Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211656

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
956 AM MST Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A brief period of cooler temperatures today before
above average temperatures return again for Monday through at
least Wednesday. Another cold front could impact the area after
mid week.


.UPDATE...Might lighter winds are expected today than yesterday.
We could still see locally breezy northwest winds today. The 12Z
KFGZ sounding had northwest winds 15 to 20 kts a few thousand feet
off the surface. Already updated the sky cover over southern
Apache and Navajo Counties for this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /333 AM MST/...The airmass behind the cold front
that pushed through the region late last night and early this
morning will be noticeably cooler today. Expect high temperatures
to be near normal, and even a few degrees below normal in some
locations. This period of cooler weather will be short-lived as a
ridge of high pressure builds over the southwest US Sunday into
early next week. This will bring a return to above normal
temperatures and no chance of precipitation through mid week.

Latest model guidance is suggesting the potential for a front to
push across northern Arizona during the Thursday-Friday timeframe.
However, individual model solutions diverge significantly with the
details on this front so confidence is low on any impacts it would
have across the area at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hrs. Light north to northeast winds are forecast across the
majority of northern Arizona, with with speeds generally 10 knots or
less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...For today, expect light north to northeast winds,
along with drying conditions behind a departing cold front. On
Sunday, temperatures begin to warm as a strong ridge of high
pressure builds in from the southwest.

Monday through Wednesday...High pressure will lead to well above
normal temperatures and low RH values. Expect north to northeast
winds through Tuesday, likely shifting to the west to southwest on






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