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000
FXUS64 KLCH 060440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1040 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED ABOUT TWO THIRDS OF THE WAY ACRS THE
CWA...EXTENDING FM JUST SOUTH OF OPELOUSAS TO NEAR GRAND CHENIER
SW TO ABOUT 40 NM SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND. TEMPERATURES DROP SHARPLY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD
OF IT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S JUST BEHIND IT. KLCH RADAR SHOWS
SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...MAINLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDES THE COOLER SHALLOW SFC AIR.
THE REGIONAL MOSAIC DEPICTS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...ACRS N TX INTO SE OK.

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP WRN CONUS 5H TROF CROSSES THE
AREA...WHILE CAA CONTINUES AT THE SFC. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS
COVERED FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...DID MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS/WX AS WELL AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS. FOR POPS...ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. ALSO KEPT THE DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN COASTAL
WATERS ZONES AS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY EAST...AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THESE ZONES THROUGH 12Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 12Z...AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER FOR
THE EASTERNMOST MARINE ZONE (GMZ455). LASTLY...MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO BRING IN LINE WITH
RECENT OBS AND FCST TRENDS. LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE LAKES REGION OF SE
TX...40S ACRS CNTL AND WRN LA AND LOWER SE TX...WHILE PORTIONS OF
ACADIANA WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY BEFORE COOLER TEMPS MOVE
IN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOVERING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A CANADIAN FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH JACKSON THROUGH SABINE
PASS THROUGH CORPUS CHRISTI...WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY SOUTH AND
EAST...EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDMORNING FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN AIR IS RIDING IN ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...BEFORE UPSLIDING
THE FRONTAL SURFACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.

AN OVERRUNNING RAIN SCENARIO IS SETTING UP...EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
OCCASIONAL LIFR CEILINGS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013/

DISCUSSION...MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED FROM THE
ALEXANDRIA AREA TO BEAUMONT...THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE TEXAS
COAST. PRE-FRONTAL LAFAYETTE COMING IN AT A BALMY 80
DEGREES....A NOT SO BALMY 44 BEHIND THE FRONT AT LUFKIN TEXAS.
RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT THE AREA.

COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING AREA COVERAGE OF
RAINS. POST-FRONTAL AND OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF COLD OVER-RUNNING
RAINS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST EARLY MORNING LOWS SATURDAY FLIRTING
WITH THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THUS WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP...CARRYING R- OR ZR-
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUMMARIZING...COLD WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY.

MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH RAINS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  49  50  35  42 /  50  70  30  50
KBPT  43  47  36  45 /  40  60  30  50
KAEX  42  42  33  42 /  60  70  30  50
KLFT  62  62  38  45 /  40  70  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR VERMILION BAY.


&&

$$