agreement with a quick band of moderate the heavy
precipitation dropping south with the front, clearing to the south
Wednesday morning. There isn`t as much cold air to work with, and
the quick moving nature of the upper trough should limit
precipitation across the area. Snow levels will remain high with a
few inches possible above 7 kft, especially over the Central and
Eastern Mountains. Rain is expected over the Plains. Temperatures
will be cool Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 50s and lows
in the mid 30s to lower 40s. At this time, no freezing conditions
are expected across the Plains.

Thursday through Friday...high pressure over the Great Basin is
forecast to shift east across Colorado mid to late week. Expect
dry conditions Wednesday night through Friday. This will also
bring much warmer temperatures to southern Colorado. Highs will
top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Saturday and Sunday...the upper level ridge is forecast to move
east into the Central Plains while and upper level low forms over
the Great Basin. Models do not have this system moving much, with
broad southerly flow developing across Colorado. This will usher
moisture northward across the region. Expect an increase in shower
and thunderstorm activity, primarily over the mountains each
afternoon and evening. Some of this convection will likely move
east off the mountains and into the Plains before dissipating.
Temperatures will remain warm with 80s for highs.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Upper
level low will continue to lift through the central plains tonight,
with strong north winds wrapping around the back of the departing
low gradually diminishing this evening. Mountains along the
Continental Divide could see a few -shsn redevelop late tonight and
during the day Mon, with peaks obscured at times north of KMYP.




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