Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260857
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
357 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Things are quiet this morning across North and Central Texas after
a day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery
shows the shortwave trough responsible for the initial
thunderstorm activity moving through south-central Texas this
morning. A much broader large scale troughing exists across the
northern Gulf of Mexico and it is this general weakness in the
heights aloft that will allow continued scattered rain chances
across North and Central Texas for the next several days.

For today...a cluster of showers and thunderstorms across central
Oklahoma this morning will continue to weaken and will likely not
make it into North Texas. This cluster of storms has put down at
least one outflow boundary that appears to be located just north
of the Red River. A little farther north...a quasi-stationary
frontal boundary is located across central Oklahoma. Aloft...one
shortwave embedded in the overall large trough is moving away to
our southwest. Another shortwave appears on water vapor to be
approaching the LA/MS coast now. This puts North and Central Texas
in between these features away from the better forcing for ascent.
While we may not actually be subsident...we will likely need at
least some weak forcing to get showers and thunderstorms to
develop in the absence of any substantial surface forcing
mechanism. This is not to say that we won`t see scattered storms
today...but it appears that coverage will be significantly reduced
from yesterday. We should still see scattered storms during peak
heating where any remnant boundaries or areas of stronger
mesoscale forcing are present. The favored areas for this to occur
appear to be across our northern counties along the Red River and
across our southern tier of counties. Convection will likely be
more robust in coverage across south-central and southeast Texas
where a very moist uncapped environment will support scattered to
numerous storms. This convection is also likely to send outflow
boundaries northward which should spark new development. That
being said...will keep PoPs at 20-30% across our area for today.
Any storms that develop will still be capable of producing strong
downburst winds given the relatively dry air below 850mb.

By Wednesday...the shortwave spreading into Louisiana will head
into the Arklatex region. This will be favorable for a little more
convection during the afternoon hours across North
Texas...especially east of Interstate 35. PoPs are currently at
30% for this time with activity diminishing in coverage after
sunset.

On Thursday...a stronger shortwave trough moves through the
central Plains. This will allow mid-level flow to strengthen.
There is some indication that a complex of thunderstorms will
develop across Oklahoma late Wednesday night and move southeast
into North Texas. Will have some 30-40% PoPs on Thursday to
account for this. Even if a complex of storms doesn`t develop and
move into the area...the shortwave is likely to push a weak
frontal boundary into the region on Thursday. This would likely be
sufficient for afternoon thunderstorms to develop...favoring our
eastern counties.

We will continue to see the upper ridge remaining off to the west
through the weekend which will allow for at least isolated
convection each afternoon across parts of North Texas.
Temperatures through the remainder of the week will be near
normal.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1105 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/
Concerns...scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly between
17z Tuesday and 01z Wednesday that will produce gusty downburst
winds...lightning and brief heavy rain.

The scattered showers and thunderstorms that developed Monday
afternoon had moved to the south and east of the forecast area by
04z. We will remain in a weakness between the upper level ridges
to our west (over the Four Corners area) and to our east (over the
southeastern United States). With decent moisture in place and
less convective inhibition that in recent days, we will have
scattered showers and thunderstorms develop again from around
midday Tuesday through early evening. Some of these storms will
have the potential to produce strong downburst winds as well as
heavy rain and lightning strikes. For now, have placed VCTS in the
Metroplex and Waco TAFs from 19z through 00z. Outside of
thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions with east to southeast winds
of 5 to 10 knots.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  79  97  78  97 /  20  20  30  20  30
Waco                97  75  97  77  97 /  30  20  30  20  30
Paris               94  75  94  74  92 /  30  20  30  20  50
Denton              96  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  30  20  40
McKinney            95  75  96  76  94 /  20  20  30  20  40
Dallas              97  80  97  79  96 /  20  20  30  20  30
Terrell             96  76  95  76  94 /  20  20  30  20  40
Corsicana           96  76  95  77  95 /  20  20  30  20  40
Temple              94  75  95  76  95 /  30  20  30  20  30
Mineral Wells       96  74  97  74  97 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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