Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281715
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. WIND
SHIFT WITH EXPECTED FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME FOG AT ADF THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED
MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
AFTERNOON CU TO DEVELOP...WITH BASES 4-6 KFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...
AND THAT MEANS MORE HEAT/HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL EXIT TOWARD THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE FRONT WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A RAINMAKER...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND
THE AIR WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE. WHILE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT MORE BEARABLE TO BE OUTSIDE...VEGETATION WILL TEND TO DRY OUT
MORE READILY. THIS WILL CARRY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE 4 CORNERS
REGION OF THE CONUS. SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE...WITH DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL
REMAIN LOW AND DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE AT A MORE COMFORTABLE LEVEL THAN
SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEKS IN THE 60S...AND EVEN SOME 50S DEWPTS
POSSIBLE. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE
COOLER...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE
ABLE TO REBOUND MORE EASILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A COUPLE DEG EACH DAY THIS COMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC FLOW GRADUALLY SWITCHES BACK TO
A MORE SRLY COMPONENT...AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST
ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND FURTHER EAST OVER AR. MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED THOUGH...AND AS A RESULT...POPS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     98  77  96  73 /  10  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         98  76  99  77 /  10  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       96  74  93  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    98  77  98  78 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     99  78  99  77 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      98  72  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  97  75  95  70 /  10  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        98  77  96  73 /  10  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     99  76  98  76 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         98  75  99  72 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      98  77  97  74 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SHARP-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99


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