Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 212020
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST AT 10 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION IN THE
ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE HEAT
A BIT MORE TOLERABLE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE END OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
THE LAST BATCH OF STRAOCU WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ABOVE 4000 FT AS
IT MOVES NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WE EXPECT FEW TO
SCATTERED CU TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

A 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE A
BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. WE WILL STILL CARRY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT
THE METRO TERMINALS FROM 14 TO 17Z. WACO WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
AT SEEING MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11 AND 17Z.

A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 100  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  98  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  96  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            79 100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  98  80 100  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           76  97  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  75  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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