Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 042308
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
608 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions and light winds to continue for the next
24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT-TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A deep trough continues to move slowly east across the Great Lakes
this afternoon, with another deep cyclone inching slowly toward the
CA coast. A sharp upper-level ridge has built between these troughs,
extending from the Southern Rockies, north into the Prairie
Provinces. Dry northwesterly flow aloft downstream of this ridge
will continue over the Southern Plains through the next 24 hours,
maintaining mostly clear skies and tranquil weather conditions
across West Central TX.

Northwest winds will continue this afternoon at 8-12 mph, with
occasional gusts to around 20 mph. Once the boundary layer begins to
decouple around sunset, winds will become light and variable. With
dewpoints in the 40s and clear skies overhead, temperatures should
have no problem falling into the lower 50s across much of the area
overnight. In fact, a few low-lying areas will likely fall into the
40s. Temperatures will warm quickly after sunrise, eventually
topping out between 83-87 degrees. We may see a few high clouds
during the afternoon, but this shouldn`t affect temperatures. Light
and variable winds early in the day will become southeasterly by
mid/late afternoon.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

The upper level ridge will slowly shift east across Texas and the
Southern Plains Friday and Saturday, with southwest flow developing
aloft. Seasonably warm high temperatures are expected, mostly in the
mid 80s. With surface trough development to our west and increased
surface pressure gradient, will have increased south-southeast
winds across our area. Isolated or widely scattered shower/
thunderstorm development will be possible by late Saturday
afternoon along the surface trough/ dryline, and cannot rule out
the possibility of a few storms moving into our western counties
Saturday night.

The forecast pattern looks supportive for increased thunderstorm
chances, developing Sunday afternoon and continuing Sunday night.
An upper low will move from near Las Vegas Saturday into Colorado on
Sunday. The dryline will mix east into our western counties, and may
have increased low-level convergence given the coincidental position
of the dryline and surface trough. With increased large scale
ascent, moderate to strong instability and increased vertical shear,
the setup favors the possibility of severe weather.

The aforementioned upper low is progged to lift northeast to the
vicinity of Nebraska on Monday, with trailing trough axis swinging
east through west central Texas Monday evening. Some convective
redevelopment looks possible across our eastern counties on Monday,
before shifting east.

Temperatures will be warm Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 80s expected. A weak backdoor cold front may sag into our
northern counties on Tuesday, followed by an intrusion of a slightly
stronger cold front on Wednesday. These boundaries may provide a
focus for convective development, but have uncertainty on moisture
availability. With the uncertainty and collaborative considerations,
going with slight chance PoPs across parts of our area during that
time.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  84  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  52  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  49  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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