Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 252355 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions area forecast for the next 24 hours.
Some patchy fog will be seen before sunrise Tuesday morning, with
patchy MVFR conditions possible at or near a few Taf sites. Any fog
Tuesday morning will dissipate 1-2 hours after sunrise. Winds will
be southeast at 5 to 10 mph this evening, lowering to light south or
light and variable to calm Monday night. VFR flight conditions are
forecast for Tuesday with southeast winds becoming east at 5 to 10
mph. Late in the day Tuesday, winds over northwest AR will switch to
the northwest at 5 to mph. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 248 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

.Short Term...Tonight thru Wednesday Night...
Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue over the area
during the short term. The weather tomorrow will exhibit little
difference from today, with highs ranging from the mid 80`s to the
lower 90`s, with a few afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

However a change is coming on Wednesday, as a surface cold front
pushes into the area. Right now it looks like the cooler air will
lag a bit behind the wind shift, and the most substantial cool down
on Wednesday will be in the NW, where highs may struggle to make it
out of the 70`s. I am expecting some convection - but with the
ridge aloft, there will be little support for anything widespread
or significant precip accumulation.

&&

.Long Term...Wednesday Night through Monday
Quite a change with the models in the long term...with the models
generally becoming in better agreement. Long term begins with
some small rain chances generally across western Arkansas. It does
appear that moisture will be minimal and rainfall amounts will be
light with the best chances across western Arkansas. Behind this
front...noticeably cooler and drier air will be seen. This
situation, combined with the lack of significant rainfall across
the state over the past 30 days or so will result in an increased
threat of wild fires.

Previous model runs had the GFS building a ridge over Arkansas with
the ECMWF forming a closed upper low over Arkansas. This closed
upper low would bring rain chances across northern and eastern
Arkansas. However the 12z version of the ECMWF has completely
flipped and removed the closed low and replaced with with a strong
ridge of high pressure. As a result, the most notable changes to the
long term has resulted in slightly warmer temperatures and
precipitation chances trending down.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  90  68  88 /   0  10  10  20
Camden AR         68  91  70  91 /  20  10  10  10
Harrison AR       65  85  64  78 /   0  10  10  30
Hot Springs AR    69  90  70  89 /  10  10  10  20
Little Rock   AR  69  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  20
Monticello AR     69  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      65  89  67  88 /  10  10  10  20
Mountain Home AR  66  87  66  83 /   0  10  10  20
Newport AR        68  90  68  88 /   0  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     68  90  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
Russellville AR   68  90  69  88 /  20  10  10  30
Searcy AR         67  90  68  89 /  10  10  10  20
Stuttgart AR      68  90  69  89 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...53 / Long Term...65



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