Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281100 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN MOST
AREAS. SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH A
FEW GUSTS FROM 16 TO 20 MPH IN PLACES. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MUCH OF THE CWA WAS DRY EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. JUST
LIKE ON FRI...THERE MAY BE SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SW THAN YESTERDAY AS SOME OF
THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE A WAVE OF LIGHT PRECIP DROPPING SE FROM
SERN KS/NERN OK INTO WRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATER THIS
MORNING. KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE IN THIS AREA THOUGH
AS ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE HIGHER
POPS FURTHER NE AS CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER UNDER THE STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY...ESPECIALLY THE NERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN SEEN ON FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS THE FAR NE MAY ONLY MANAGE LOW
40S FOR HIGHS TODAY. SWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S
TO MID 60S...WITH LESS OVERALL CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF SUN. LESS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED...AND SRLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
NERN COUNTIES...TO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND
MOVE DOWN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE SUN NIGHT. HAVE POPS
INCREASING AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH ONLY INCLUDE CHANCE POPS AS DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AND OVERALL FORCING LACKING. EVEN
SO...GIVEN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S BEFORE THE FROPA...HAVE
MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED TSRA...THOUGH THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LACK THUNDER. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THIS FRONT
MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CHANCES FOR
HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...FOLLOWED BY DRYING AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

OVERALL...WHILE IT WILL BE UNSETTLED...RAIN DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD
OR HEAVY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH COOLING BEHIND THE NEW FRONT
AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  34  64  45 /  50   0  10  40
CAMDEN AR         64  44  78  59 /  20   0   0  40
HARRISON AR       52  36  67  42 /  30   0  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  42  73  54 /  20   0   0  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  40  71  53 /  30   0   0  40
MONTICELLO AR     59  43  74  58 /  20   0   0  40
MOUNT IDA AR      62  41  73  53 /  20   0   0  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  35  65  43 /  50   0  20  20
NEWPORT AR        43  35  64  45 /  50   0   0  40
PINE BLUFF AR     56  41  72  55 /  20   0   0  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  39  69  50 /  20   0  10  40
SEARCY AR         48  37  67  49 /  40   0   0  40
STUTTGART AR      52  40  69  53 /  30   0   0  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...46








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