Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 220232
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
832 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Another update to remove remaining Parishes from the Tornado
Watch. Also, recent sfc obs indicate patchy fog acrs the area and
think this will continue until the passage of the front later
tonight. Otherwise, fcst appears to be on track.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 703 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

UPDATE...
Update mainly to remove Evangeline, Lafayette, Acadia and Saint
Martin Parishes from the Tornado Watch. Strongest storms are now
exiting to the east and northeast of the CWA and will probably be
dropping the watch for the remainder of the area next hour,
barring any additional development.

Given the latest radar and satellite trends, adjusted POPs/Wx
grids slightly to lower POPs acrs the western portions of the
area early this evening. Expect another round of showers and
storms by late evening and overnight and the next shortwave trof
upstream progresses east.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
00z taf issuance.

AVIATION...
Main concern this evening will be MVFR to IFR visibilities and
ceilings. Scattered showers ongoing across Central Louisiana with
the possibility for thunderstorms, some severe. So far, strongest
activity is over NW and SE Louisiana. The next upper level impulse
and frontal passage will move thru the region between 04-09z this
evening and Sunday morning, placing tempo groups for this in all
tafs. Then the strong west to northwest winds, especially after
15z Sunday.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...A tornado watch is now in effect for eastern
portions of the forecast area including Rapides, Evangeline and
Acadia parishes then points east. Watch is in effect until 9 pm.

Deepening low pressure now over the Texas panhandle will continue
to advance east and into the lower Mississippi valley tonight and
early Sunday. This feature will swing a cold front across the
region tonight bringing a few somewhat cooler days to the region.
Until the passage of this boundary, a chance of showers and
thunderstorms will continue, as well as a continuing threat for
a few severe thunderstorms. With strong vertical shear and adequate
instability in place, all severe threats will be possible
including damaging winds and hail, as well as tornadoes.

Rain chances then end in the wake of the incoming cold front as
the area as flow through the column becomes dry west to northwest
between the exiting low and moderate ridge following into the
plains. Sunday looking to be rather windy with aforementioned low
just to our north and associated tight pressure gradient. Have
issued a high wind advisory for the southern portion of the area
and this may have to be expanded northward. High pressure
advancing east of the region Tuesday will set up a moistening and
warming southerly flow ahead of a more robust front on tap to move
through Wednesday.

MARINE...An intense low pressure system will advance through the
lower Mississippi valley tonight and early Sunday...continuing
east into the southeast conus. This system will bring strong and
gusty west to northwest winds over the northwest gulf and adjacent
lakes and bays.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  51  67  42  65 /  50  10   0   0
LCH  54  69  46  68 /  30   0   0   0
LFT  56  69  46  66 /  30  10   0   0
BPT  55  71  47  69 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for LAZ041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ215-216.

GM...Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

     Low Water Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Sunday for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$


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