Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 191024
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
524 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will still apply through the forecast period. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible near a few of the terminals mainly
this afternoon (PNC, OKC, OUN, & SPS) but confidence is too low to
mention any TS in TAFs at this time. Expect cumulus to develop
over this terminals as well. Otherwise, a few mid to high clouds
are expected. South to southwest winds around 10 kt will be
predominant.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A couple of showers and storms have developed across SE KS early
this morning ahead of a mid level speed max/subtle shortwave trough.
Went ahead and put some SChc PoPs in for the NE but definitely do
not expect widespread convection, and most should shift eastward as
the jet max does the same. Later this afternoon, it will be
difficult to determine where diurnal showers and storms develop.
Best chances appear to be SW within and just north of mid level
moisture plume, and NE within subtle WAA. A few showers and storms
may maintain across the SE overnight. Generally, it will be hot and
sticky today with heat indices exceeding 105 across central OK. A
heat advisory has been issued.

Another hot day is expected tomorrow but headlines shouldn`t be
needed as max heat index values remain below 105. Isolated to
widely scattered PoPs are expected within deeper moisture plume
across the NW/W Sun on the western periphery of the ridge. This
trend will continue Mon, with some increase in coverage, as a mid
level shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies towards the
central plains. The highest precip chances still appear to arrive
mid week with an unseasonably stout cold front. There are still
uncertainties with regards to timing. The ECMWF is far more
aggressive since it depicts a deeper trough impacting the upper
midwest. Regardless, cooler temps will arrive by Wed and persist
through the weekend as a ~1022 sfc high settles in over the
midwest!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
Hobart OK         99  76  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  99  76  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           98  72  95  72 /  10  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     98  75  97  74 /  20  10  10  10
Durant OK         96  75  95  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>026-028>032-040-042-043-
     048.

TX...None.
&&

$$

23/03/03



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