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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231418
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...DEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...A PINCHED TUTT- LIKE CELL
CONTINUES TO PRESS WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL CUBA.
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS BEEN ASSAULTED BY A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ENERGY FROM THE MID LATITUDES WHICH
HAS CARVED OUT LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. DUE TO
THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS. A
NARROW RIBBON OF DRY AIR LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...WELL DEPICTED BY MIMIC TPW LOOPS. THIS MORNING`S RAOB
OBSERVATION SAMPLED THIS LAYER AT ABOUT 850 MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
WATERS SURROUNDING THE TORTUGAS AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE NARROW ALLEY OF ECHO AND CLOUD FREE SKIES
LIKELY REPRESENTS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY AIR RIBBON.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW NORMALLY RESULTS IN
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE ONE KINK IN
THIS SCENARIO WILL BE THE DRY AIR RIBBON. WE FEEL THIS RIBBON WILL BE
PRESSED WEST AS THE GRADIENT AROUND THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EXPANDS
NORTHWEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD RAIN CHANCES NEAR 20
PERCENT...WHICH IS NEARLY DOUBLE GUIDANCE. MAINLAND CONVECTION WILL
WIND DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
STRAITS.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...THE BEST CHANCE OF A VICINITY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR SUB
VFR EPISODE WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE KEY WEST
TERMINAL. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  92  83  92  82 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  82  93  81 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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