Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 231713 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST OVER AR ON THU. WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE AFTER 18Z THU...SOME SHRA COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
COUNTIES. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF ARKANSAS...WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AT THE SURFACE AND
COOLING ALOFT SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAYBE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY END BY FRIDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE
FRONT WILL STALL IN OR NEAR THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS HAPPENS.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...ALL EYES WILL BE ON A NEW STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN KANSAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. BY MONDAY THIS
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AND ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE MONDAY...BUT
IT IS A WAYS OUT YET. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR ARKANSAS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  51  77  50 /   0  10  70  20
CAMDEN AR         80  57  81  57 /   0  10  40  20
HARRISON AR       75  54  73  48 /   0  10  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    80  56  78  55 /   0  10  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  55  79  55 /   0  10  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     79  56  81  60 /   0  10  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      80  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  52  73  48 /   0  10  70  20
NEWPORT AR        76  52  77  51 /   0  10  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     79  55  81  57 /   0  10  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   78  54  76  51 /   0  10  50  10
SEARCY AR         77  50  79  53 /   0  10  60  20
STUTTGART AR      78  54  80  56 /   0  10  50  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





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