Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271550
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TODAY AND FRIDAY... WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 10 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP
CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /327 AM MST/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN FORECAST IN MANY LOCATIONS. FURTHER WARMING ALOFT IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TO
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER ELSEWHERE...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS IN SOME SPOTS. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND GRADIENT WINDS
STRENGTHEN. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD.

HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE SPREAD
AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGH. THE GFS HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT WITH SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODEL RUNS DELAY THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION AND TRACK IT FURTHER TO
THE NORTH WHICH WOULD LEAVE ARIZONA IN A DRIER PATTERN. WILL WAIT
FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC VARIABLE TO 10 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/RR
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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