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000
FXUS64 KLCH 110052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
752 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE GULF EASTERLIES EXTENDS FROM MARSH
ISLAND TO OFFSHORE LAGUNA MADRE. INCOMING CAMPECHE AIR GENTLY
ASCENDS UPON ENCOUNTERING THE TROUGH.

A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS...ENTERING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MIDMORNING TUESDAY. ITS ATTENDANT PVA LIFT
WILL PHASE IN WITH THE UPSLIDING LIFT ATTENDING THE INVERTED
TROUGH. RAIN WILL EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AND
UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PAC NW.

AT THE SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

AFTER CONTENDING WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF SUN
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING OFF A
LITTLE TO THE EAST INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. WITH SHELF WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S...AREAS OF SEA FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS AIR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS BEGINS TO
ADVECT ATOP IT. LATEST HRRR AND RUC FCSTS INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF CAMERON...THEN DEVELOPING
FARTHER NORTH/INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DREW IN AREAS OF
FOG THAT GENERALLY MATCHES THIS EVOLUTION...BUT AM A LITTLE
HESITANT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WOULD PREFER TO LET
THE EVENING CREW SEE HOW THE SITUATION BEGINS TO EVOLVE.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
ASSOCIATED N-S LOW PRESSURE TROF. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO BE PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...AND SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
RETAINED IN THESE AREAS. RAINFALL IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST AND PERHAPS EVEN SPREAD FARTHER EAST AMID WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SW.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS LEAD SYSTEM...A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BRING AN END TO ANY SEA
FOG...AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE HAVING BEEN SHUNTED EASTWARD
BY THE LEAD SYSTEM...THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY ONE. AMID
BRISK NORTH WINDS...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST AS THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH SETTLES SOUTH
INTO TEXAS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE...WITH A WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...AND GENERALLY A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LATEST WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED.

13

MARINE...
WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND
THIS EVENING...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD INTO SABINE AND CALCASIEU
LAKES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  71  57  65  40 /  50  50  10  10  10
KBPT  56  74  57  66  40 /  60  40  10  10  10
KAEX  55  74  56  62  35 /  20  40  10  10  10
KLFT  58  70  57  66  39 /  40  80  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$