Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 232355 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Widespread aviation impacts expected the next 24 hrs as SHRA/TSRA
develop on convective outflows thru at least 06Z, and MVFR low cigs
redevelop over eastern NM overnight. Nearly all near-term guidance
members show an active night as the current SHRA/TSRA over central
and western NM shifts slowly east into eastern NM. Any direct hits
from storms will be capable of gusty outflow to 35kt, MVFR cigs in
heavier rain, with frequent lightning. Greatest confidence on low
cigs will stretch from KTCC to KROW west to the central mt chain.
Some patchy FG is even possible. Mid level cloud cover will linger
into Thursday morning before another round of SHRA/TSRA develops
over all the high terrain by 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Atmospheric moisture is on the uptrend and has resulted in an
increase in storm coverage across central and western New Mexico
this afternoon, with a few strong to severe storms possible.
Thursday will be an active day as well, with chances for storms
trending up across the Eastern Plains. Locally heavy rainfall
amounts near two inches are possible both this evening and again
Thursday. High pressure aloft will strengthen over the region through
the weekend and allow temperatures to trend up some, with rain
chances trending down. The downturn in storm coverage will last into
early next week as high pressure aloft continues to dominate over the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PWATs are trending up some and a monsoon moisture plume is rather
obvious in the latest water vapor satellite imagery extending from
northern Mexico into New Mexico and eastern Arizona. This corresponds
with a notable increase in storm coverage across central and western
New Mexico this afternoon. Relatively slow storm motion combined with
a higher PWAT atmosphere will allow for some storms to produce
locally heavy rainfall with amounts between 2-3" possible. Thursday
may be even more active with a weak shortwave trough moving through
the currently established ridge. Rain chances will trend up more
across the Eastern Plains Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall
amounts between 2-3" once again a possibility. In particular, the
South Central Mountains and Northeast Plains look to be the hot spots
for locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding Thursday
afternoon/evening. Daytime temperatures will trend down some and be
below normal Thursday thanks to additional cloud cover and rain-
cooling.

The upper high is forecast to build and shift northwest across the
region to over the Great Basin from Friday through the weekend. This
transition corresponds with an uptrend in daytime temperatures and a
bit of a downtrend in terms of storm coverage. There is some
disagreement between the 12z medium range model solutions with regard
to a backdoor front going into Monday, which could recharge moisture
and lead to an uptick in storm coverage early next week. For now, our
forecast shows a downtrend in PoPs going into the middle of next week
with a dominant upper high centered over southern Utah and no
significant moisture input.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A nice crop of wetting storms will remain over N/C NM through
Thursday. Storm coverage and rainfall rates will lessen some on
Friday although modeling might be a tad overdone on that drying due
to another back door frontal intrusion Friday night.

Storm coverage during the weekend should favor western/central areas
due to the upper high location. The upper high is depicted to move
over the Great Basin during the weekend period. Eastern areas would
eventually become to stable and the steering flow would shift storms
movement to favor western and central areas. Confidence is pretty
solid for this solution.

The upper high should remain over the Great Basin area through at
least the middle of next week if the GFS and ECMWF solutions are
correct. Precipitation would continue to favor western and central
areas.A Pacific trough is expected to flatten the ridge somewhat
during the latter half of next week but the models begin to vary
more on how that flattening takes place. Thus a little more
uncertainty for later next week. The flatten most likely would allow
more storm coverage for the eastern plains.

Humidity values will remain on the higher side during the next
couple of days but lower some Friday. RH should increase slightly
early next week and remain at or above normal levels.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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