Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260315
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA
TONIGHT  AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS  EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EAST TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER FORECASTS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL  CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER  DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO WINDOW ROCK AND NORTHWARD.

GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
ARIZONA STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
EVENING EAST OF A TUBA CITY TO PAYSON LINE WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VIS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
UTAH BORDER. SFC WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE
IN STORE STARTING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/MAS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...DL


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