Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
FXUS64 KHUN 231940
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
240 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016
Convection continues to develop nicely across parts of the area in
response to rapid destabilization/heating. Given what little if any
steering flow/vertical shear is in place, showers/storms are very
pulse like in nature. Thus far most of the activity has been water
loaded/low topped showers, although a few tstms have managed to form
in slightly more favorable updraft regions in various locations over
the region. As afternoon heating continues, a few strong storms
capable of gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall are certainly
possible before activity overall weakens later this evening. The dew
pts have managed to mix out a little/or more into the lower 70s
range across much of the local area. This has kept max heat indices
right around the 101-102F mark given the current temp trends mainly
in the 90-90F range. These temps may climb a few more degrees before
the afternoon hrs are done in areas which do not receive any precip.
As such, the Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire at 7 PM. Once
the rain ends, temps overnight look to fall more into the lower/mid
70s for most of the cntrl TN Valley.
Tomorrow should be a fairly similar day, with scattered convection
xpcted to begin late in the morning into the early afternoon hrs.
Afternoon highs are again xpcted to be in the lower/mid 90s range,
although precip coverage may be a tad higher on Sun again in a
weakly sheared environment. Heat indices may also approach 105F in a
few areas which do not receive any rainfall, but the coverage is
xpcted to be fairly brief/limited. Once again, the pulse like nature
in the convection may translate into a few strong tstms capable of
gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.
With an upper ridge/weak steering flow pattern dominating the wx pic
from the Desert SW into the cntrl Gulf region, the only feature the
latest model suites are hinting at impacting the area may be a weak
frontal boundary out of the OH Valley/Mid Atlantic states dropping
into the region around the start of the new work week. What this may
result in is moisture increasing slightly along the sfc boundary
with perhaps slightly higher dew pts and rain chances. While it will
certainly be unseasonably hot/humid for Mon, scattered showers/tstms
may very prevent more widespread heat indices around the 105F mark
across the area. Slightly drier air may then filter into the region
from the n providing for a little bit of a break in the excessive
afternoon heat, with scattered showers/tstms continuing each day
before diminishing during the evening period.
(Issued 1202 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop over
the area through the afternoon. Have included VCTS at both sites
after 20-21Z into early evening. Variable and gusty outflow winds in
and near storms are expected. Gusts up to 35-40kt are possible.
After the thunderstorms dissipate this evening, VFR conditions are
expected tonight into Sunday morning.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville 75 95 74 95 / 40 30 20 30
Shoals 74 94 74 96 / 30 40 20 30
Vinemont 72 92 73 93 / 40 30 20 30
Fayetteville 71 91 70 91 / 40 30 20 40
Albertville 72 93 72 92 / 40 30 20 40
Fort Payne 71 92 71 92 / 40 40 20 40
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>008-016.
TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ096.
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