Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 040538
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016
A large area of light to moderate rain is moving across most TAF
locations overnight. Mainly IFR expected through the night and
much of the day tomorrow. Will see quite a bit of variability in
visibility and ceiling heights as precipitation moves
through...especially over eastern TAF sites in the next few
hours...JCT/BBD. Winds generally north at 5 to 10 kt. May see a
little improvement in ceilings by mid day tomorrow, but more rain
expected in the afternoon/evening.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/
Not much change through the next 24 hours with continued IFR
conditions with light drizzle, occasional fog, and low clouds. May
see brief MVFR conditions before midnight tonight, and possibly
some improvement again toward late morning mainly north. Another
round of heavier precipitation is expected near 12Z and continuing
through the morning for southern TAF locations.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/
(Tonight and Sunday)
An unsettled pattern will continue during the next 24 hours as a
well developed upper level low remains over northwest Mexico. Also,
our area will see weak mid to upper level ascent and some isentropic
upglide/overrunning over the cool airmass in place. The Hi Res
models indicated another area of showers moving northeast across
West Central Texas late this evening into the early morning hours,
and then more showers and a few lightning strikes possible across
the southern half of the area by late Sunday morning and afternoon.
The highest rainfall amounts(0.25 to 0.75 inches) will be along the
I-10 corridor. Also, expect patchy fog late tonight and Sunday
morning due to saturation in the boundary layer and light winds.
Temperatures will remain cold, with lows in the lower 40s and highs
Sunday in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Upper level low moves out of Mexico and across the Hill Country
late Sunday Night into Monday, producing another widespread wave
of showers and a few thunderstorms. Best chances across the
southeast counties along and south of a San Angelo to Abilene
line. Upper low shifts east and takes the rain with it, leaving a
dry forecast in store.
A weak frontal boundary is forecast to drop through the area on
Tuesday behind the upper low, but a return of sunshine will
largely offset any cooling. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s
expected. Stronger arctic front drives through the area late
Wednesday, most likely after peak heating. This will need to be
watched however, if it comes through faster than expected, highs
for Wednesday will need to be dropped. Temperatures for the rest
of the week to remain cold, with highs on Thursday in the upper 30s
and lower 40s. Lows will be dropping well below freezing, into the
low to mid 20s in many locations.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 48 43 50 42 / 50 60 20 60
San Angelo 50 44 49 42 / 50 60 60 80
Junction 52 44 51 43 / 90 80 70 90
Brownwood 49 44 52 43 / 90 70 50 80
Sweetwater 46 42 48 41 / 50 60 30 50
Ozona 51 43 48 42 / 50 70 70 80