Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 242328
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/
The mid-level anticyclone is firmly entrenched over the southeast
CONUS this afternoon. Despite a modest diurnal Cu field,
temperatures have warmed into the low/mid 90s across the Mid-
South. Humid conditions have pushed heat indices into the 100-105
degree range. A few locations have briefly exceeded 105 degrees.
Isolated showers have developed over northeast MS the past few
hours, but this convection has been short-lived and this trend
will hold through the remainder of the afternoon. Once diurnal
heating ceases, precip chances will wane and skies will become
mostly clear. Expect overnight lows similar to what we experienced
this morning, with temperatures generally in the low/mid 70s.
Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today`s, with highs in
the low/mid 90s. Heat indices will again approach 105 degrees,
mainly across the Delta Region to the south and west of Memphis. A
Heat Advisory may be needed eventually, but the relatively small
area and marginal indices will preclude issuance at this time.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated again
tomorrow, but like today, the subsidence associated with the
upper-level ridge will limit coverage.
On Friday, a weak cold front will approach the northern reaches of
the CWA. While this boundary is expected to remain north of the
Mid-South, surface winds are forecast to back to the east. Rain
chances will increase as precipitable water values increase to
more than 2". This increase in moisture should prevent temps from
warming quite as much (still upper 80s and lower 90s), but the
humidity will persist, keeping heat indices on the high side. A
pattern conducive for scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms
will continue through the weekend, but the lack of a defined
forcing mechanism will keep PoPs in the 30-40% range.
As we move into early next week, the forecast will rely
significantly on the evolution and track of the tropical wave
located near Puerto Rico. The guidance envelope is quite large,
ranging from a tropical system in the Gulf to as far east as the
Bahamas. Given the uncertainty associated with this system, the
forecast for early next week is a combination of climatology and
persistence. Temperatures are near to slightly above normal, with
20-30% PoPs each afternoon. Will continue to monitor this wave
over the coming days.
00Z TAF Cycle
VFR conditions will continue through much of the forecast period.
Some fog is possible in the KMKL area overnight. Winds will be
mainly from the south at around 5 knots.