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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240854
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough axis across the central high plains will
continue to move east away from the area today. It will drop
a dry cold front in its wake today and result in temperatures
knocked back to near normal values this afternoon and tonight
under mostly clear skies.

The next upper level trough will move onshore across the west
coast Friday with west to southwest flow aloft ahead of it.
Lee trough formation and low level thermal ridging will
result in much above normal temperatures Friday through Saturday.
Across the Permian Basin east of the dryline Friday, the atmosphere
is progged to become unstable but am not anticipating any
thunderstorm development absent any meaningful shortwave in
the nearly zonal flow. By Saturday the aforementioned upper level
system is forecast to dig to the southern Rockies. Forcing aloft
will increase as this happens east of the dryline across the
eastern Permian Basin in the late afternoon and early evening.
Will Continue to mention the chance of thunderstorms in this area.
Breezy to windy conditions will develop with high winds possible in
the Guadalupe Mountains Saturday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

The potent upper level system is forecast to track across the
western high plains Sunday and drag another cold front through
the area. Behind this front temperatures will be knocked back to
normal Sunday with windy to very windy conditions developing.
Added areas of blowing dust Sunday afternoon across the northern
and central Permian Basin including the upper Trans Pecos
and southeast New Mexico. High winds look likely across the
Guadalupe Mountains with wind advisories likely needed for
portion of the plains.

Dry cyclonic northwest flow aloft is progged by consensus to take
place early to the middle of next week. This should result in
cool conditions with no precipitation. Went several degrees cooler
than guidance on high temperatures per progged 850 millibar
temperature forecast.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move south over the area today, with gusty
northerly winds lasting through the morning.  Dry air will remain
over the region, but it appears 20 foot wind speeds will decrease
before max heating, and minimum afternoon RH/s drop to 10 to 15
percent over all of southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas.
Recovery tonight will be poor to fair as dry air stays entrenched
over the area under westerly flow aloft.

On Friday, the flow aloft will become more southwesterly, with 20
foot southwesterly winds increasing over the Guadalupe Mountains and
portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  A dryline will form
over the Permian Basin with minimum afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to
15 percent along and west of a Lamesa to Big Bend line, but only to
15 to 30 percent to the east.  Temperatures will warm well above
normal and fire danger will be very high across the forecast area.
Since 20 foot wind speeds are expected to be 20 mph or greater over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains, will issue a Fire weather Watch for
these areas Friday afternoon and evening, or from 25/18Z until
26/02Z.  Recovery Friday night will be poor along and west of a
Carlsbad to Marfa to Lajitas line, and good to the east as the
dryline moves westward overnight.

A more widespread critical fire weather day is shaping up for
Saturday as an upper storm system approaches the region, and
southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of it.  Think locations
along and west of a Seminole to Kermit to Fort Davis line will have
several hours of warm, dry and windy conditions, so will issue a
Fire Weather watch for these areas from late Saturday morning until
Saturday evening.  Portions of the Permian Basin could be added to
this watch if current trends hold and 20 foot wind speeds end up
stronger further east.  Recovery looks poor over most of the
forecast area Saturday night, and will be followed by even more
widespread critical fire weather conditions Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  52  89  62  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  50  93  68  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                81  48  90  57  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  92  62  91  67  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  59  93  63  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          78  54  81  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   79  47  86  54  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  41  85  47  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  53  91  65  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  82  56  90  66  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    82  56  91  60  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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