Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 281200
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
700 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus will affect the southern terminals this morning, with
mainly IFR ceilings through mid morning, then lifting to MVFR by
late morning. Stratus is expected to scatter out after 18Z, with
a return to VFR. Main challenge later this afternoon into tonight
will be convective chances across the terminals. Latest model
guidance indicates scattered convection developing mainly across
the southern terminals after 20Z, with convection possible at KABI
later this evening. Given coverage uncertainties at this time,
will only mention VCTS at the terminals for now. Stratus is
expected to develop again overnight, with mainly MVFR ceilings
possible after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 447 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)

Low level moisture has made a rapid return across the area, as
the dryline retreated westward across the area overnight. A weak
front was situated to our northwest, extending from just south of
Lubbock, to near Childress, then northeast across western
Oklahoma. The southern portion of this front will remain nearly
stationary today. The dryline and the stationary front will be a
focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon, with
additional convective development possible in the warm sector over
West Central Texas during peak heating as the CAP weakens some.

A negative factor for storm development today will be the lack of
large-scale ascent across the area and weak convergence along the
aforementioned boundaries. However, models show a weak disturbance
approaching from the southwest this evening, which may aid in storm
development. Hi-res model data from the HRRR and Texas Tech WRF both
indicate scattered convection developing, with the WRF being the more
aggressive model. Any storms that develop will have the potential to
become severe, given strong instability and ample deep layer shear.
The main storm hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. In
addition, with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches, storms
will be capable of producing torrential downpours, which may lead to
some localized flash flooding. Given the uncertainty regarding
convective initiation and storm coverage, will limit POPs to 30-40
percent this afternoon into tonight. Expect highs in the upper 80s
and lower 90s today, with lows tonight mainly in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

An upper trough will make rather slow eastward progress across the
southwestern states Sunday into Wednesday. Embedded disturbances
will enter Texas in the southwest flow aloft ahead of the main
trough. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF have trended into better agreement
and are a little slower with this system, which at times has a
closed low.

With persistent south-southeast low-level flow, a moist airmass will
be maintained with precipitable water values generally between 1.2
and 1.7 inches across our area. Strong instability will be combined
with a capping inversion, and the timing/placement of embedded
disturbances could play a key role in the extent of convective
development. a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across our area
roughly along/northwest of a Throckmorton to Water Valley to
Ozona line. The TTU WRF suggests thunderstorm development and
organization northwest of our area, with subsequent track across
some of our northern counties during the overnight hours. We are
carrying PoPs generally in the 30-50 percent range Sunday through
Tuesday.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF are slow but remain progressive with the upper
trough during the middle to late part of next week. The trough is
progged to enter Texas Wednesday night and track across much of
the state on Thursday. A cold frontal passage is progged by both
models, with consensus timing around Wednesday afternoon and early
evening. With surface and upper support, could have widespread
coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Given the
latest trends, rain chances should shut off by Thursday night.
Cooler and drier conditions (with overall pleasant temperatures)
look to be in store for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  67  86 /  30  30  50  40
San Angelo  67  86  68  87 /  40  30  40  30
Junction  70  85  68  85 /  40  30  40  40

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24



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