Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 251632
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 AM MST THU AUG 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered thunderstorms each day through
Saturday, along with cooler than normal daytime temperatures. A
drying and warming trend is expected late in the weekend and into
early next week.
.DISCUSSION...The sounding this morning had 0.56 inch PW and an
inversion starting at around 525 mb. There is decent CAPE once
surface heating develops. The convective temperature is only 70F.
There is a clockwise circulation over eastern Arizona today so storm
motion will not be uniform. Current forecast is in good shape and
may only need a few minor updates.
.PREV DISCUSSION /336 AM MST/...Skies have cleared over most of
Coconino and Yavapai counties at 3 AM with scattered mid clouds
lingering over eastern Arizona. Low and mid level flow will turn
more from the south and southwest today and this will bring a slight
increase in moisture to areas along/north of the Mogollon Rim, with
values south of the rim about where they were yesterday. A weak
disturbance will move eastward along the AZ/UT border later this
afternoon and overnight, providing some lift as well as keeping mid-
level temperatures colder than normal (which increases instability).
The day should start out sunny for much of the area also. These
factors point to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon
and evening, with the best chances from the Mogollon Rim northward.
Convection could continue well into the evening and even overnight,
especially the northern third of the state. Still expect some
isolated storms for Gila/Yavapai county but the steering flow is not
as favorable to bring storms into this area as it was yesterday.
Deep layer wind shear is on the weak side most of the day,
increasing a bit this evening, so an isolated strong storm is
possible with hail and gusty winds the main threats.
Chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms continues
Friday and Saturday, then a decrease in moisture and warmer
temperatures is expected Sunday through Tuesday as high pressure
builds over the region. A few isolated storms are still possible,
mainly for higher terrain areas in eastern AZ. The flow could
become more favorable for increasing moisture and storms again by
.AVIATION...For the 18z package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, primarily along and north of a line extending through
Prescott and Payson. General storm motion to the northeast.
Otherwise...light winds with scattered ceilings 7000 feet above
ground level. Activity becoming isolated overnight. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
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