Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 190102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
902 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
900 PM UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE, A PREVAILING
THEME OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IS
PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS, SO WE NEEDED
TO MAKE SOME SIZABLE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 6Z.

EXCEPT FOR SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS BASED ON THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS, THE FORECAST FROM 6Z-12Z
DID NOT REQUIRE MUCH ALTERATION.

345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





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