Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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402
FXUS64 KHUN 052129
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
329 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE
NEARLY UNLIMITED INSOLATION...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE NOTED CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM IN THE POLAR JET. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THIS REGION WAS BRINGING LIGHT/
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE ABOVE NOTED DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT HEADS
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. GIVEN
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OF CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
NIGHT-TIME AND SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
SE FROM THE PACIFIC-NW TO THE SOUTHERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA.
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO WORK WITH...IT WILL ALSO
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF A COLD RAIN ON MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL DOWN ABOUT 10F OR SO...FROM THE MID 50S SUN TO MID 40S MON.

COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX...PRIMARILY OF RAIN/SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AND BELOW FREEZING MON NIGHT...RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH AND BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD NOT
RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE PRECIP SHOULD
FALL MAINLY AS LIGHT SNOW DURING TUE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. DRIER AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT SHOULD END SNOW
CHANCES. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
20S.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. WITH THIS...WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS. WE HAVE REMOVED A WIND
CHILL MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THESE WARMER TRENDS. DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    29  50  30  55 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        29  51  31  55 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      28  49  29  54 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  28  50  29  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   28  49  30  52 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    27  49  28  53 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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