Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 202256
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
554 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus indicated to again develop in the Hill Country and
Lower Rio Grande Valley and move into the I-10 corridor toward
daybreak. The stratus should affect Sonora and Junction through late
morning, but should be brief, if it occurs, at San Angelo and Brady.
Lee trough will again bring south wind gusts to 26 KTS at KABI and
KSJT mid morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The first dry day in several days across West Central Texas, with
showers and storms to the west across the Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin. Given the northeast movement of the storms, cant rule out
that a stray storm may wander into the western tip of Crockett
County and have added a mention of isolated storms out there for a
few hours tonight. Elsewhere, will keep the forecast dry for now.

Stratus made a run into the Northern Edwards Plateau this morning,
with models suggesting an even bigger area Thursday morning.
Increased cloud cover across the I-10 corridor from Ozona to
Junction for late tonight and early tomorrow. Otherwise, after days
of poor model performance for temperatures because of the convection
in the area, models seem to be in the ballpark today. A slight
temperature climb for Thursday is forecasted and that seems
reasonable. Not deviating too much from guidance.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

A benign weather pattern is forecast through early next week for
West Central Texas. An upper level ridge will remain centered across
the lower Mississippi Valley through early next week, with its
influence extending west into much of Texas. Temperatures will
remain near to slightly above normal through the period, with the
hottest temperatures across the eastern counties, closest to the
upper level ridge. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 90s,
with overnight lows in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop each afternoon along the periphery of the ridge,
mainly across West Texas and eastern New Mexico. At this time, the
influence of the ridge is forecast to dominate our weather, with any
convection remaining to our west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  97  72  95  72 /   5   0   5   0   0
San Angelo  74  95  72  96  71 /   5   0   5   0   0
Junction  74  94  74  95  71 /   5   5   0   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04






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