Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 240459
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1158 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Look for patchy fog to create MVFR visibility during the next 6
hours. Clear skies and surface dew point depressions of only a few
degrees will allow radiational fog to develop. Sonora is already
indicating 5SM. Plan for VFR conditions to again dominate by 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Areas of patchy fog will develop across our southern terminals
overnight, resulting in MVFR visibilities. This fog may attempt to
make it into KSJT as well; but, for now it was left out of the TAF
at that location. Any fog will dissipate by 14z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Low clouds developed over the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor this
morning and have been slow to erode. A diurnal Cu field has
developed where skies have been clear and we`ve seen a few light
showers trying to develop over the northwest Hill Country near San
Saba. The mid-level trough axis is crossing the area this afternoon,
and should be to our east by this evening. This will bring rain
chances to an end and should result in mostly clear skies overnight.
The main caveat to the sky forecast is that light winds, clear
skies, and low-level moisture will allow temps to fall to near the
dewpoint, potentially creating patchy fog late tonight and early
Friday. This may morph into a low cloud deck by sunrise, mainly over
the west. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area tonight, with some low-lying areas and river
valleys in the lower 50s.

If any low clouds develop late tonight, they should erode by midday.
Warm and dry conditions are expected during the afternoon with south
winds generally under 10 mph. Afternoon highs are forecast to warm
into the mid 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

An upper level high will shift east across Texas Friday night and
Saturday. This high will be suppressed south into the Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday, as a broad upper trough moves from the northwestern part
of the country east to the northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions
are expected for our area Saturday through Monday, with highs
well-above normal for this point in October. South winds will
increase, especially Sunday into Monday with lee side surface trough
development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the
developments during the early to middle part of next week. The
aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending
a cold front south across the northern third of our area by 12Z
Tuesday. The front is progged to move south at a slower pace on
Tuesday, and should be just south of the Interstate 10 corridor
by evening.

The upper trough will lift into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, while
a weaker shortwave move east across the Southwestern states. The
front should stall just south of our area Tuesday night. With the
incoming shortwave and moisture lifting up and over the stalled
frontal boundary, the setup favors the possibility of elevated
convection across much of the southern half of our area. Some of the
GFS ensemble members show QPF, along with its 12Z operational run
and that of the 12Z ECMWF. With these indications, have added slight
chance PoPs for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The shortwave trough
should move east across our area Wednesday night, ending rain
chances. Will monitor subsequent model data and may need to adjust
or extend PoPs into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler in
the wake of the frontal passage, with increased cloud cover and the
possibility for precipitation. The models indicate another cold
frontal passage possibility for Day 7 (next Thursday).

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  85  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  56  86  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  53  86  54  86  55 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/14/60/Huber







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