Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 092119
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY...LEAVING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AREA TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 09/12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HINT AT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHWEST TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY
EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS EDGED CLOSER
TO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A LESS DIRECT AND LASTING INTRUSION
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC PRESSURE RIDGE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL AID LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AN
INVERTED PRESSURE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE TROF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RETURN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON. KMKL
CURRENTLY AT MVFR AND THESE CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES WITH REDUCED CIGS. TEMPO INCLUDED
AT KMKL FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET ALONG WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.