Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 260239
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
839 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO FINE-TUNE POPS AND ALSO BETTER TIME THE
EXIT OF PRECIP TONIGHT. ELECTED TO ADD LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE CLOSER TO THE VORT MAX ROTATING SOUTHEAST. A
BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR REMNANT SHOWERS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE (VERY) COLD POCKET NEAR 500 MB. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH A WARM-UP SCHEDULED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
AFTERNOON PLACE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
2 PM CST...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND/AFTER 06Z...AND HAVE
LEFT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/S FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE.

SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END
FOR NOW.

CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS OVER MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. A TRANSITION TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE
REGION.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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