Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 220420
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with generally light easterly winds will
continue at all terminals through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

.UPDATE...
Reduced POPs for the rest of tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 830 PM, a weak cold front continues to move slowly south
across north Texas this evening. The front will enter Haskell
and Throckmorton counties by 10 PM and continue south overnight,
reaching the southern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland
by daybreak. Lift along the front will be weak and models show
very little precipitation along the front as it continues south
overnight. Reduced POPs to slight chance across northern and
western sections this update, with the exception of Crockett
county where POPs were kept at 30 percent. Will only mention
isolated thunder overnight, as instability will be very weak.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with generally light southeasterly winds will
continue at all terminals through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

For the next 24 hours, the forecast for West Central Texas
remains essentially unchanged. A loop of the latest water vapor
imagery indicates mid- and upper-level moisture continuing to
stream into Texas from the northwest. Fortunately for much of West
Texas, what remains of Tropical Storm Polo, off the southwestern
Baja California coast, is continuing to feed moisture into the
upper ridge and clearly is preventing drier air over Arizona from
moving into the anti-cyclonic circulation dominating West Texas.
Very noteworthy is the Midland, Texas 12Z sounding from this
morning, which shows a saturated profile to 500mb and 1.92 inches
of precipitable water. Now, that`s wet! in addition, the NAM and
GFS indicate remnants of Polo will continue to feed mid- and
upper-level moisture into the ridge trough Monday. That`s the good
news; unfortunately for West Central Texas, models continue to
indicate the best rain chances will be to the northwest and west
for the next 24 hours. In addition, a weak cold front still looks
likely to move into West Central Texas overnight tonight; that
boundary will also help rain chances for Monday. The potential for
flash flooding from locally heavy rainfall will continue for the
next 24 hours; especially, over our western counties.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday)

Rain chances and temperatures very close to seasonal normals will
continue through Wednesday. Models indicate the best low-level
moisture will be over mainly the western half of our counties. Thus,
continuing at least slight chance PoPs for mainly the western half
of our area looks best.

(Wednesday night through Saturday)

The remainder of the long term looks dry with unremarkable lows
and highs near seasonal normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  82  61  83  62 /  20  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  68  84  64  84  64 /  20  30  20  20  20
Junction  67  87  64  85  63 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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