Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 262243

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 PM MST TUE JUL 26 2016

A dry and more stable air should move southward leading to a
decrease in storm activity from I-40 northward on Wednesday. To
the south and southeast, expect scattered storms to continue. An
increase in storm activity should return across all of northern
Arizona late in the week.


Thunderstorm coverage and intensity has actually dropped off quite
a bit today, with the exception of a few pockets near Prescott
and elsewhere. Expect that this downtrend will continue into
tomorrow, with activity not really ramping back up again til later
in the week.

An upper level high pressure ridge is forecast to develop to the
NW of Arizona later today and into Wednesday. This shifts the
subtropical high pressure ridge into an unfavorable position for
sustaining a northward push of deep subtropical moisture. In
fact, with the subtropical high pressure ridge to our NW, this
flow pattern will bring drier more stable air to portions of
northern Arizona, mainly from the Mogollon Rim northward from
Wednesday through Friday.

Saturday into Tuesday...The subtropical high pressure ridge
returns to a more favorable position, to the east of Arizona. This
will allow for deeper subtropical moisture to move northward and
numerous thunderstorms to return to northern Arizona.


For the 00Z package...SCT SHRA and TSRA will continue across
northern Arizona til around 02Z...then become ISOLD -SHRA. ISOLD
to WDLY SCT -SHRA/-TSRA 18Z-00Z tomorrow. MVFR and IFR possible in
the stronger storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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