Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 241930
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Skies are partly sunny across a majority of the midsouth with
convection becoming more scattered. Temperatures have been cooler
again today thanks to a weak MCV still churning right over Shelby
County. Only a couple locations across the area have reached the
105F heat index...otherwise a slight break from the high heat
continues. Midlevel convergence with this feature will help
sustain convection through tonight...with lingering cloud cover
keeping temperatures a degree or two warmer.

Monday through Wednesday...short term models this period show a
weak shear axis over the Ozarks/Midsouth between two upper high
centers in the east and west...while on the surface a weak cold
front will drop south into lower Ohio Valley. These features will
continue to keep the area somewhat unsettled. A few strong storms
will be possible during the afternoon/early evening...with gusty
winds and localized flash flooding. Temperatures will generally
run in the 90-95F range with heat indices about ten degrees
warmer.

Thursday through next Weekend...not much change to the current
forecast this period. Long range models are in strong agreement
that better amplitude troughing will develop over the Mississippi
Valley between the distinct high centers. This will reinforce the
aforementioned front...pushing it into the northern Midsouth
counties. Rain chances will increase along and north of
Interstate Forty...along with a potential threat for a few severe
storms. Temperatures will range from the mid 80s to the low
90s...with lows staying in the 70s.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18z TAF Set

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. The
exception will be in thunderstorms where lower cigs and vsbys will
be possible. Highest storm coverage appears to exist this
afternoon over the east with tempos included at KMKL and KTUP.
Elsewhere more isolated coverage is anticipated with VCTS at KMEM
and KJBR today. Winds should remain light from the south
southwest.

Tonight...convection should diminish across the east but may
continue in an isolated fashion at KMEM and KJBR in closest
proximity to lingering MCV. This continues into Monday morning at
KMEM and KJBR...but dry conditions expected at KMKL and KTUP.
Winds remain light tonight and Monday morning.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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