Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 010442 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE BUT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE LIKELY NEAR KACT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KACT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION THAN THE DFW METROPLEX AREA BUT WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS TOMORROW FOR INCLUSION OF VCTS OR VCSH IF
NEEDED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS. SOUTH
WINDS AOB 11 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH. A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES BETWEEN 4-7 KFT WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF
AN EASTLAND TO ENNIS LINE AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
DENTON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z /1 AM/.
OTHERWISE... HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE...AS THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS AND
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            72  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /  10   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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