Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 270006
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
606 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.AVIATION...Deepening moisture on a strengthening low level
southerly flow will overspread the forecast area tonight. VFR
cloudiness now in place will be lowering through MVFR at all
terminals, and expecting our southern terminals of BPT, LCH, LFT
and ARA to continue the trend down into IFR. Winds will remain
sufficiently elevated that fog with any significant visibility
restrictions is not anticipated. Sufficient moisture and lift will
be in place to carry VCSH after midnight area-wide. Convective
chances increase through the day as disturbances aloft move
through within a southwesterly flow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds have moved into the region this afternoon as temperatures
climbed into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Radar is indicating
showers moving across eastern Texas and northern Louisiana. A
complex low pressure system has developed over northern Texas and
moves eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours... this will help to
drag additional moisture out of the gulf. Also series of shrtwvs
embedded in the long wave trof will ripple across the region drg
this period further supporting storm development. Best potential
for svr wx though looks to be across northern La into Arkansas and
Mississippi.

Southeast Texas and southern Louisiana will remain in the warm
sector overnight allowing for temperatures to hold in the low to
mid 60s. Looking for scattered showers late tonight and into
Monday morning. A bit of fog will develop and hold through
sunrise.

Storms becoming likely during the day tomorrow as the moisture
profile deepens. This moisture looks to ride up and over the warm
front that is expected to be located in Arkansas and central
Mississippi during this time period. By the eve hours most of the
lift and support looks to have moved out of se Tx and srn La with
rain chances falling Monday night into Tuesday. The atmosphere
stabilizes somewhat on Tuesday. By the evening hours on Tuesday
the next front begins to approach from the west. Storms are
expected to develop along and ahead of the front which looks to
move through during the day on Wednesday. A few showers will
linger behind the front before ending as ridging aloft becomes
established. Look for dry and cool weather through the rest of
the week with storms returning late in the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  62  78  66  83 /  50  70  30  20
LCH  65  78  68  80 /  50  60  10  10
LFT  65  79  68  81 /  40  60  20  10
BPT  67  81  68  82 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening for
     GMZ435-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23



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