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000
FXUS64 KMAF 092313
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
513 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through early this evening, however
expect fog to develop by late evening, or early Monday morning, at
all but KFST.  Since winds will be fairly light overnight and the
sky mainly clear, think we could see temperatures cool off to
freezing below late tonight at most TAF sites.  Therefore, some of
the dense fog that will develop will be freezing fog.  A cold front
will move south into the region late tonight/early Monday morning,
so visibility will rise, but IFR or MVFR ceilings will persist.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2013/

After a brief warmup yesterday, conditions are about 20 degrees
colder today northeast of the Pecos River behind a cold front that
pushed south and stalled near Interstate 10 this morning. An
abundant amount of freezing fog has persisted all day behind the
front along with some occasional flurries. Visibilities have
generally hung around the 1-2 mile range however some areas have
seen vsbys as low as 1/8 mile at times. The models are not handling
the current situation very well and think fog and flurries could
persist through the evening hours. Therefore have extended mention
of this through midnight CST. With the persistent fog and cold air
advection across Lea county and the Permian Basin, temperatures have
only warmed to the mid and upper 20s. Elsewhere, temperatures were
in the the 40s and 50s under sunny skies. Overnight lows will fall
to the teens and 20s areawide as surface high pressure settles in
over the region.

Tuesday will be slightly warmer (for the northeast zones at least)
with highs generally in the 40s. A re-enforcing cold front (front
number 2 for the week) will arrive Wednesday morning, holding high
temperatures to the 40s through Thursday. Not expecting any
precipitation with this front at this time. South winds return
Thursday evening and temperatures Friday will warm to the upper 50s
and low 60s across most locations. Our next chance for precipitation
will be Thursday afternoon and night as an upper level low
approaches the region from the west. The general consensus of the
model guidance (minus the GFS) is that precipitation will develop
initially across the south Thursday afternoon and expand across
eastern zones Friday night. Think we should have enough of a
moisture return to warrant these chance so will keep mention of
slight chance of showers Thursday afternoon and night for now.

Our 3rd cold front of the week will arrive Saturday morning, as the
upper wave progresses eastward, resulting in a slight cool down.
Once again, this will be another dry front. Beyond Saturday,
temperatures look to trend warmer toward seasonal readings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 19  42  25  42  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              20  43  27  42  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                26  45  27  43  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  29  50  30  54  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           24  45  28  50  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          28  39  30  42  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   20  43  24  40  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   21  46  25  51  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    20  44  26  44  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  21  43  26  43  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    23  46  23  45  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/27