Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 212331
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE HEAT.
GUIDANCE DOES NOW INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF COOLER...AT LEAST
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND A RETURN TO AT LEAST SPOTTY RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY...BUT A STRONG RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF WHERE
WE WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO OF WARMING
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S. DEW
POINTS HAVE NOT MIXED OUT QUITE AS MUCH TODAY AS YESTERDAY...SO
HEAT INDICES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT STILL BELOW OUR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN AND OR MOVE THESE
STRONG RIDGES EAST FASTER THAN WHAT USUALLY OCCURS...SO WILL RELY
HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWER
MODEL...SO WILL FAVOR ITS SOLUTION FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY AND OR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAYS WITH THE WARMEST AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 99 DEGREES. RESULTING
HEAT INDICES WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY DEW POINTS AND THE
AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE SEE EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED...BUT WILL BE ISSUED ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS.

AS MENTIONED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...GUIDANCE INDICATES A
BETTER CHANCE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT NEXT WEEK...AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES. BY NEXT THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND 4-5
DEGREES COOLER APPROACHING NORMAL READINGS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
FOG IS EXPECTED DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE KMKL AND KTUP AREAS WHICH
WOULD BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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