National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KLZK 251704
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1204 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.AVIATION...
BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA APPEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN OVER AR...WHILE SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT 4K FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE E TO S 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHWEST AR...WHILE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AR. AT THIS TIME CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE LOW AND HAVE ONLY USED VCSH IN NORTHERN TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED FROM EASTERN TEXAS UP TO
EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND UPPER TROUGHS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WHICH IS CAUSING SOME ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS TEXAS THIS MORNING.

THIS ENTIRE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM TO BE DRY...THOUGH SOME
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MAINLY IN WESTERN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IN
CONVEYING THIS THROUGH THE FORECAST IS HOW HIGH OF RAIN CHANCES TO
PUT IN. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST...BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SO
MOST LOCALES...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN AT
ALL. AS SUCH...JUST LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY...THANKS TO
INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE RIDGE AND ALSO ANOTHER WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND MOVING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. BY TUESDAY
THOUGH...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S STATEWIDE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST. DRY
AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SOUTH WIND
FLOW RAISES MOISTURE LEVELS. THEN THE CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...THEN OVER MUCH OF AR ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER AND SURFACE
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TO AR...AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CORE OF LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DOES
STAY WEST OF AR THURSDAY...THEN SHEERS OUT OVER AR ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE AT THIS TIME ONLY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS
IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     79  60  84  65 /  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         83  64  85  66 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       79  61  82  64 /  20  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    81  64  84  66 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  80  63  85  66 /  10  20  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     81  63  85  66 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  82  65 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  60  83  64 /  10  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        78  60  85  66 /  10  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     81  63  85  66 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   82  62  85  65 /  10  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         79  60  85  65 /  10  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      79  63  85  66 /  10  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99