Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020412
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
912 PM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR THE DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM EXITS ARIZONA. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE YET
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING TO CREATE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AGAIN TUESDAY. SUK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /252 PM MST/...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SPIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, THE CURRENT LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND HEAD EAST OF ARIZONA. IN RESPONSE, SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO OVER 9000 FEET. QUITE A FEW AREAS ARE
VERY MOIST AND ANY CLEARING COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES NORTHERN ARIZONA.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 9000
FEET, DIPPING A BIT LOWER IN HEAVY SHOWERS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING. CONFIDENT THAT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LESS
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION BUT HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW (OTHERWISE KNOWN AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS).

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
CREATED A MOIST LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. BY MID MORNING SCT -SHRA
AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
TUESDAY AND BRING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE PACIFIC WILL BRING INCREASED GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUK/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...SUK
FIRE WEATHER...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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