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000
FXUS64 KLCH 310224
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
924 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE EVENING SOUNDING OVER LAKE CHARLES DEPICTED A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...CAPPED BY A 4400-FOOT FRONTAL INVERSION.

THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE 5000 TO
10000-FOOT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINED THE
SAME. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND 1.63 INCHES (ABOUT 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR LATE JULY).

A STATIONARY FRONT SPOKES FROM A FRONTAL-WAVE LOW VICINITY DALLAS
THROUGH BEAUMONT TO THE MIDPOINT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO (25N 88W.)

FOR TONIGHT...WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR WHERE
RELATIVELY COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

HOWEVER...WEAK ADVECTIVE WARMING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE (CONTINGENT ON THE POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT).

THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO NEAR CALM THROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING AND BECOME SE TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID
DAY PERIOD AT UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  67  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$