Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
222 FXUS64 KLCH 150546 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper ridge will build over the region today, lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend. - A surge of tropical moisture late in the week will likely result in multiple days of heavy rainfall and increased flood potential. - WPC has introduced a Day 4 Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall for parts of Acadiana into SE LA, while the remainder of the region is outlined in a Slight/Marginal Risk on Day 4. - WPC has also outlined a Slight/Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Day 3 and 5 across parts of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Another warm and muggy summer night is ongoing across the northern Gulf Coast, as we become situated under weak high pressure at both the surface and aloft building in from the east. As ridging settles overhead today, it will result in a mainly hot and dry day across the forecast area. While most areas will see no measurable rainfall today, a stray shower or two is not totally out of the question during peak heating hours this afternoon. Best chance for any convection to get going will be across Acadiana, as upper level high pressure continues its westward progression and "loosens" the cap across south-central LA later in the day. Still, main concern today will be the heat, with minimal precip and mostly sunny skies highs should have no problem reaching into the mid-90s this afternoon. Upper ridging will continue to progress westward on Wednesday, while an upper level weakness moves into the northeastern Gulf on its tail. This will bring about a transition period from Wednesday into early Thursday, as we move from a hot and dry airmass to a more moist and unstable one. Wednesday begins with a bit of ridging lingering aloft, keeping convection largely at bay for a bit longer. While isolated diurnal activity is again likely Wed afternoon, it is not expected to be enough to quell temperatures, with highs again reaching into the mid to possibly upper 90s. Wed night into early Thurs, the aforementioned upper level weakness and associated surface low begin to creep closer to south-central LA, with NBM painting steadily increasing POPs from east to west through this period. By Thursday AM, this feature should be near the north-central Gulf Coast, where it could potentially linger for a bit into the long term period. This is of course the same feature that NHC currently gives a 30% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. However, focusing on what this feature could become (messy tropical low, tropical depression, tropical storm, etc) is rather pointless. What is important, is regardless of what this features becomes the chance of our region seeing heavy rainfall, potentially over a couple or several days, is becoming increasingly more likely and this rainfall is expected to begin on Thursday. While things could change, it is likely that the eastern parts of the CWA (particularly lower Acadiana) will see the best chance of rain on Thursday, which coincides with the region that WPC has outlined in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Thurs. In addition, the remainder of our LA parishes have been included in the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Friday into the weekend, the aforementioned tropical low/upper level weakness/significant rain maker, will likely be lingering over the north-central Gulf Coast. The exact placement of where this feature will track remains to be seen however, there continues to be agreement that regardless of track/development the chances for heavy rainfall will pick up as we head into the long term period. NBM paints 60-100% POPs across the entire region both Fri and Sat, indicating the potential for an elongated period of measurable rainfall as this features meanders nearby. In addition, WPC has now outlined Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin in a Day 4 Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall while the remainder of the forecast area is included within the Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) on Friday. On Saturday, roughly the eastern half of the forecast area has been included in the Day 5 Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall, while the western half of the region is included in the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4). On the bright side, this rainfall and associated cloud cover will bring about slightly below average temperatures for Fri and Sat afternoon, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s expected. By Sunday, rain chances taper back to typical summertime numbers, as the tropical low moves away/dissipates. A return of scattered afternoon convection and seasonal temps is expected Sun into Mon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Only change since the previous TAF package was to add TEMPO groups for BR at the Acadiana terminals around sunrise. Otherwise, still expecting light winds and high clouds area-wide today along with a stray shower or two in the afternoon. No concerns expected. 17 && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain light onshore winds and low seas through tomorrow. The forecast through the second half of the week will be highly dependent on the potential tropical development in the eastern Gulf. Regardless of development, much higher precipitation chances and increasing winds and seas are expected Thursday through the end of the week/weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s through the week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 50 - 70% today and tomorrow. Min RH values then surge Thurs into the weekend (50-90%) as a plume of tropical moisture spreads over the area. Mainly dry conditions are expected today and tomorrow, elevated rain chances on tap from Thursday through Saturday as a tropical disturbance begins to influence the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 96 74 97 74 / 10 0 0 10 LCH 93 76 93 76 / 20 0 10 10 LFT 92 76 93 76 / 30 0 30 30 BPT 93 74 93 74 / 20 0 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17