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000
FXUS64 KLCH 301135
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE BRISK
POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS AS SPEEDS SHOULD EXCEED 12 KNOTS MOST OF
THE DAY AT ALL SITES THANKS TO THE COMBO OF A REASONABLE GRADIENT
AND ONGOING CAA. WINDS SHOULD RELAX LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS
FAR AS CLOUD COVER IS CONCERNED...PLENTIFUL UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING BAJA
STORM RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CIRRUS CEILING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND.  COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING.  BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A MUCH COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER. UPPER LOW WILL DIG OVER
BAJA AND HELP TO SPREAD CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA.

WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.  RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE LOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
OVER AREA.  WILL TAPER POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AS SYSTEM CLEARS THE
AREA.

AFTER A STRETCH OF VERY MILD WEATHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY WHEN NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

MARINE...NO CHANGE TO SCA HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING AS WIND CRITERIA
SHOULD BE MET BRIEFLY WITH FROPA.  DECENT GRADIENT WITH EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW
LATE IN WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCA MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS GFS AND
ECMWF HINT AT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  42  61  53  66 /   0   0  20  40  60
KBPT  59  44  60  54  66 /   0   0  20  50  70
KAEX  58  37  60  50  63 /   0   0  10  50  70
KLFT  60  41  63  54  68 /   0   0  10  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

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&&

$$