Area Forecast Discussion
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631
FXUS62 KKEY 070721
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHWEST AT
15 TO 20 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHWEST NEAR 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW THEIR
TYPICAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF THIS DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY
DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR
25 KNOTS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED
MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH 07/12Z...BEFORE THINNING AND
LIFTING OVER THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG CROSSWINDS...ESPECIALLY
IN GUSTS...BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1957...1.78 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON FEBRUARY 7TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 59 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  66 56 68 62 / 20 - - 20
MARATHON  66 53 68 61 / 20 - - 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC

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