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000
FXUS64 KMAF 180535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will affect TAF locations overnight and into the
morning hours after sunrise with possible IFR ceilings at KMAF.
Surface winds will gradually become southeast across the area
later this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing west of TAF routes could affect KCNM after 00Z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03