Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 280330
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1030 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
to move west to exit across the northern half of Oklahoma early
Friday morning. Low clouds are expected to move northward from
Texas into central Oklahoma by sunrise and last through midday
Friday in many areas. By afternoon, VFR conditions are expected.
After 290000 a slowly-moving front from southwest to northeast
Oklahoma will become a focus for rain and thunderstorm development
through the evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 923 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

UPDATE...
Main update this evening was to POPs.

DISCUSSION...
The current radar trends show expansion of the showers in the
southern Texas panhandle and the Texas South Plains moving east.
With this continued development and the HRRR/RAP signals of
persistence of showers/storms this evening, we have both
increased POPs and expanded them in duration and time overnight as
it looks like a good bet that the showers will continue after
midnight and later into the morning. At the moment, it looks like
the showers will still move out by 12Z, so this will still
primarily be a first period event. Made only minor tweaks to other
fields this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 708 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
to move west to east across the northern half of Oklahoma this
evening. Early Friday morning, low clouds are expected to move
northward from Texas into central Oklahoma and last through midday
Friday in many areas. By afternoon, VFR conditions are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper-level disturbance tracking across the central Plains will
help generate scattered showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms,
over parts of Oklahoma this evening.

Of much greater importance is the next storm system that will
begin to affect Oklahoma and north Texas on Friday, mainly during
the evening. Previous discussions have gone into the fine details
of the meteorological situation and model output regarding Friday
evening`s severe weather and flooding potential...and there is
very little change with this forecast. The same models are still
showing the same variations from each other.

Models show a very sharp cold front Saturday, and this is
difficult to impossible to mimic in the gridded forecast. The NAM
suggests, for example, that temperatures in the 60s degrees F will
lie in a very thin strip along I-44 at midday Saturday.

We have left the existing Flood Watch unchanged, but could see
adding a few counties along the edges in a later forecast update
if we see a better trending of the models in one direction or the
other.

As this system begins to depart to the northeast, some rather
cold air will be pulled into far northwest Oklahoma. Current model
forecasts indicate that snow, or rain mixed with snow, will be a
definite possibility early Sunday. Accumulation of significance is
not expected, and any snow that might accumulate will likely melt
very quickly with soil temperatures being well above freezing.

Another system will bring another chance of showers and
thunderstorms about midweek, much like today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  77  56  61 /  40   0  80  90
Hobart OK         53  78  52  56 /  40   0  70  70
Wichita Falls TX  61  84  60  66 /  20  10  70  80
Gage OK           47  73  44  47 /  30  10  70  70
Ponca City OK     51  74  51  56 /  50  10  80  90
Durant OK         60  81  69  76 /  10  20  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
     OKZ025-026-028>032-040>043-047-048.

TX...None.
&&

$$

25/09/09


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