Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 301129
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR MEM. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE KEEPING
CLOSE WATCH. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH NEAR OR BEFORE 14Z. SOME
LOWER CIGS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT TUP THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM SSE BETWEEN 5 AND
10 MPH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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