Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 061124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
624 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF KHBR-KSWO
THROUGH 17Z.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT MOST SITES
13-16Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND ISO-NUM TSRA
TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 21Z. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA. ADDED SOME VCTS/TSRA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY RECEIVING MUCH MORE. IMPRESSED WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR...COMBINED WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. EXACT AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THUS WENT WITH LARGE AREA FOR THE
WATCH.

THROUGH 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WARM...BREEZY...AND MUGGY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. A STORM OR TWO MAY FORM NEAR ATOKA AND DURANT COUNTIES
WHERE CAPPING MAY BE WEAKER. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE HIGHS.

BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A LINE NEAR THE FRONT IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD DUE TO HIGH DCAPE
VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SEVERE FROM BEING WIDESPREAD OR HIGH END. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE GREATER HAZARD WITH RAINFALL RATES PERHAPS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES PER HOUR. STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS AND PRODUCE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS RUNS
VERIFY.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...STORMS MAY WEAKEN AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH...BUT STILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. NOT SURE IF STORMS WILL REACH THE I-40 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...THOUGH BELIEVE THE RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET SOUTH OF I-40.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TO ENHANCE
LIFT WEST TO EAST...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL. MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
RESULT NEAR THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD HAVE A LOW
POTENTIAL OF BEING STRONG OR SEVERE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
REGARDLESS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLOODING. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE. THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY BE GREATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN MAY LINGER MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS
EAST OF I-35. KEPT RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH CAPPING WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL
OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY OCCUR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  70  78  63 /  10  60  80  70
HOBART OK         95  68  75  62 /  20  80  80  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  75  83  64 /  10  40  70  70
GAGE OK           90  61  72  59 /  70  90  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     92  64  76  63 /  30  80  60  70
DURANT OK         91  74  87  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ005>042-044>046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/17/17



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