Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 240222
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
922 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...
A cold front was located from Alexandria to Beaumont and continued
to move southeast across our area. Recent activity along the
frontal boundary appeared to be weakening with the loss of
daytime heating. Therefore...generally just expecting showers and
a few ordinary thunderstorms to mainly continue along and ahead
of the line as it continues to move through the area. Mostly
showers still possible just a short distance behind the front
where residual moisture continues. The current forecast looks to
be on track so no immediate changes anticipated to current
forecast package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
For the 24/00Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
An upper level disturbance extending down from the Plains across
central Texas will move east tonight and quickly push a cold front
across the forecast area during the evening hours. Convection will
develop out ahead of the front, then quickly end behind the front.
Timing of the convection used on current radar trend and blend of
short term guidance. This would put first wave of convection
around KAEX by 24/01Z, KBPT by 24/02Z, KLCH by 24/03Z, and the
KLFT/KARA sites between 24/04Z and 24/05Z. Thunderstorm activity
could bring some gusty winds and reduced visibilities from heavy
rainfall. VFR conditions will develop behind the front and
continue into Wednesday.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
Texarkana southwest to Austin. Satellite imagery shows
thunderstorms already developing along the cold front as it
progresses to the southeast. The front will progress across the
CWA late this evening through the morning tomorrow with showers
and thunderstorms likely. Any of the stronger storms tonight could
be capable of some gusty winds and hail. The front and any
associated precipitation should clear the region by tomorrow
morning.

High pressure will build over the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in drier and cooler conditions. Calm winds and
clear skies Wednesday night will be ideal for radiational cooling
which should allow temperatures to drop down into the low 50s
Thursday morning. The area of high pressure will shift to the east
on Thursday resulting in increasing temperatures and humidity
through the weekend. An upper level trough and associated surface
low pressure will bring the next chance for rain from late Sunday
night through the day on Monday.

MARINE...
A cold front will move across the coastal waters late this evening
through the morning on Wednesday. This will result in a chance of
showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight. Northwest winds will
increase behind the front resulting in Small Craft Advisory
conditions for the eastern portions of the coastal waters through
Wednesday afternoon. Winds and seas are expected to decrease
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning as high pressure
builds over the region. Onshore flow is expected to redevelop and
increase through the day on Thursday and could potentially result
in Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  58  77  53  87 /  70  10   0   0
LCH  61  79  58  86 /  50  10   0   0
LFT  64  78  58  86 /  60  10   0   0
BPT  59  81  60  86 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ435-452-455-
     472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through Wednesday afternoon for
     GMZ430-432-450-470.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...06


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