Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 222347
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AND TOWARDS THE COAST. CEILING WILL REMAIN AROUND 025 TO 045 THEN
BEGIN TO DROP AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF PULLS
BACK TO THE NORTH. MVFR AFTR MIDNIGHT FOR CEILING ISSUES. STORMS
ON TAP FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET WEATHER DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THINGS WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
A MORE WET PATTER DEVELOPING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY 60 MILES OFFSHORE...WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TOWARD THE PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LINE BY MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A
RETURN TO A MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL RESUME. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BY SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...WHERE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
LOCATED. THEN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY AS THE
BOUNDARY RETREATS.

LATER IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE USUAL PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT FROM THE
PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY AND MOIST FLOW...WITH
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS WILL
ARRIVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2
INCHES...WHICH IS TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR LATE MAY...WITH
MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...MAKING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

THIS MOIST FEED WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS POINT...AREA WIDE RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SHOW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED SPOTS. WITH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY
RUNNING AT HIGH LEVELS AND WET GROUNDS...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS.

RUA

MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...JUST ALONG THE MARINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...WILL MOVE
BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST...AND INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY....IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND
AND BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS. THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  85  71  85 /  10  50  30  50
LCH  71  85  74  85 /  20  40  30  50
LFT  69  85  73  86 /  20  40  30  40
BPT  73  85  76  84 /  30  40  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19


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