Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 061847 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A MINOR UPDATE
HAS BEEN SENT TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

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&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
PALESTINE AT 1745Z. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...SO
WILL THE MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20Z...AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 00Z AND THEN SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 04Z AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
12 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 00Z MONDAY WHICH IS JUST AT THE END
OF EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF...SO THIS WIND SHIFT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  36  64  36  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              31  64  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  60  33  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            31  62  33  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          32  61  34  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            37  62  38  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           34  62  34  54  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  64  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            32  65  33  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     31  65  32  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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