Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 061057
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...AND THROUGH NEW YORK TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK ALSO LOOKS
UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS...
ALONG WITH THE THIN SMOKE VEIL FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES...WILL
TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A MILD SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS...OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WORK INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LOW
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY...AND THOSE
THAT PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS CAN EXPECT OVERALL RAIN TIME TODAY TO
BE BRIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE SAME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE WEAK UPR LVL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADDED DAYTIME HEATING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA AS MODELS TIME THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF BY 18Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY
BETWEEN THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE
BACKING OF A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET
DYNAMICS...AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME DECENT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CLIPS OUR AREA WITH A
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SVR WX UP UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT THE NEW DAY 3 SAYS...BUT OUR MAIN THINKING IS THAT ANY
STORMS FROM TUES NIGHT- WEDS WOULD BE TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCERS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PSEUDO-TROPICAL
WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO OVER 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE VALUES ALREADY OF THIS MAGNITUDE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY UPDATE... AFTER RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF AT
KELM BY 13-14Z...VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE
WIDELY SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

LATER TONIGHT...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WE`VE THUS INDICATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS BY 03-06Z AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES...WITH A SOMEWHAT LATER ONSET TIME FOR KRME
(AROUND 08Z).

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.