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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310032
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Extension of Winter Weather Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Had planned on letting the advisory fall off but last observation
had freezing rain in it so extended the advisory out through 11 pm MST.
A mix of freezing rain... sleet... and snow is possible tonight along
with freezing fog. Main concern will be traffic on U.S. 62/180 going
through the Guadalupes where the road could have light icing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of light to moderate rain will continue across the area
through the night into the day Saturday.  There is even a slight
chance of a thunderstorm for FST during the day tomorrow.  Ceilings
and visibilities will gradually decrease through the evening into
the overnight hours.  Visibilities will decrease even further in
areas of moderate rain and ceilings may briefly get down to LIFR
between 12z to 15z.  Ceilings and visibilities are expected to
improve around 18z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low is located INVOF srn Calif with a rich mid/upper level
tap of Pacific moisture streaming nwd across the swrn CONUS. The
precip shield this morning was mainly out in the wrn CWFA closer to
the track of shrtwv trofs. Moisture has been/will be so rich (+3 to
+4 standard deviations per GEFS/NAFES) that it has/will keep temps
close to 32 in much of the GDPs, although temps are rising in the
GDP Mtns. Based on temps earlier and measured precip there could be
a couple of inches of snow up high, but Queen reports only rain and
GDP HQ reports light ice with FZFG. We will opt to let winter wx
advisory expire at 00Z. Overnight we expect that the precip shield
will expand as said shrtwv trof progresses ewd and as broad area
of lift resides over much of the region. Precip will mostly be in
the form of SHRA with isold embedded TSRA Sat PM. There is a slight
possibility of RA/SN/IP mix in nrn parts of Lea Co Sat AM. The chance
of precip is high, in fact widespread rain between .25-50" with
local amounts near or over an inch by Sunday morning when the chance
for precip starts to decrease. Local flooding will be possible. With
such high moisture content there will be narrow diurnal temp ranges.
A cold front will move thru the CWFA Sun AM as a nrn stream shrtwv
trof in cntrl plains drives it s, so even though precip ends Sun
it will still be cool. It could be even colder than MOS indicates.
Certainly cold by Mon AM with lows probably colder than MOS. A more
noticeable warm-up is not felt until Tue when lee trof/thermal ridge
return helping to push temps back into the 60s. Another front will
try to push thru W TX Plains Wed, but probably not until after
peak heating, thus colder Thur. Setting up to be warmer Fri (U50s)
with enuf of a NW mid level component for pressure falls and thermal
ridging.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  49  40  52  /  90  80  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              40  47  44  53  /  90 100  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                37  51  37  52  /  90  60  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  47  57  45  62  /  80  70  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           42  57  43  56  /  90  70  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  47  37  49  /  90  60  20  20
HOBBS NM                   35  49  36  52  /  90  70  20  10
MARFA TX                   38  59  33  56  /  90  60  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  51  40  53  /  90  90  20  20
ODESSA TX                  40  51  40  53  /  90  80  20  20
WINK TX                    43  56  40  58  /  90  70  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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