Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300802
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
402 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015


.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80 DEGREES ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE WISE...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE MID
NORTHERN ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A LOSER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS WILL KEEP THE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL PULSE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND...THEREFORE CHANCES
OF RAIN HAVE BEEN KEPT AT AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE WILL BE REACHING OUR WATERS AS
THEY EXIT SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
OUR FORECAST FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY HAVE BEEN BLENDED BETWEEN
THE LATEST RUN OF GFS AND THE 29/12Z EUROPEAN. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING IN THEIR LAST FEW RUNS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP...TROPICAL
MOISTURE COMING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO OUR AREA. THE 30/00Z
GFS SOLUTION IS NOW SHOWING A SYSTEM WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION FROM
SURFACE TO 700 MB AND MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EUROPEAN
KEEPS IT AS AN OPEN DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THEREFORE...WE WERE CONSERVATIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR- AND OFFSHORE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT FORWARD ABOVE 15 KNOTS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASED MOISTURE IS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN...BUT HAS NOT APPRECIABLY INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE ON KBYX RADAR.
SO...UNLESS THERE IS SOME INCREASE BEFORE SUNRISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH
ADVERTISING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT EASTERLY BREEZES BELOW 10 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST
3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HIT 92 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR MAY 30 IN KEY WEST SINCE TEMPERATURE RECORDS
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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