Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 290032
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
732 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SW ARKANSAS PRIOR
TO 12Z. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
HEAVY RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON SHORT TERM
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL PROMOTE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS...DUE TO THE
NATURE AND DURATION OF EXPECTED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXTENDED TERM WILL BEGIN WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM...AS SWLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL BY
TUESDAY...AND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 53

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65


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