Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 301022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
322 AM MST MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Just enough moisture will linger through the middle of
the week for a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms each
day. Near normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday, then
the warmest weather so far this year is likely by the middle of
the week and into the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...The weak upper low was drifting into western Arizona
this morning. This feature will move slowly toward the southeast
over the next few days. There is just enough moisture present for
a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly
over higher terrain areas. The chance of showers and thunderstorms
will increase slightly on Tuesday as some additional mid level
moisture moves into the area from the northeast. Activity that
develops through Tuesday will be high-based, capable of producing
wind gusts to 40+ mph but little in the way of rainfall.

High pressure will begin to build over the region Wednesday and
persist through next weekend. A few more showers or thunderstorms
are possible Wednesday, then the slight chance of showers should
be limited to far eastern AZ into the weekend. The big story from
Thursday into the weekend will be our first summer-like
temperatures of the year so far. Daytime highs are currently
forecast to range from 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of
year, low to mid 80s for the mountains, 90s for areas around 5000
ft such as Prescott, Winslow, and Payson. Some 100+ degree
weather will affect the lowest elevations of Yavapai County as
well as the bottom of the Grand Canyon.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Another round of high-based
showers and thunderstorms are possible from 18z to 03z over higher
terrain, with the greatest coverage over the Kaibab Plateau. Erratic
surface winds gusting to 35 knots are possible in the vicinity of
storms. Elsewhere, expect relatively light south to southwest winds.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A slow moving and weak upper low will bring south to
southwest flow to the area on today. Mainly slight chances for high-
based convection over higher terrain. By Tuesday, this low moves
into the district with somewhat lighter and more westerly winds.
High-based convective development will spread back south and east,
but coverage will remain isolated at best.

Wednesday through Friday...The threat for high-based convection will
persist through this period, although coverage will be isolated.
Winds will be light, with poor ventilation at night. Daytime
temperatures will climb to the hottest so far this year by Thursday
and Friday.






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