Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 122206
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
306 PM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Light snow comes to an end Wednesday night, although
strong winds persist thru Friday under a blocking pattern over the
west coast. Potential for fairer weather this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night.

Shortwave trof and attendant cold front continue to progress thru
Nevada this evening. Main push of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be mostly exited from the forecast area before
midnight with snow levels also lowering in conjunction with the
frontal passage. Isolated snow showers linger along with upslope
snow under strong northwesterly flow that will be in place post
frontal. Upslope snow showers primarily located along the Ruby
Mtns/E Humboldt range and Jarbidge Wilderness/Independence Range.
Upper perturbation moves south from Idaho early Wednesday morning.
This will allow for an upper trof to deepen over the forecast
area Wednesday. This will also result in stronger northerly flow
as a robust north to south oriented jet migrates over Nevada. Trof
to form a deep closed low over southern Nevada by sunrise
Thursday. This additional forcing will allow isolated snow showers
to remain in place across the region thru Wednesday, tapering off
Wednesday night.

Moderate uncertainty as to snowfall totals beginning tonight thru
Wednesday night given a few factors. Timing of valley rain and
snow switching over to all snow, which locales will be impacted
most by isolated post frontal snow showers, and how quickly snow
accumulates on the ground given that sub surface soil temperatures
are mostly in the mid to upper 30s. That said, current forecast
reflects around a half inch or less for most valleys. Locations
impacted by upslope snow and pass routes should anticipate around
an inch. Exception will also be northern Elko County and the Ruby
Mtns/E Humboldt range where an additional 1-2 inches of snow are
forecast with 4-8 inches across the high terrain. Strong winds
gusting 45 to 55 mph will be present in northern Nye County and
southeastern Elko County Wednesday with winds generally gusting
around 45 mph and less elsewhere. This may cause patchy blowing
snow in locales where fresh snow has fallen, but main locations of
blowing snow will be greater than 7500ft.

Overnight low temperatures tonight will be in the mid teens to
mid 20s. Daytime highs Wednesday reside mostly in the 30s with
overnight lows in the low teens to low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.

A tightening pressure gradient between an upper level low over AZ
and high pressure over the Pacific NW will maintain dry,
northerly winds across the CWA Thursday and Friday. The strongest
winds with gusts to 55 mph are expected to be in White Pine and
eastern Elko counties, while the rest of the valleys will have
north-northwest winds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph.
Meanwhile, moisture wrapping around the western periphery of the
aforementioned upper low may bring isolated snow showers in
portions of southern White Pine and eastern Nye Counties Friday
and Saturday. Warm, dry conditions along with lighter winds
expected for the weekend as the upper high influences the western
U.S. High temperatures will start out in the upper 40s and lower
50s to the lower to mid 60s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...A mix of rain and snow showers expected to continue
this evening at KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, and KELY. Periods of reduced
VIS along with MVFR/IFR conditions as CIGS fall to or below 1500
feet at times. KTPH will likely stay dry with only a 5-10% chance
of rain showers. There remains 15-20% chance of thunderstorms
across northeastern and east-central NV, but low confidence for
aviation impacts at KBAM, KEKO, or KELY. Shower activity will
diminish Wednesday afternoon with VFR conditions. Sustained W-NW
winds of 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots at KWMC and KBAM
will subside this evening, except for KTPH that will likely see
gusty, winds continuing overnight.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday Northern Elko
County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday South Central
Elko County...Southeastern Elko County.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 7 PM PDT Thursday
Northeastern Nye County...Northwestern Nye County.

&&

$$

92/90/90


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