Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 221734 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1134 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017
Updated for 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/
At 10AM, temperatures are in the 50s areawide under overcast skies
and occasional rain showers. A swath of light to moderate rain is
slowly surging northward from north Mississippi and southeast
Arkansas associated with a warm front and upper level low. These
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are expected to push
north this afternoon across the rest of the Mid-South, before a
cold front sweeps eastward by late afternoon. Gradient winds will
intensify behind the front, with sustained winds 20 to 25 MPH and
gusts to around 35 MPH.
Went ahead and reduced thunderstorm chances across the area as
instability will remain low and mostly elevated. Also pushed
temperatures down a little bit, as temperatures will remain nearly
steady the rest of the day due to significant cloud cover. The
rest of the forecast is in good shape with no further changes
needed at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/
The first wave of storms moved into the Mid-South late in the
evening but has limped slowly northeast across the CWA over the
past few hours. The remaining convection is quite disorganized and
will continue to decay through the early morning hours. The main
upper-level cyclone is still to our west of north TX and will move
east throughout the day. Latest progs maintain a course well south
of I-40, keeping the Mid-South on the northern periphery of the
circulation. Cooler temperatures aloft will maintain the potential
for thunderstorms today, although relatively cool surface
temperatures will hamper instability. Thus, the potential for even
strong storms is pretty low. Coverage is expected to be relatively
widespread, with rainfall totals averaging around 1/2" through
As the upper low pulls off to the east tonight, rain chances will
taper off from west to east and should be clear of the CWA by 12z
Monday. Temperatures today will range from the upper 50s across
northeast AR to the low/mid 60s over northeast MS. A cold front
will move into the area in the wake of the attendant surface low
this afternoon, shifting winds around from the west and eventually
from the north this evening. Winds will increase to 15-25 mph,
gusting to 35 mph at times this evening. A Wind Advisory will
likely be needed to account for these gusty winds.
Cooler and drier weather is anticipated on Monday, with
temperatures peaking around 50 degrees. We anticipate a fair
amount of cloud cover, mainly early in the day, but skies are
expected to be mostly clear by evening. Light winds, clear skies,
and dry air will promote radiational cooling Monday night,
allowing temperatures to fall into the low/mid 30s by sunrise
Tuesday. A few areas may dip into the upper 20s briefly.
Ridging aloft is expected on Tuesday as the next trough digs over
the western CONUS. Southerly winds will increase as a surface low
deepens in the Central Plains. The 850mb thermal ridge will shift
over the region as strong southwesterly winds around 50 kts (also
at 850 mb) overspread the area. Wind speeds were increased to
15-20 mph with room to increase further with later forecasts.
Temperatures will also climb, with highs in the 60s across much of
The aforementioned Central Plains surface cyclone will move east
into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A trailing cold front will move
across the Mid-South during the day, shifting winds from the west.
There is a slight chance of a few showers along and east of this
boundary. However, as has been the case the past few days, it
still appears that the greatest rain chances will be east of the
CWA. Low PoPs were carried Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly
over the southeast quadrant of the forecast area. Cooler
temperatures will advect into the area to round out the work week.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will primarily be in the 40s, with
overnight lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
The cooler air will persist through the weekend as a reinforcing
cold front arrives early Saturday. Moisture associated with this
system will be somewhat scant. Thus, no rain chances were included
in the forecast Thursday-Saturday.
Showers will prevail through late afternoon, along the northern
periphery of an upper low tracking east-southeast through central
MS. Few changes were made for the 18Z TAFs, with MVFR expected to
Surface pressure gradient will increase this evening, behind the
departing upper low. A few early overnight breaks in the post
frontal stratus are likely, followed by another MVFR stratus deck
dropping southeast off the Ozark Plateau toward sunrise Monday.
AR...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Monday for
MO...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Monday for
MS...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Monday for
TN...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Monday for