Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 300527 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1127 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
Upper level high centered over southern NV this evening.
Thermal/heat surface low near Four Corners will continue to
transport low level moisture northward into NM tonight and
Saturday. Another active convective day is in store Saturday.
Upper high center sinks south and southeast somewhat Saturday,
making storm motion to the east around 10kt across northern third
of NM and to the west around 10kt across the southern third. Slow
moving to nearly stationary storms expected across central areas.
All but KTCC and KROW have VCTS in for Saturday afternoon. Models
suggesting convection will continue across western and central NM
to between 03-06z Sunday.
.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016...
A very active week is on tap for showers and thunderstorms across
New Mexico. Storms this afternoon and evening will have the
potential to produce heavy rain, hail and wind gusts near 50 mph.
Storm coverage is expected to ramp up further as early as Sunday,
but most certainly, by Monday across western and central New
Mexico as monsoonal moisture streams northward. Heavy rains and
flash flooding will be a concern.
Storms have blossomed across northern and western NM this afternoon.
The outflow boundary that push through the plains overnight actually
pushed through the gaps of the central mountain chain from the
Manzanos southward and quickly ignited thunderstorms over the east
slopes of the southwest mountains. Meanwhile, the boundary across
the plains pushed well south of where models indicated, not
surprisingly, and winds have already veered back around to the south
and southeast. However, a boundary remains just north of the NM
border in SE CO, and storms are moving off the east slopes of the
Sangres this afternoon. The combination should yield an increase in
storm coverage across NE NM late this afternoon and this eve and
outflow boundaries from these storms may yield additional convection
farther south across the plains tonight. Some storms may be strong
or severe as LAPS analysis indicates around 2000 J/KG of CAPE with
decent shear. Overall, today has some of the best storm coverage,
particularly heavy rain coverage, that we have seen in quite some
The upper high over the Great Basin is still on tap to weaken and
shift eastward on Saturday. There will still be plenty of moisture
around, and perhaps remnant boundaries based on tonights convection,
for another active day, particularly across the high terrain.
Storm coverage is expected to increase further beginning as early as
Sunday across the southwest mountains and continue into early next
work week across all of central and western NM. Still looking for
the main upper high center to shift east of the state with a
secondary high over the Great Basin by Sunday. Over NM, the weakness
in the high, combined with an easterly wave helping to funnel
moisture northward, should result in a significant increase in PWATs
over the state. Again, should see the increase across southwest NM
on Sunday, and the remainder of the area by Monday. PWATs at ABQ may
be well above the 1 inch mark early next week. This will increase
the concern for heavy rain and flash flooding. We may potentially
need flash flood watches depending on if we can determine a vort
max/disturbance moving over the state any particular day as well as
antecedent conditions. Next week looks like the most active week we
have seen yet this Monsoon season.
The coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall has
increased dramatically today. Strong and erratic outflow winds are
also on the increase as evidenced by gusts near 50 mph around Taos,
Angel Fire, Santa Fe, and Las Vegas. Overnight rh recoveries will
trend much higher than recent days and shower activity will linger
into much of the night. The upper high will continue to weaken and
shift slowly eastward over NM through the weekend before settling
into TX next week. Storm motions will become very slow and erratic
beneath the upper high with torrential rainfall possible directly
under storm cores. Recent burn scar flash flooding will increase
each afternoon with repeated rounds of rainfall. Temperatures will
trend lower as well and 24-hr rh values will average in the 40 to
As the upper high moves east into TX the tap will open from old
Mexico and generate the first real monsoon burst pattern through
next week. Very good precip chances will spread into a larger area
of NM and storm motions will become more south to north. Not much
change is expected to this pattern through all of next week. Vent
rates will likely deteriorate for western NM where the main tap of
low level moisture will slide into the state. The east will see
moderate southerly breezes as well with storms drifting east out of
central NM on convective outflows. Green up will begin in earnest
for areas that have not seen much precip so far this year.