Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 210338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1038 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

A long wave ridge complex has amplified across the eastern United
States, stretching from Central America through the Great Lakes.
Upstream from the ridge, an equally anomalous trough axis is
working east through the central United States and old Mexico.
Water vapor imagery highlights the diffluent flow east of the
trough axis. At the surface, and inverted trough axis has formed
over the western Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, high pressure
stretches from western Cuba to well into Quebec, mirroring the
latitudinal extent of the upper ridge. Breezes have been slightly
stronger and a little more south of east than expected. The
developing surface trough is probably the culprit. The forecast
calls for lows near 70 with no rain chance. Given the dry and
stable profile sampled by the 00Z RAOB, we see no need for an
update to the forecast.


No current watches, warnings, or advisories. An area of low
pressure will develop over the Gulf of Mexico overnight and
Tuesday. This low pressure system is expected to move east across
the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night...and then through the coastal
waters of the Florida Keys Wednesday through Thursday morning. As
a result...scattered to numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms will affect wind and sea conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Winds and seas will begin to subside
Thursday night or Friday.


VFR and gentle east breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH
terminals. BKN cigs based at 050 will erode at both terminals by
12Z. Southeast breezes will begin to gust between 15 and 20 knots
Tuesday afternoon.




Data Collection......DR

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