Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 271741
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
141 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build into the area tonight and give the area
fair weather into early Thursday. Later Thursday and Friday,
low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Upper low moving over the area this afternoon and evening is
working with heating to generate showers and near severe
thunderstorms. Expect activity to die off pretty quickly this
evening as we lose heating and the low lifts northeast.

Wednesday should be dry for most of the area. Exception may be
the far north where cool air and elevation may trigger isolated
showers. Despite the sun, temps will still average a few
degrees below normal.

Next system approaches for Thursday and may trigger a few
showers very late in the extreme west of the area before
daybreak Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM Update...
Main concern will be for return of thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon-evening, some of which could be strong to severe with
gusty winds and/or hail.

Wednesday night will be quiet, though clouds will be increasing
towards dawn ahead of the next system. It will probably be one
of those nights with a shallow surface inversion forming early
in the evening for the radiational cooling spots, yet
temperatures will hold milder for ridges and the Lake Plain.

Things turn interesting Thursday. Significant warm air
advection occurs, with southwesterly low level jet increasing
to 30-40 knots at 850mb. Associated warm front will be connected
to low pressure lifting from the upper Midwest, across the
Northern Great Lakes, to the Ontario-Quebec border. Meanwhile,
one or more shortwaves will zip through brisk westerly flow.
Precipitable water values will quickly get past 1.5 inches
Thursday afternoon through evening. Overall, enough coming
together for a likelihood of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon-
evening, especially in Central New York; with at least some
threat for strong winds due to a good amount shear through most
of the column as well as some dry air in the mid levels to
promote downdrafts. Hail also a threat due to amount of
Convective Available Potential Energy at hail growth
temperatures, and strong storm relative flow around or greater
than 50 knots at the equilibrium level. Mixed layer CAPE looks
probable to get past 1000 J/KG and perhaps 1500 J/KG in the Lake
Plain. 0-1km helicity values get into the hundreds, which is
worrisome, and points to potential for isolated supercells as
the warm front lifts east. Factors counting against a more
organized severe threat include mid level lapse rates that will
not be steep, and slight 500mb height rises instead of falls.
Also, while a jetmax or will travel across the region aloft, it
is unsure at this point if placement will be favorable or
perhaps even unfavorable for ascent. So the synoptic forcing
picture is unclear.

Though warm front will shift north of the area Thursday night,
shallow mesoscale boundaries could shove potential convection
further south across the area Thursday night, and thus we will
have to watch of the possibility of training storms and locally
heavy rainfall from elevated precipitable water values.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM Update...
Forecast adjusted towards latest multi-model blend. Same idea
holds true through the period; a busy weather pattern continues.
Though there will be dry intervals, it will be really tough to
go more than a day without showers-thunderstorms in the area.

Previous discussion...
SW flow aloft will prevail through most of the forecast period.
Multiple shortwaves are forecast to move across the region
through the period. This type of pattern will lead to an
unsettled weather, thus there is a chance for precip Friday
through Sunday. We may see another break in the pattern on
Monday which may bring us a couple days of dry weather.

It needs to be emphasized that although at least a chance of
showers/storms will be in the forecast through this period, any
all-day washouts look highly unlikely, with significant rain-
free periods, and convective chances greater coincident with
peak heating during the afternoon/early evening hours.

Friday-Monday, look for highs in the upper 70s-low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the most part, although VFR conditions will prevail today,
showers/embedded thunder will remain a possibility through mid-
late afternoon. A somewhat greater chance for this occurrence
will be for our CNY terminals, as opposed to KAVP. Although
brief restrictions are possible, we`ll leave things as VFR at
this juncture. Also, we`ll leave thunder out for now, although
we`ll have to be vigilant of this possibility, especially during
the afternoon.

Lots of uncertainty with fog development later tonight, with
conflicting signals in the model data. For now, we`ve
introduced the idea of IFR-below alternate minimum restrictions
at KELM after 06z.

Generally W-SW winds will average 5-10 kt today. Any
showers/thunderstorms later today could bring brief gusty winds,
perhaps 25-35 kt. SW winds will diminish later tonight to 5 kt
or less.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Possible early morning fog at KELM, otherwise VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...At least periodic restrictions
anticipated in showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM



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