Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 040810
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
410 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SINCE VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE SPROUTED IN THE OFFSHORE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS AWAY FROM THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. BUT THESE HAVE
REMAINED WEAK FOR THE MOST PART. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE...CONDITIONS ARE WARM AND
HUMID...TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY.

BROAD HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE BULK OF
THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FEW LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHS OR DISCRETE GYRES MEANDERING IN THE SHORT TO MID TERMS OF THE
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT ACCOUNT FOR MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A RELATIVELY
DRY SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM ALOFT INTO THE MID SECTIONS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...CARRIED THROUGH ON A
CONSISTENT AND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AS SUCH...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH
THE LATEST AVAILABLE LOW MOS POP NUMBERS. SO I DID NOT. THESE
NUMBERS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE PAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THE RECENTLY DISTRIBUTED ZONE FORECAST CONTAINED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID EVERY PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
GRAPHICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE SPEED
OSCILLATIONS IN THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...PROBABLY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT THIS WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. GENERALLY EAST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY IN
KEY WEST DATES BACK TO 1957...WHEN A TEMPERATURE OF 95F WAS
RECORDED. THEN IN 2005...A DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 83F
WAS OBSERVED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  84  90  83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  93  84  91  84 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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