Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 071757
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
TIME. VFR TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME THIN
CIRRUS THE ONLY CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS
AND A CLEAR SKY MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP PRIOR TO EXPECTED FROPA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. FOR NOW HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AT THESE
STIES. DRY CDFNT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...WITH BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
COMBO OF GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1SM AT ALL BUT THE
ACADIANA SITES AT TIMES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE STARTING
MID-MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD THEREAFTER GIVEN MINIMAL MOISTURE NOTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS PAST THE REGION...WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN FOR A WHILE.

A DRY FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK.THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND.

MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING SEA STATES.

WINDS ARE DEFINITELY GOING TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PRESENT
FORECAST CONDITIONS KEEP SPEEDS JUST SHY OF GALE. CONTEMPLATED A
WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT DECIDED
TO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  38  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  41  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  60  41  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  61  41  59  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$


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