National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KKEY 191420
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE (PWAT 1.86 INCHES) WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. A LIGHT AND CHAOTIC FLOW REACHES WELL INTO THE
TROPOSPHERE.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
A POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AIR AND A VERY FORMIDABLE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WITHIN A FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THANKS TO AN ANTICYCLONE TO OUR NORTH. PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH. HENCE...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SPELL OF RAIN WILL BE FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT CHALLENGES ANY DEVELOPING CELLS. THEREFORE...AN EARLIER
UPDATE WAS SENT ONLY TO INCREASE POPS A TAD TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 9 AND 8 KNOTS AT 1
AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY WHICH MATCHES THE KBYX VWP. DESPITE
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING STEADY STATE...EARLY VISIBLE
SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS AND GUIDANCE INDICATES A MINOR WIND INCREASE
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HENCE...WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE KEPT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 20/06Z. THE WIND FIELD HAS
COLLAPSED WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. CLOUD
LINES ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW DEVELOPING
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT EITHER OF THE TERMINALS...AND WILL AMEND AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT WINDS TO
SURGE...DRIVING THE CLOUD LINES OFF THE NORTH EDGE OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 19TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1884...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY REACHED 80 DEGREES. THIS COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD REMAINS 129 YEARS LATER. FOR COMPARISON...THE
NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN KEY WEST FOR THIS DAY OF THE
YEAR ARE 88 AND 79...RESPECTIVELY.

&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST