Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 292357
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...VCTS ENDING SOON AT LCH, LFT, AND ARA. VFR WITH AGAIN
VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D SHOWS A FEW
SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES ...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S ALONG AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW 100S SPRINKLED ACROSS C LA.
BUT WITH DEWPTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES 102-106. FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SE MAY
KEEP ISO SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE
LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR
MOST AREAS N OF I-10. DEWPTS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER IN THE LOWER/MID 70S DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THUS...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH
108-110 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE AREAS IN THE 109-110 RANGE...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST OF LOWER SE TX AND MOST OF C AND S LA.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE INITIATION OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE
EAST. TIMING ON THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AFTER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
OVER SC LA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO MON...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. BY
TUE & WED...THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER TX/LA...WITH
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RESUMING.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING
ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  99  75  97 /  10  20  20  20
LCH  78  98  78  96 /  10  30  30  20
LFT  78  98  77  96 /  20  40  30  30
BPT  78  98  78  97 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11


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