Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 261757
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1257 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...

The visible satellite imagery is indicating a pair of weak upper
level disturbances moving into western sections of West Central
Texas. The combination of lift associated with the disturbances
and some instability will cause scattered thunderstorms to develop
across much of the area by mid afternoon through this evening. A
few marginal severe storms are possible mainly south of a Sterling
City to San Angelo to Brady line. The main hazards will be
damaging winds, hail and dangerous lightning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

UPDATE...

Please see the 1800 UTC aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Weak upper level disturbances, one located over Big Spring and the
other over eastern Pecos county near Sheffield, will migrate over
all terminals this afternoon. These disturbances will create lift
of a very moist air mass and thunderstorms are possible at all
terminals generally in the 20Z to 00Z range. However, confidence
is sufficiently low to preclude mention of TSRA save for KABI.
Here, there is enough signal from observations and convection-
allowing models to put a TEMPO at KABI. Elsewhere, amendments may
be necessary given the scattered nature of convection this
afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and
light easterly to southeasterly winds outside of thunderstorm
activity.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms is moving southeast
across the Permian Basin and may approach KSJT and KABI after 12z.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, decreasing this evening. Stratus will result in
MVFR ceilings at all sites this morning, with VFR conditions
returning by late morning or early afternoon. Light and variable
winds this morning will become east at around 10 knots this
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A line of thunderstorms is moving southeast across the South Plains
and Permian basin early this morning. This convection is forecast to
slowly weaken later this morning as it approaches our western
counties. This should set the stage for additional shower and
thunderstorm development this afternoon, along remnant outflow
boundaries. PoPs were kept in the 30-50 percent range across much of
the forecast area. The main concern with these storms will be
locally heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds. Highs today will once
again be below seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 80s. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight, with lows in
the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Upper level high pressure will remain centered across the
Southwest US on Tuesday, creating northerly flow aloft across
West Central Texas. Models continue to indicate isolated to
scattered convection across the area, mainly across the Heartland
and Hill Country counties southeast of a Brownwood to Sonora line.
The upper level ridge builds across the area more on Wednesday and
continues through the rest of the work week. High weakens lightly
over the weekend as the center of the high redevelops across East
Texas for early next week. This transition leaves a brief window
where a few showers and storms will again be possible across
mainly the Big Country on Friday Night.

High temperatures will gradually climb through the week, with the
hottest temperatures on Friday and Saturday wit readings again
climbing to near the 100 degree mark in a few locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  89  70  94 /  30  20   5   0
San Angelo  69  90  70  96 /  40  20   5   5
Junction  69  87  68  92 /  30  30   5   5
Brownwood  68  88  68  91 /  20  20   5   5
Sweetwater  67  92  69  94 /  30  20   5   0
Ozona       68  90  68  92 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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