Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 042319 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALSO INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BASED
UPON CURRENT TRENDING, WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS INTO THE EVENING. THE INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
00Z...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE
INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION...SO WILL END PRECIPITATION BY AFTER
01Z TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THIS TRENDING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT,
AND WILL EVEN GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IS
PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS ALSO INDICATED TO
ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER POP FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. IT WILL
BE WINDY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
65, NOT INCLUDING CULLMAN COUNTY, ALABAMA. DECENT COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
DECENT WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BOTH DAYS TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE POP FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BY LATE MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
ARE CONCERNED, WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...CDFNT NOW APPROACHING NW AL AND SHRA/TSRA THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT ARE QUICKLY MOVING SE OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS ANOTHER LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER MID TN THAT IS HEADING
TOWARDS NRN AL. HOWEVER UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS PCPN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL KEEP SHRA AT THE KHSV
TAF SITE ONLY FROM 01Z TO 04Z. MAY NEED TO AMEND TO ADD THUNDER BUT
WITH LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA FOR NOW. AFTER
04Z SKIES SHOULD BE CLR AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW...NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS MAY BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NE
AL...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ006-008>010.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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