Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 262026
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
326 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Breezy day across West Central Texas, with winds gusting over 30 mph
areawide. Initial cold front moved through the area this morning,
shifting winds around to the west and northwest. Not much of a
temperature change however with readings still in the 70s and 80s. A
second reinforcing front is pushing south through the area this
afternoon, with readings in the 60s across the Big Country and
northern Heartland.

Surface high will shift very quickly across West Central Texas
tonight, allowing winds to become light and then begin to increase
out of the south by morning. This will also keep temperatures from
getting the chance to bottom out, so overnight lows tonight will be
much cooler but not as cold as they might be farther east under the
surface high itself. Lows will drop into the 40s and lower 50s.

Gusty south winds on Thursday, with tight pressure gradient
developing once again. South winds will gust over 30 mph and help
afternoon temperatures rebound back into the upper 80s and lower 90s.


.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast on Friday across much of
West Central Texas.  A dry line will move into our far eastern
counties, with southwest winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph. In
addition, a weak cold front will move into the northern Big Country.
Behind the front, highs will mainly be in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Elsewhere, expect highs in the low to mid 90s, with a few
locations possibly approaching the upper 90s. The aforementioned
dryline will retreat west into our western counties Friday
night/Saturday morning, while an upper level low approaches the
Southern Plains. The GFS continues to show isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing along the dryline, then moving
east across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. The
NAM/ECMWF continue to be drier, so for now, PoPs were kept in the 20
to 30 percent range, given the continued uncertainty.

On Saturday, the previously mentioned upper level low will swing
across the Southern Plains, sending a cold front through the forecast
area late Saturday into Sunday morning. Somewhat limited moisture
will be available, although isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with the front. The best rain chances
look to remain across our far southeast counties, where the best
moisture will reside. Much cooler temperatures are forecast on
Sunday with highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A slow warm up will ensue for the first part of the work week, with
highs back into the 80s Monday, then into the upper 80s to lower 90s
on Tuesday. The next upper level trough will then approach the
Plains on Wednesday, sending the next cold front into the forecast
area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near critical fire weather conditions will continue this afternoon,
mainly along the I-10 corridor where temperatures are warmest and
humidity values are lowest. After e brief lull during the morning,
near critical conditions will return Thursday afternoon as strong
south winds return. Air mass will remain very dry and humidity
values will again be near or below 20%. In both cases, vegetation
has greened up quite a bit and ERC values remain pretty close to
seasonal normals. This should mitigate the threat for now, but
rainfall will be needed soon or vegetation will begin to dry out
once more. The Rangeland Fire Danger statement will continue this
afternoon and will likely be needed again on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  90  65  91 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  52  93  67  97 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  49  88  66  95 /   0   0   0   5
Brownwood  46  87  65  92 /   0   0   0  20
Sweetwater  52  90  62  90 /   0   0   0   5
Ozona       52  90  64  94 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07/Daniels



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