Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 040456
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

A QUASI-SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE POLAR
JET RELEGATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER MORE SUBTROPICAL
JET LIES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE OH/MS RIVER
CONFLUENCE TO THE NORTHEAST. A SHEARED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SUBTROPICAL JET AND A COUPLE OF OTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG PART OF A SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS LYING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN SITTING NEAR TN/KY BORDER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SL.77


&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 854 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL MOVING
ACROSS SE MISSOURI. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CWA AS OF 02Z. WILL
LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF COVERAGE
BUT STILL EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE WAVE INCHES
CLOSER. INSTABILITY IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR AND FORCING CANNOT RULE OUT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR A SEVERE STORM ARE LOW
AT THIS POINT WITH THE BIGGEST HAZARD BEING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST AS HAS BEEN
THE TREND THROUGH THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO COOL A WHOLE LOT
MORE WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER AROUND.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE ONCE AGAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE TERMINALS
AS OF TAF ISSUANCE SO WILL START -SHRA. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE TILL THE LATE MORNING AND WILL INCLUDE
THE PROB30 AT 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER THAT
WITH A DRY PERIOD IN THE LATE EVENING. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR TIMING. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
2-4KFT THROUGH PERIOD. AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 15-18KT MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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