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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251125
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
625 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Look for tempo MVFR ceilings at the southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals this morning in the 25/12z to 25/16z timeframe.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through much of tonight. A
complex of thunderstorms is expected to move southeast out of the
New Mexico mountains this evening and may impact KCNM and KHOB
after 26/00z. For now have introduced a prob30 group for VFR tsra
at these terminals after 26/00z.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Rain chances do not look very good today with mild temperatures
and a lack of upper disturbances providing little instability. The
highest rain chances today will be in the vicinity of the Davis
and Guadalupe Mountains where orographics will give added lift.
PoPs increase tonight and tomorrow as a weak upper trough moves
southeast out of New Mexico. There will not be a pronounced
surface boundary to focus convection so as of now it appears that
showers will be widely scattered across most of the area. PoPs
decrease beginning Tuesday and remain low through the remainder of
the week as an upper high over northwestern Mexico extends its
reach into West Texas.

Easterly flow behind yesterday`s cold front will keep temperatures
mild today, and may even decrease a few degrees tomorrow due to
increasing clouds and rainfall. Highs will return to near or above
normal levels beginning Tuesday as high pressure builds over the
area. There is potential for very hot temperatures again on
Thursday and Friday depending on the location of a dryline that is
expected to develop in the Permian Basin. Lower moisture to the
west of the dryline will increase the potential for high
temperatures by around 5 degrees. For now will keep highs close to
ensemble guidance and adjust higher later if necessary.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  69  86  69 /  30  30  50  40
Carlsbad                       93  69  89  68 /  30  50  40  30
Dryden                         91  72  91  72 /  20  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  91  70  90  68 /  30  20  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 83  64  82  64 /  30  60  50  20
Hobbs                          89  67  84  65 /  30  50  60  30
Marfa                          87  62  85  61 /  40  20  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           90  70  87  69 /  20  30  60  40
Odessa                         90  70  87  69 /  20  30  60  30
Wink                           94  70  90  69 /  20  30  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12