Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260223
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
WEAK TUTT CELL SPINS JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH NO EFFECT ON THE LAYERS
BELOW IT. GOES BASED SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH THE RAOB OBSERVATIONS
FROM BYX AND AMX PORTRAY THE LEADING EDGE OF A SAL PLUME JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WELL DEPICTED BY LOOPS OF MIMIC TPW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTOGRAPHS OF THESE CELLS HINT AT THE
DESTRUCTIVE NATURE OF THE IMPENDING DRY AIR. THE UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN
NARROW AND FLEETING...RESULTING IN WISPY FANS OF VIRGA AND CIRRUS.
NEVERTHELESS...THE MOST CONSOLIDATED CELLS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES. AFTER LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE
WINDS EARLIER...MOST OBSERVING STATION ARE NOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SAL PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...THIS SEEMS TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
WATERS. UNFORTUNATELY...AN ASCAT PASS IS NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE. A
LESS RIGOROUS METHOD OF TRACKING CLOUD LINE FEATURES CALCULATES
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF AROUND 13 KNOTS ACROSS THE DISTANT FLORIDA
STRAITS. BASED ON OUR ASSESSMENT...THE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
INCREASE SEEMS TO BE HERE...SO WILL EDGE OFF THE SLIGHTLY BULLISH
EXPECTATIONS IN THE COASTAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL OSCILLATE JUST NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
ALL COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE SETTLES
NEAR THE KEYS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS BY 26/04Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....RIZZO

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