Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 011038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
338 AM MST SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect quiet weather and near average temperatures on
Saturday, although a few light showers will be possible over
higher terrain. Increasing winds are forecast ahead of an
approaching low pressure system on Sunday, followed by strong
southwest winds and noticeably colder temperatures on Monday and


.DISCUSSION...Northern Arizona will remain under a mild southwest
flow aloft over the weekend with a ridge axis centered to the east
and a trough advancing onto the West Coast. Enough low level
moisture will result in a low chance for showers today over the
higher terrain anad along the northern border. Coverage will be
isolated and stability aloft is expected to hamper the chance for
any thunder. As the trough moves through CA on Sunday, increasing
pressure gradients will give way to breezy conditions across
northern AZ particularly from Flagstaff westward. In addition,
latest forecast model runs continue to show an increase in shallow
moisture ahead of the advancing cold front which will continue the
chance for showers Sunday shifting east Sunday night. Very dry mid
level air is expected to limit any precipitation to only light

The trough and cold front sweep through Arizona on Monday bringing
colder and windy weather. Strong southwest winds will develop
ahead of the front with many areas from Flagstaff north and east
seeing gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range. Daytime temperatures will
be about 10 degrees colder than average. Winds will decrease
Monday evening and the light overnight winds combined with the
cool airmass in place and clear skies will allow overnight lows
to drop the some of the coldest yet this season. Elevations above
7000 feet will likely see a deep freeze with low temperatures
dropping into the mid to upper 20s.

A period of generally quiet weather follows from Tuesday through
the end of next week as the trough moves east and Arizona stays
under a dry northwesterly flow. Temperatures will remain below
average through at least Wednesday but may have a chance to warm
up by late in the week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...A few showers are possible this
afternoon. Mostly VFR conditions will prevail. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.






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