Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 222048
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
248 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
DATA FROM LOCAL RADARS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE STATE...THEN WILL ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BY
21Z TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT  A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVELY WARM NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS...WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING AND THEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY A SHOWER
EVENT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER THEN THE EURO. HAVE
TRENDED TO THE SLOWER EURO AND KEEP MORE PRECIP OVER AR THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THE PRECIP GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF AR EARLY SUNDAY.
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS...SOME LOW CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN TO NORTH CENTRAL
AR...AS TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. LITTLE TO NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MOISTURE IS PUSHED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT. THEN DRYING AND COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPS
WILL START A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...THEN COOL TO AT OR BELOW
LEVELS SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  51  36  45 /  20  30  60  30
CAMDEN AR         49  52  39  49 /  20  50  50  30
HARRISON AR       38  49  32  40 /  20  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    46  50  36  46 /  20  30  50  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  47  51  37  47 /  20  40  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     51  54  40  49 /  20  50  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      44  48  34  43 /  20  30  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  49  34  42 /  20  20  30  30
NEWPORT AR        45  52  36  46 /  20  40  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     49  52  38  49 /  20  50  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   43  49  35  45 /  20  30  30  20
SEARCY AR         44  51  37  46 /  20  40  60  40
STUTTGART AR      47  52  38  48 /  20  50  60  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...59





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