Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181504
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1004 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST FOR CLEARING IN WEST ARKANSAS AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUING IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL
DISSIPATE BY NOON AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT KPBF AND KLLQ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND HAVE SOME TEMPO -RA WITH BKN050-060 CIGS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE MORNING SHOWERS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TODAY AROUND 5-7KT...THEN GO CALM OR
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
DECAYING SURFACE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY...AS SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGING MOVE INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH 80
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY...A STRONGER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IT
MAY NOT TOTALLY CLEAR TO THE EAST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO
SOME RAIN MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THAT TIME. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE THROUGH THU THANKS TO
STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE. THE PERIOD WILL END WITH LOW PRESSURE
FORMING IN KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITING THE
ROCKIES. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS...BUT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS ARKANSAS SOMETIME THURSDAY. AS IS
TYPICAL...DETAILS REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF SUCH A FEATURE IN
THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST IS A
NOD TOWARDS THE FASTER EUROPEAN MODEL...SHOWING RAINFALL ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  48  74  49 /  20   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         73  51  77  53 /  20   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       70  47  72  52 /  20   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  52  74  54 /  20   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  51  75  53 /  20   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  51  77  53 /  20   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      70  48  73  51 /  20   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  76  51 /  20   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        71  49  74  52 /  20   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     73  52  74  54 /  20   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  48  75  51 /  20   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         71  49  77  49 /  20   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      72  52  74  54 /  20   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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