Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 240446 AAC
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1146 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms have all dissipated or moved out of
West Central Texas, and no additional convection is expected
overnight. High cloud coverage will decrease overnight, while low
cloud development occurs late tonight and early Thursday morning
across southern and eastern parts of West Central Texas. Carrying
MVFR cloud groups at KSOA, KBBD and KJCT. Any residual low clouds
should break up quickly by by mid-late morning, as a weak cold
front pushes south and enters the area. North winds 10-15 KT will
follow the frontal passage, with gusts 20-25 KT possible through
early afternoon at KABI and KSJT. North winds will diminish Friday
evening and become light.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
Previously updated the forecast to remove PoPs tonight for our
central and southern counties. Latest radar imagery shows a
decreasing trend with the coverage and intensity of convection in
the northern and eastern Big Country. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will expire at 11 PM, and will be dropping the PoPs across most if
not all of the area along/north of Interstate 20. The rest of the
forecast looks on track and no other changes planned at this time.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Widely scattered thunderstorms will move northeast across northern
and western parts of West Central Texas this evening and early
tonight. Given recent radar trends and with the low coverage, not
initially carrying TSRA at any of the TAF sites. The KABI and KSJT
sites are in closer proximity to these storms. Will closely monitor
and amend as needed. Strong, gusty winds and hail are possible with
some of the storms. Expect the storms to dissipate by 06Z. Extensive
middle to high cloud coverage this evening will decrease overnight,
with low cloud development expected through early morning across
southern and eastern parts of West Central Texas. Carrying MVFR
cloud groups at KSOA, KBBD and KJCT. Any residual low clouds should
break up quickly by mid-late morning, as a weak cold front pushes
south and enters the area. North winds 10-15 KT will follow the
frontal passage, with gusts over 20 KT possible for a few hours at
KABI and KSJT.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
Have updated zone forecast package to reflect Severe Thunderstorm
Watch now in effect until 11PM CDT this evening. This watch includes
all of the Big Country.

&

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms still look possible tonight, but its been
working against a few negatives as well. Weak lead shortwave is
rotating across West Central Texas this afternoon, producing a few
weak showers across the area. This wave will continue to the
northeast and not be much of a factor for this afternoon, other than
across the northern and northeast Big Country north of Abilene. To
the west, extensive high clouds are now covering the dryline, which
has inhibited mixing so far and allowed only weak convergence to
develop so far. This area also is seeing a bit of subsidence from
the initial shortwave.

First, areas north of I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene ahead of the
shortwave will continue to see at least a few showers and storms
through the remainder of the afternoon. We will also look start
looking out to the west for more, probably more intense, development

Second, Models say that the high clouds will thin and push east, and
allow the dryline to sharpen and move east of a Lubbock to Midland
line before sunset. As this happens, then development of storms is
possible along or very near the western borders of the Concho Valley
and Big Country, roughly from Sweetwater to Sterling City, with the
activity pushing east and northeast through the evening hours. This
would place an area north of a San Angelo to Abilene line with the
best rain chances, which is already pretty well covered in the
forecast. Will leave these pops alone for now, and monitor the
development of the high clouds and the dryline. If storms can
develop, shear and instability suggest that severe will be possible.
High LCL`s make for a tough situation for tornadoes,  but very large
hail and damaging winds certainly possible.

Stronger upper level wave, noted on water vapor imagery moving into
Colorado and New Mexico this afternoon, will push east into the
plains early Thursday. This will allow the dryline and then a cold
front to push through West Central Texas before noon. Not much
colder air behind the front, but it will be drier with dewpoints
falling into the 30s and 40s.

7

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)

By Thursday night the upper trough axis will be over the Mississippi
valley with weak upper ridging building over the forecast area. A
weak cold frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will wash
out on Thursday night with weak surface winds swinging back out of
the south. Friday morning lows will range from the mid 50s over the
Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

The next upper level system that will affect the forecast area will
close off over southern Nevada by Saturday morning and will move
over the four corners area by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this next
system a dryline will push east and become stationary along our
western CWA border Saturday afternoon. With afternoon highs warming
into the upper 90s Saturday afternoon and given some weak
convergence along the dryline, there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily along our western counties Saturday
afternoon.

As the upper level system digs southeast toward the northern Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening, the dryline will initially retreat
westward toward the New Mexico border. Then, as the upper level
system lifts toward the Southern Plains, the dryline will push
eastward, aided by a Pacific front, through the forecast area as a
squall line Saturday evening through Saturday night. Our best chance
of meaningful rainfall will be associated with this squall line.
There is a slight chance of strong and possibly severe storms
developing along the squall line as it move east through the area.
The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and deadly
lightning. Thunderstorm activity should be east of the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 60s with
afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 80s. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the the
mid to upper 50s..

The remainder of the week will be dry and a little cooler as upper
level ridging builds over the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
mid 70s to around 80 and on Wednesday in the mid to the upper 70s,
Morning lows on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  58  92  66 /  10   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  62  86  59  92  66 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  66  88  62  88  66 /   5  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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