Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 041742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONTROLLING FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SHOWERY, AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY
OCCUR BY SATURDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST, AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY EXPANDING ACROSS
EASTERN PA.  IN THE MEANTIME, FARTHER NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY,
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE PREVAIL.

WE EXPECT A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS TODAY,
AS A SHORT-WAVE SEEN OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING, ALSO
ROTATES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE LIKELY
PROBABILITIES INDICATED, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND FROM ABOUT
THE I-81 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.  AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
COOL TODAY, SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION, AND WE DO HAVE THIS INCLUDED AS WELL.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S-LOWER 60S, WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS UP OVER OUR NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW MOVING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS
PERIOD. IT SEEMS LIKELY, GIVEN THE BLOCKINESS OF THE PATTERN AND
TIME OF YEAR, THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM.  ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT POSITIONING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LOW DIFFERS A BIT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL, A GENERAL TRAJECTORY FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU.-FRI. SEEMS PROBABLE.

THE COMBINATION OF A COOL MOIST E-SE FLOW, AND MULTIPLE SHORT-
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW, WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND PERIODIC SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, THE MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND NY`S SOUTHERN TIER
LATER THU. NIGHT INTO FRI. OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY, WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S-MID 60S RANGE (AGAIN WARMEST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES).

THE LOG JAM MAY BEGIN TO BREAK LATER FRI. NIGHT OR EARLY SAT., AS
MOST MODEL SCENARIOS HAVE THE UPPER LOW FILLING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD AND ONLY
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS LONG RANGE FORECAST BY UTILIZING NEW
SUPERBLEND.

PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE. FOR SATURDAY, UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. OVERALL, LOOKING AT
A MOSTLY DRY DAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR N/W ZONES BY LATE DAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRINGING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOL
MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING TO SEASONAL FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON
AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD LIFT TO A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR WITH EMBEDDED LOW END MVFR. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR VISBYS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW ATTM TO PLACE THUNDER IN ANY TAF SITE. THIS EVENING THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING. EXPECT ANOTHER STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP... BUT WITH A NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION DO
NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO BE STURDY THURS MORNING AND AS LONG.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU THE DAY... THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BY SUNRISE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURS & FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...KAH


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