Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 251136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
636 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

A strong cold front will cross the region late this morning
through the afternoon bringing showers with heavy downpours
along with scattered thunderstorms and gusty winds.
Temperatures will be cooler Sunday and Monday with scattered
snow showers and some lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario.


Main concern in the near term remains focused around the
passage of a very strong cold front today...with showers and
thunderstorms producing brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Will
have to monitor various aspects of this system...including the
threat for isolated severe damaging wind gusts...heavy rainfall
producing localized flash flooding...and the potential for
minor river flooding.

Conditions coming together today for an interesting late-winter
warm-season type event with the passage of an intense cold front
and the likely development of a west-east moving line of strong
convection. Currently the upper trough is situated over the wrn
Great Lakes/Midwest region...with the sfc low well out ahead
over Lake Huron. The sfc low is expected to lift to the ne into
Quebec today...and as the upper trough axis attempts to become
negatively tilted, will catch up with the sfc cold front over
NY/PA this afternoon and allow convection to intensify over the
region. Convective parameters are not expected to be very
notable...with BL/elevated CAPE values around 200-400 J/kg at
best and LI/SI around -2. The main driving forces behind this
event will be the low level kinematics combined with rapidly
steepening lapse rates in both the mid and upper levels. The
weak instability will of course aid in the process, but one of the
main concerns with these storms will be the threat for strong
to possibly damaging winds as profiles become favorable for
mixing down 40-60 mph winds within a thunderstorm. The window
for this line of convection will likely be from approximately
11 am to 4 pm as the line moves across the area.

The other area of concern with this system will be the threat
for localized flash flooding. The recent snow melt across the
region the past week has left a good portion of central NY and
even ne PA with saturated soils. One hour flash flood guidance
in this area is very inch or less. The air mass ahead
of the cold front continues to be very warm and moist. Quite
moist through much of the column...PWATs around 1 inch. So,
with the potential for this convection to lay down an easy 0.5
to 1 inch in an hour or less...and quickly become significant
runoff...believe there is the potential for localized flash
flooding. Therefore...have issued a Flash Flood Watch for
portions of south central NY and extreme northeast PA from 11 am
to 6 pm today.

The concern for minor river/stream flooding is still on the
table today and Sunday as well. Will continue with the Flood
Watch for Oneida County through tomorrow as this area continues
to see rapid/significant snow melt today and the addition of
another inch or so of rain to local rivers and streams. Check
the Hydro section below for more information regarding the river
flooding potential.

Strong south winds ahead of the front will be of some concern
this morning...but the main story will be the winds derived from

The cold air moving in quickly behind the front will allow
temperatures to fall quickly into the 40s and 30s late this
afternoon and into the early evening. The cold air advecting in
will transition the lingering rain showers/sprinkles to a mix of
light rain/light snow/flurries.


The main focus in the short term tonight and Sunday will be the
potential for light lake effect snow and the gusty west winds.
As the system lifts nwd...a cold air mass will move in from the
w/nw...with 850mb temps around -11 to -13 deg C. A 270-280 deg
flow in the boundary layer and strong CAA over Lakes Erie and
Ontario will produce lake effect bands downwind of these lakes.
The depth of the mixed layer is only expected to top out around
5-6k ft...which may be sufficient for light LES through Sunday.
The most favorable area for up to 2-4 inches will be across nrn
Oneida County. The further south you go...near the
Thruway...amounts will likely be limited to 1-2 inches. Also,
may see an inch or so from an extended Lake Erie band into
central NY.

The other notable element tonight and Sunday will be the much
colder temperatures. Lows will be falling back into the
20s...which is more normal for this time of year. Highs will
only be climbing into the 30s on Sunday.

Winds tonight and Sunday morning will be quite gusty out of the
west. Expect sustained winds around 20 to 25 mph and gusts up to
35 mph possible.


A warming trend is forecast for the beginning of the long range
forecast period. Weak storm systems will bring a mix of snow and
rain to the region Tuesday and Wednesday, with mainly rain
during the daytime hours. Daily highs will climb from the middle 40s
on Monday to the middle 50s on Wednesday.

A strong cold front will pass late Wednesday. An eastern trough
will build down from Canada, setting the stage for a period of
colder than normal temperatures.


Generally VFR conditions this morning with a few locations
seeing periods of MVFR ceilings. A line of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to move across the region from W-E from 17-22z.
Although these restrictions should only last 1-2 hours...IFR or
fuel alternate categories are possible in heavy rain and fog.
Have added mention of TS in a 2-3 hr tempo group for all
terminals. Storms may produce gusts in excess of 40 kts and
periods of heavy downpours.

Later today, behind the front, drier air will push in from the
west, with conditions likely improving to MVFR or VFR under a
stratus deck that may linger through tonight.

Winds will be a significant issue through the next 24 hours.
Strong surface winds from the south (gusts of 25-30 kt) are
likely this morning. After the cold front passes through, winds
will shift into the west and remain gusty through tonight.


Sunday...Restrictions from lake-effect snow showers probable at
KSYR-KRME, with mainly VFR elsewhere.

Monday-Tuesday...Possible restrictions in light rain or snow

Wednesday...Possible restrictions in rain showers.



There has been very little change to the thinking regarding the
impact of melting snow and forecast rainfall on the rivers
around Central NY this coming weekend. The bulk of snow and SWE
in the Upper Susquehanna and Delaware basins has nearly fully
released into the hydrologic system at this time, and rivers
are gradually responding. There remains an abundance of snow
cover in the northern half of Oneida county, and another mild
24 hours is still expected.

We now just wait on the rain to materialize tomorrow. Models
are honing in on about 0.50-1.00 inches with the bulk of any
widespread precipitation occurring across the northern counties
with less toward the NY-PA border. A narrow frontal rain band
moving through on Saturday afternoon could contribute to
significant rain rates for an hour, or so. In addition to the
river rises, localized water problems will have to be monitored
when the front sweeps through.

The Flood Watch continues for Oneida county, and NWS Buffalo
has already issued a very long lead time Flood Warning for the
Black River at Boonville. It`s going to take the forecasted
rainfall to create a flood on Oneida Creek, so we will hold off
warning for that stream until confidence increases. This part of
our region is the area of most concern. Elsewhere, modest river
rises will occur on the Susquehanna and its tributaries with
flows expected to reach cautionary thresholds at several stream
gauges. There is a chance for these rivers to touch minor flood stage,
but confidence is low at this time and we will play the
situation conservatively.


The next few days will feature near-record warmth. Here are the
daily records to keep an eye on for our official climate sites.

Daily record highs   66/1957 25th.
Record high minimums 43/1957 25th.

Daily record highs   58/1956 25th.
Record high minimums 43/1961 25th.

Daily record highs   67/1930 25th.
Record high minimums 46/1930 25th.


PA...Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for PAZ038>040.
NY...Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for NYZ044>046-055>057-062.
     Flood Watch through Sunday evening for NYZ009-037.


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