Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020725
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
325 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE KEYS
AREA TONIGHT. A LINGERING BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IS
PRODUCING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOLASSES
REEF TO 20 NM SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. A PORTION OF THIS LINE IS
OVER THE KEYS ISLANDS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND VERY LIGHT. THE KBYX VAD WIND
PROFILER IS SHOWING UNREALISTIC WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ABOVE 1K FEET OFF
THE DECK...THESE TARGETS ARE FROM MIGRATING BIRDS CROSSING THE AREA.

.FORECAST...
EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS NAPLES AND CHOKOLOSKEE
BEFORE THE SUPPORTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES PROVIDING SOME FRESHENING WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BEING REINFORCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE DISINTEGRATING FRONT...HAVE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WILL KEEP LOW END
CHANCE IN MOSTLY EAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LOOSE MUCH OF ITS STRUCTURE AS IS STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. OF COURSE THIS NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
MONITORED...AND FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AT BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1947...3.85 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
OCTOBER SECOND IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  80  88  78 / 40 30 20 20
MARATHON  90  79  90  78 / 40 30 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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