Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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510
FXUS61 KBGM 210720
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
320 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring sunny skies and warm
temperatures to NY and PA. Tropical storm Jose will remain well
offshore, with no impact on our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
145 AM update...

Warm high pressure will yield a continuation of mostly clear
skies and mild temperatures. 925 mb temperatures are forecast in
excess of 20C over the next 48 hours, suggesting surface highs
will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

River valley fog will form both this morning and Friday morning.

10 pm update...
minor changes. Adjusted clouds/temps/dewpts. Clouds from Jose
continue to move west further into the area. These are high.
Still expecting a retreat to the east late tonight. Despite all
the clouds temperatures have fallen to close to the dewpoint.
IFR fog in Ithaca and signs elsewhere that it will not be long
to show.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
320 am update...
Main concerns in the short term remain focused around the potential
for early morning fog and much above average temperatures.

A large dome of high pressure along with a very warm air
mass...850mb temperatures around +17 to +20 deg C, around 2 standard
deviations above average...will overtake the region this weekend and
allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s...close
to 90 on Sunday especially across the lake plain of central NY.

Mostly clear skies at night under high pressure and calm winds will
make way for more early morning valley fog. Fog should lift and mix
out by mid morning. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s and lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 am update...
The warm temperatures will continue into Monday and Tuesday with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. High pressure will also
continue to dominate the region with dry weather expected into the
middle of the week. The ridge begins to break down and the tropical
system Maria will begin to approach the mid Atlantic region into the
latter half of the week...which may spread more cloud cover and
potentially a few rain showers into ne PA and s-central NY by
Wednesday, but this is still too far out and uncertainty remains
high.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
River valley fog will develop again in the next few hours. The
most likely sites to experience IFR restrictions are KELM, KITH,
and possibly KBGM. Visibility restrictions of 1/4SM or less are
forecast at KELM in the predawn hours this morning.

Mostly sunny skies and light winds are forecast for today.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...VFR except for fog possible
each late night/early morning, especially at KELM but for other
terminals as well at times.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DJP



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