Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 010201
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1001 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through
midweek under a mainly clear sky. Our next chance of rain will
come Late Thursday into Friday with the passage of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM Update...
A very quiet overnight is forecast, with a likelihood for light
fog developing in the river valleys toward sunrise.

We made minor updates to the overnight temperatures based on the
latest guidance products. Also, Tuesday maximums exceeded guidance
in quite a few locations, so we edged Wednesday maximums upward in
expectation that guidance is running a little on the cool side.

Previous Discussion...
Conditions will be quiet for the near term as ridging
dominates. The area is under a W/NW flow with low pressure over
Atlantic Canada and a high centered near Hudson Bay with a ridge
extending south into the Great Lakes. Expect scattered Cumulus
over the area to diminish this evening with the loss of heating.
Otherwise tonight will be mainly clear with light winds as ridge
axis nudges into the area. This will set up good conditions for
radiational cooling with lows ranging from the upper 40s in the
cooler spots (valleys and Catskills) to mid 50s. Some patchy
valley fog will be possible but since drier air will be advecting
in on N/NE flow do not expect this to be as dense or extensive as
this past morning. Also expect some high clouds late.

The surface ridge will continue to dominate for Wednesday as it slowly
slides east. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with light winds
and highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity levels will
be in the comfortable range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridge building to the east across northern New England and far
eastern Canada will be replaced by an incoming upper short wave and
passing surface cold front Thursday.
Ahead of the front a relatively strong southerly flow will develop
as the pressure gradient tightens and allow for south winds around
15 to 20 mph...with gusts up to 25 mph. Available moisture will
increase across the region and prime the atmosphere for around a
quarter inch of rain as the front moves through late Thursday
through early Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak
to modest instability combined with weak shear and relatively steep
mid and low level lapse rates to produce a few potentially well
developed/strong thunderstorms.

Temperatures on Thursday will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s
with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Overnight lows Thur
morning and Friday morning will drop into the 50s and lower 60s.
Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler behind the front, only
rising into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A few lingering rain showers are possible over NE PA and the
southern Catskills Friday night/Saturday morning as the upper trough
holds back across New England. However the main trend will be drying
as a broad upper ridge builds across the region and allows for large
scale subsidence into the early part of the weekend. The pattern
will shift going into the latter half of the weekend and into early
next week as a slow moving upper trough rolls into the NE and
spreads widespread rain showers through the region. May see
significant long duration rainfall amounts over a good portion of
the forecast area during this time.

Temperatures through the weekend will take a gradual downward turn
with highs on Saturday starting out in the 70s and lower 80s...but
into the lower to mid 70s by Monday. Overnight lows in the 60s will
fall into the 50s by the beginning of next week...with noticeably
drier air as well.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conds this eve will cont thru the Taf pd under hipres with lgt
winds. Xcptn will be at ELM where lgt winds will once again allow
vly fog to frm aft arnd 06z. Xpct IFR vsby at least before the fog
burns off aft sunrise.

OUTLOOK...

Wed ngt...VFR.

Thursday-Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms; better chances will be Thursday Night-Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DGM/PCF



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