Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 260538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 PM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

The 06Z TAF package has only minor adjustments (mainly in winds)
from the 00Z issuance. VFR conditions are expected at all
locations. Otherwise, gusty (15-20kt) conditions will develop at
most TAF sites in the 17-20Z time frame but should diminish by
00Z. A mid- level cloud deck is expected to persist at KROW.



Quiet weather pattern across nearly all of north and central New
Mexico through at least Monday and perhaps lingering into Tuesday
and Wednesday. Low pressure aloft has taken shape across far
northwest Mexico and will drift to the west before beginning a
northward drift between Monday night and Tuesday. At least a few
showers or thunderstorms are currently expected across roughly
the south quarter of the state into Monday, across the southwest
third to half of the state Tuesday and roughly the west third by
Wednesday. Chances may increase somewhat and spread across the
west half to three quarters of the state during the latter half of
the week.


Lazily drifting, first to the west then eventually northward, mid
to upper low pressure currently nearing the central Gulf of
CA will be far enough away to keep most of the significant
associated precip to the s and sw of our fcst area, but kept some
relatively low POPS, lowered somewhat from previous lvls, across
the s to sw sections of fcst area tonight into Mon night, across
the western sections thereafter into Wed. The low and mid lvl
easterly flow will continue to very slowly decrease from n to s
across fcst area into Mon, lingering longest across the sw

Low will head more northward starting late Mon night or Tue, only
slowly evolving into a more open trough during the midweek period.
Later Wed into Thu and perhaps Fri there should be somewhat more
moisture and precip wafting into the state from the south, but
model indicated precip seems to be less than what normally be
expected from a fairly deep southerly fetch. This seems in part to
be due to rather limited dynamic forcing associated with the
slowly filling upper system. It is depicted as less well-defined
at 700 mb than at 500 mb. Still models do finally begin to break
out somewhat more precip Thu across roughly the west half or so of
the state. Overall daytime temp trend to be a slow upward one for
most, though perhaps not all, of the week.



Upper level low pressure system has developed, but it has formed
quite a bit farther southwest of where it was previously expected to
be. This has impacted winds, reducing some of the speeds of canyon
winds in the middle to upper Rio Grande valley while also displacing
showers farther south into the Permian Basin and out of the forecast
area. Temperatures are still cooler than normal by 5 to 10 degrees
in most zones this afternoon, and as night falls, lows mostly in the
30s and 40s will let good to excellent RH recoveries to transpire.
By tonight the cut-off low is expected to quickly shift
southwestward over the Baja Peninsula, a forecast position that
seems to trend farther south and west with each new model forecast
run. East and northeast winds will prevail over a majority of the
forecast area tonight, and while they will stay quite gusty in
central areas, the speeds are not forecast nearly as high as was
previously thought the past couple of days.

The forecast models still keep the cut-off upper low over the upper
Baja Peninsula on Monday, but have really reduced the lift and
dynamics needed for precipitation in NM. Any showers would be found
over the far southern tier of the forecast area, but most zones
would remain dry and cool with some breezy conditions prevailing in
the central to southwestern zones. Minimum humidity will range from
20 to 25 percent in the northern zones Monday afternoon to about 35
to 45 percent in southern zones. Ventilation rates will be poor in
northern zones, but fair in central to southern ones.

The upper low is forecast to weaken some and shift slightly
northward over the upper Gulf of California on Tuesday, and this
will cause precipitation prospects to largely abate, except in the
southwestern corner of the forecast area. Temperatures will warm up
a few degrees with less cloud cover Tuesday with ventilation still
suffering in some of the upper Rio Grande and more-so in the east
central plains.

The low is forecast to weaken more on Wednesday as it moves farther
inland on a northbound track. This will drag some modest subtropical
moisture into western NM where scattered thunderstorms are expected
both Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures returning closer to
seasonal averages. Central to western NM would retain scattered
showers and storms into Friday as modest moisture remains squeezed
between high pressure aloft to our south and another low pressure
system over the Pacific Northwest.


An upper level low is southwest of New Mexico, and a surface cold
front has plunged into the state from the northeast. Breezy to
windy conditions remain over the ABQ forecast area in the wake of
the front. Thus far, wind gusts have stayed below the 35 kt
criteria for an Aviation Weather Warning at KABQ, and are
expected to decrease some through the afternoon before potentially
spiking back up close to 30 to 35 kt around 26/0000UTC. At this
time no Aviation Weather Warning is planned, but observational
trends will be closely monitored. Broken to overcast low stratus
clouds are in place over the east central to southeastern plains
of New Mexico, but ceilings should hover just above MVFR
categories, only dropping when light rain showers move over.
Winds will weaken in many places overnight, but sill remain breezy
at KABQ while showers re-focus over the
Sacramento/Capitan/Magdalena/Gila mountains of south central to
southwestern New Mexico.





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