Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 180513
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1113 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The January 18-19, 2018 06 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities will continue through the
TAF period.

Southerly winds are expected to veer to the south-southwest and
become gusty by this afternoon before weakening and backing
toward the south during the evening hours.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The January 18-19, 2018 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

AVIATION...
Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities will continue through the
TAF period.

Southerly winds are expected to veer to the south-southwest and
become gusty by tomorrow afternoon.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Gradual warm up into the weekend, windy and dry conditions with
elevated fire weather concerns in far western Oklahoma and rain
chances on Sunday for portions of the area are primary forecast
concerns.

It remains "brisk" out there, with the broad surface high remaining
well in place across the region, from the Mid-Mississippi valley
across the Ozark plateau and to the southwest towards the Edwards
Plateau and Big Bend. The 500mb trough will continue its eastward
advance towards the Mid-Atlantic. Surface winds have already shifted
out of the south across Oklahoma, this afternoon. This will start
our gradual warming trend as an open 500mb trough digs across the
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, ahead of brief, but stout positively
tilted ridging into Friday. Lows overnight will be generally in the
20s, with wind chills in the single digits, but highs will bounce
back, on Thursday, in the mid to upper 40s. Friday, winds will
increase, slightly ahead of an approaching trough, well to the west,
still. Given persistent dry conditions, some elevated fire weather
concerns will exist through he afternoon hours. By Saturday, we`ll
see above average temperatures, with highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s on Saturday across the area. Additionally, surface dew points
will be on a steady increase, therefore, fire weather concerns will
lessen.

As for the weekend, timing remains a bit off between mid-range
solutions from the GFS and ECMWF. However, a strong trough will
cross the Four Corners on Saturday, with increasing warm air
advection ahead of the associated cold front/surface trough.
Boundary layer moisture will increase gradually, with dew points
reaching the low to mid 50s across south central/southeastern
Oklahoma by Sunday. Rain chances will gradually increase across
eastern Oklahoma through Sunday, with isolated thunder possible
through the afternoon. Chances will end as the trough exits eastward
overnight into Monday Morning.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  19  47  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         18  49  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  19  49  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           20  53  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     17  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         18  44  27  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/23/10



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