Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 150320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
820 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weather disturbances will brush northern
Arizona over the coming days. A cold front will continue to bring
breezy and colder weather through this evening. For Friday,
temperatures will warm some before yet another weather system
ushers in windy and colder weather later on Saturday through


.DISCUSSION...Not much to add this evening. Clear skies and
chilly overnight low temperatures are in order. Those northeast
winds will remain locally gusty along and south of the Mogollon
Rim but should subside Friday morning. Now, on to the weekend
system keeping our fingers crossed for the addition of moisture.

As a fast moving weather system and cold front continues to move
across Arizona, locally gusty northeast winds will persist
overnight. As the system exits the area on Friday some chilly
temperatures will remain Friday morning before temperatures begin
to rebound in the afternoon.

By Saturday night into Sunday morning the next trough looks to
move over the area. A lobe of instability looks to separate from
the main trough and become a closed low that moves from Baja
California and into New Mexico. Current forecast solutions allow
for the closed-low to inject moisture over the area and allow for
a decent chance for widespread precipitation early Sunday

There is a potential with the current model outputs that some of
this precipitation could fall in the form of snow, with a mean
ensemble solution coming in around 1 to 2 inches across much of
the Rim. Due to the lack of continuity run to run from model
solutions, confidence is not high in this solution at this time.
If subsequent runs continue to show similar tracks and moisture
amounts then expect confidence to increase.

After the weekend system a zonal flow is established ahead the
next potential system that looks to impact the area late next
week confidence remains low on timing and impacts on that system
do to its presence beyond the standard forecast period.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions expected over the
next 24 hours under increasing high clouds Friday afternoon. Surface
winds will taper off overnight to 5-15 kts as a weak weather
disturbance moves out of Arizona. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER... Winds will decouple in the valleys north of the
Mogollon rim as the inversion sets up, but continue across areas
along and south of the Mogollon Rim overnight, gradually decreasing
to 10 to 20 mph by morning. Fair and warmer weather is expected
Friday and Saturday with temperatures 5 degrees above normal.

Sunday through Tuesday... Another cold front will move through from
north to south early Sunday morning dropping temperatures to near
normal and bringing a chance of a few light rain or showers mostly
over the Mogollon rim and White mountains to the southeast . Clear
weather should return on Monday with temperatures back to about 5
degrees above normal.






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