Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 311738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...Scattered to broken cu within VFR currently over the
region and this will remain the case this afternoon. Radar is
depicting a few showers over lower Acadiana. Will carry VCSH/VCTS
at all terminals during max heating. Otherwise VFR to continue
overnight and Wednesday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1043 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

Not much change to the going forecast. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along and ahead of the

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 723 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

For 12z TAF issuance.

A fairly quiet night is giving way to morning with generally VFR
conditions noted at the terminal sites. Despite reasonable low-
level moisture noted in forecast time-height sections...the lack
of good moisture aloft and focus mechanisms (along with capping
noted around h8 per forecast soundings) should keep most convection
at bay today.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...Weak ridging is in place across the region at the
surface and aloft this morning and will remain in place through
the day. This will keep the precip chances low, however isolated
late morning through afternoon storms will be possible. What
convection does develop will die off after sunset as daytime
heating is lost.

By Wednesday and Thursday the pattern begins to become more wet.
A low pressure system over the northern plains will send a cold
front into North LA and N TX while an upper level low over the
desert southwest moves closer to provide upper divergence.
Moisture will stream ahead of the incoming cold front while
moisture is also pulled in by the upper low. The upper low is
forecast to cut off over South Texas while the front remains in
the region through the weekend. The front may drift to near the
gulf coast during the weekend. This will provide multiple days of
high rain chances with the chance of some being heavy at times.

Early next week an upper trough deepens across the eastern half of
the country. This shears out the cut off upper low and allows a
drier NW flow to develop pushing the front into the gulf. Drier
weather is forecast as this occurs.

MARINE...Weak ridging will remain stretched into the coastal
waters from the east through Thursday. This will keep a light to
perhaps moderate onshore flow in place. While winds are expected
to remain generally light and southeast Friday and Saturday
scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible. A
frontal boundary may move to the coast and stall by Saturday night
or Sunday making winds more variable. The front will push away
from the coast early next week.


AEX  91  69  88  70 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  89  71  87  71 /  10  10  20  30
LFT  91  72  88  71 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  89  72  87  72 /  20  10  30  30


.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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