Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 192334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
634 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017


Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

A warm but pleasant afternoon is ongoing around the region.
Latest GOES-16 visible imagery depicts a nice cumulus field over
the area, while surface obs detail temperatures in the lower 90s.
Heat indices have climbed north of 100 degrees for several locales
this afternoon as well. High pressure is dominating conditions at
the surface, while a ridge builds in aloft.

Temperatures will again be warm on Sunday with the ridge
continuing to build from the southwest. Temperatures will be in
the low to mid 90s, with heat indices north of 100 degrees again,
particularly for the southwestern half of the FA. Some weak
impulses around the periphery of this feature could induce some
diurnal convection tomorrow, mainly across the western half of the
FA. The ridge quickly progresses east by Monday, with
southwesterly flow aloft setting up over the Mid-South as a
result. Moisture advection will be enhanced as a result of this
mixed with the region being located between a surface high to the
east and a developing low to the west. This will provide the best
chances for showers and thunderstorms across western counties on
Monday afternoon. Cloud cover should not inhibit eclipse viewing
too much on Monday, the best chance for clouds again being across
the western portions of the FA. Some cirrus clouds will be
possible with the presence of upper level moisture, but skies
should remain at best partly cloudy for the duration of the solar
eclipse. Despite the few hours of reduced sunlight, highs should
still reach lower 90s on Monday.

Clouds and precipitation chances increase on Tuesday as a cold
front begins to approach the region from the northwest. This will
also result in highs being a degree or so cooler on Tuesday. The
best chance for showers and thunderstorms of the next week comes
on Wednesday as the front moves through the region. The front will
have the support of a potent upper longwave trough, and thus
current confidence in showers and storms Tuesday night into
Wednesday is high. The front will also be effective in lowering
temperatures as a cool and dry air mass builds quickly into the
region by Thursday. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s on
Thursday, and continue to be several degrees cooler than average
to end the week as surface high pressure keeps conditions dry.



.AVIATION.../00z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period with the
exception of vsby reductions in fog late tonight. Isolated
convection will be possible this evening and again Sunday
afternoon near KJBR. Winds should remain light and below any
critical thresholds through the forecast period at all terminals.




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