Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 261724 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1124 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR. Strong upper ridge to dominate next 24 hrs although high
clouds to gradually increase aft 27/12Z. Weak nly wind shift over
the ern plains at 18Z to transition to stronger lee trof aft
27/12Z. Isold to lcl MVFR cigs could develop from the KROW to KCVN
area 27/10-15Z but confidence low.
.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016...
A strong dome of high pressure building over New Mexico will provide
well above normal temperatures through the remainder of this week.
High temperatures will average 5 to 15 degrees above normal while
overnight lows average 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Breezes will
pick up this weekend as the high moves east and southwest flow
increases over the southwest U.S. Conditions will remain dry with
no notable precipitation chances in store through early next week.
The latest water vapor loop shows an upper high developing over
northwest Mexico. This feature will dominate our weather thru the
remainder of the week. The 00Z GFS/EC show the high strengthening to
~590dm along the U.S./Mexico border thru Friday. This is +1 to 2
stdev above climo according to the 00Z NAEFS. 700mb temps beneath
the ridge will average +10C which is also near +2 stdev. Expect
high temps to average 5 to 10F above normal and low temps as much
as 15 to 20F above normal. So far for the period from Oct.1-25 the
ABQ Sunport is tied 9th warmest. Continued near record warmth will
edge us closer toward the top 5 by the end of the month.
The upper high will break down over the weekend and allow stronger
zonal/sw flow to shift over the state. This will enhance surface
lee troughing and increase compressional heating across the east.
More record highs are likely Friday thru Sunday. The northwest
corner will begin to cool as 700mb temps fall closer to +6C, which
is still above climo. The 00Z model suite attempts to shift a
batch of -SHRA across the San Juan/Chuska Mts Saturday then again
on Monday. Left POPs below 15% in these areas with low confidence.
The extended GFS beyond Monday is hinting at a potentially more
active jet stream into the western CONUS. Most systems pass to our
north resulting in periodically breezy and cooler conditions. The
00Z EC shows a return to another strong ridge over NM by midweek.
Wetting precipitation is not expected for the remainder of this
week or early next week. Temperatures will continue to vary around
8 to 18 degrees above normal each day/night.
A strong ridge of high pressure will build over NM today through
Thursday, before shifting southeast of the area on Friday as an
upper level trough crossing the Great Basin clips the Four Corners.
Widespread poor ventilation is expected along and west of a line
from Capulin to Vaughn today, but vent rates should improve most
places Thursday as low level flow veers out of the south and becomes
gusty in the east due to a lee trough. Pockets of poor ventilation
should then redevelop across north central and northeast areas
Another weak ridge of high pressure will build over the area
Saturday, but this, too, will break down Sunday as a more
significant upper level trough passes north of NM. Stronger winds
aloft and a pronounced lee trough should result in breezy conditions
on Sunday, and some of these winds may linger into Monday as
directions shift from southwesterly to westerly.
Early next week looks gusty as southwest flow aloft remains
moderate and temperatures remain well above normal.