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000
FXUS64 KLCH 021915
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
115 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WITH LOW CEILINGS TO HANG OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP. VSBY XPCD TO DROP
AFTER SUNSET ALONG W/ CEILINGS TO LIFR/IFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
AREAS OF FOG ACRS SE TX AND SRN LA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH DENSE
FOG HAS LIFTED ACRS SE TX/SW LA AND FORMED ACRS THE ACADIANA
REGION. GIVEN THIS DISTRIBUTION...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SE TX/SW LA AND ISSUED IT FOR THE ACADIANA
PARISHES WITH AN EXPIRATION AROUND 11 AM. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH
STRETCHED FM THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON PARISH/JEFFERSON
COUNTY NE TOWARD BTR. THIS IS LEADING TO A RATHER WIDE TEMP RANGE
AS WELL...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACRS ACADIANA ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S TO ITS WEST. A DISTURBANCE
PASSING OVER THE REGION IS SETTING OFF SCT SHOWERS ACRS CNTL AND
SW LA AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE AND THE SFC BOUNDARY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
REFLECT RECENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX WITH
HI-RES/HRRR/RUC/NAM GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE AFTN...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...A SOUPY MESS OF LGT RAIN, LIFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND
ADVECTING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS IDEAL FOR SEA FOG. BEST
ALTERNATE WOULD BE AEX BUT ONLY FOR VIS LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS THERE AS WELL.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  75  64  74  36 /  20  30  30  50  70
KBPT  63  75  64  73  36 /  20  30  30  50  60
KAEX  50  74  63  69  31 /  30  30  40  70  70
KLFT  61  76  65  74  35 /  20  30  30  50  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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&&

$$