Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 010544
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH. FIRST BATCH WAS FROM NRN
ONONDAGA TO ONEIDA EARLIER. NOW A FEW SPITS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
HERE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ISOLATED. SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND BE GONE BY 10 PM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING UP WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF


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