Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
452 FXUS64 KLCH 150501 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in response to an upper trough. - An upper ridge will build over the region through midweek, lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend. - A surge of tropical moisture late in the week may result in multiple days of heavy rainfall and increased flood potential. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The combination of dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and afternoon heating will be enough to overcome weak ridging both at the surface and aloft to produce continued scattered convection this afternoon and early evening. Inland storms will dissipate quickly around sunset this evening although some may continue over the coastal waters. Upper level ridging will continue to strengthen over the northern gulf Tuesday putting a lid on all but the most tenacious afternoon storms. NBM PoPs of 20-30% appear reasonable for this scenario. The more isolated convection and cloud cover will result in highs climbing into the mid 90s especially across central Louisiana and interior parts of Southeast Texas where afternoon mixing will allow some slightly drier air (lower 70s dewpoints) to mix to the surface. Wednesday will be a transition day as the upper ridge in place will begin to become displaced by a weak tropical disturbance moving into the eastern gulf. NHC presently gives this disturbance a 30% chance of development over the next seven days, but regardless, the surge of moisture and proximity of the low will increase PoPs. For Wednesday, this increase looks to be limited to south central Louisiana which may see some scattered convection from the outer periphery of the disturbance. The remainder of the region will remain more under the influence of the retreating ridge which will limit storms and yield afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The forecast for the second half of the week will be largely dependent on the possible development and track of the tropical disturbance. The vast majority of guidance keeps the disturbance very weak and sloppy while drifting it westward across the northern gulf. In this scenario, the region will see a significant increase in precipitation chances Thursday through Saturday especially closer to the coast. Most likely ensemble probs depict 1-3 inches of qpf across the region while 90% exceedance probabilities which are used as a reasonable worst case scenario depict 3-5 inches with the highest totals across lower acadiana in both cases. However, this is a very low confidence forecast and will likely change over the next few days. The increasing cloud cover and precipitation associated with the disturbance will temper afternoon highs a few degrees Friday and Saturday. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Only change since the previous TAF package was to add TEMPO groups for BR at the Acadiana terminals around sunrise. Otherwise, still expecting light winds and high clouds area-wide today along with a stray shower or two in the afternoon. No concerns expected. 17 && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain light onshore winds and low seas through Wednesday. The forecast through the second half of the week will be highly dependent on the potential tropical development in the eastern gulf. Regardless of development, much higher precipitation chances and increasing winds and seas are expected Thursday through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s through the week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 50 - 70%. Diurnal thunderstorms will develop from late morning through early evening today, however an upper level ridge building into the region will lower daily rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Higher rain chances return Thursday through Saturday as a tropical disturbance begins to influence the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 96 73 97 74 / 10 0 0 10 LCH 92 76 93 76 / 20 0 10 10 LFT 93 75 93 75 / 30 0 30 30 BPT 92 75 93 75 / 20 0 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...17