Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 281106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
506 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017


See 12z aviation discussion below.



Winds will become very gusty out of the southwest this afternoon
before subsiding this evening. Blowing dust will be possible with
the strong winds; otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/

Strong sw flow aloft will move across the area today resulting in
high wind warning and wind advisory conditions across the west and
central/northern areas, respectively. A 7h height gradient of 70dam
mostly supports this while a well developed upstream tilted OMEGA
couplet across the GDP Mtns supports a mtn wave. Satellite does
depict an area of extensive clouds moving into the area (supported
in forcast soundings too) which will limit mixing "some", enough for
us to keep high wind warning confined the western areas. We will opt
to extend wind advisory into Borden/Howard Co though. 85h temps and
downslope wind mostly supports the high temp forecast of M70-U70s SE
NM to mostly 75-85 remainder of the area. Blowing dust is already
in the forecast and based the blowing dust that occurred last
Thur this seems like a foregone conclusion. A cold front will
follow Wed AM and temps will turn cooler, closer to normal, as
surface high pressure hold in place til Thur/Fri. Noticeably
warmer Sat, especially across the w, and expanding east Sun/Mon.
GFS hints at light precip next Sun/Mon across the far SW, we
expect will be transitory.

Factors for critical/extremely critical fire wx conditions continue
to come into alignment today. A powerhouse mid level wind field of
40-60kts and 75-90kts within 7h-5h SW flow, respectively, will rake
the area. Said strong mid level winds will intersect the fire
effective low level thermal ridge just off the Caprock at the
surface and on the high plains at 85h.  Meanwhile the lowest surface
dewpoints will push hard into the windward side of the 85h thermal
ridge around 21Z today. High temperatures will be about 10-15
degrees above normal and with downslope winds minimum RHs will
fall below 10% in a few areas. SW-W winds of 25-35 mph will be
common this PM with even stronger winds across SE NM/parts of the
Trans Pecos. Fire danger will be widespread extreme today,
reflective of the dry grass/wind/low RH. 10hr/100hr fuels have
moved into the 75th percentile across most areas with a few spots
just into the 90th percentile, the driest this area has been in
quite a while. The overall result is a solid moderate Significant
Fire Potential, the likelihood for Initial Attack is high. Also
the fire weather as indicated the RFTI will fall into the high end
critical (6-7)to extreme(8) range. In the past wx patterns such
as this have resulted in the multiple occurrence of large
destructive fires. As such local officials should be prepared for
possibility of increased resource usage/need. Shading from
clouds/blowing dust will be an inhibitive factor.


Big Spring                     81  44  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       78  40  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         88  53  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  84  47  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  38  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          75  38  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  37  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           81  44  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         82  43  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           83  42  66  36 /   0   0   0   0


NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
     evening for Central Lea County-Northern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Eddy County

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning to 7 PM
     CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Howard-
     Loving-Martin-Midland-Presidio Valley-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this
     evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.



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