Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 031125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered upper level clouds have held low cloud development in
check early this morning. MVFR CIGs are finally starting to become
organized, and should at least affect KSOA and KJCT intermittently
for a few hours this morning. Will leave them out at KSJT and KBBD
for now, but will amend if needed. After 15Z this morning, any
ceilings that have developed should scatter out, leaving VFR
conditions through the rest of the TAF period, with continued
south to southeast winds of around 10 knots or less. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Very few changes are needed to the general theme of the short term
forecast. The upper level ridge will move very little with the ridge
axis falling southwest to northeast across our CWA today. This will
keep temperatures hot, and rain chances minimal. High resolution
models again try to generate isolated showers this afternoon and
evening, but with the ridge basically centered on top of the CWA,
this would be unexpected. Temperatures will be very similar to the
past few days.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper ridge over the central part of the nation will begin to
shift to the east on Thursday in response to an upper low entering
the Pacific Northwest. By this weekend the upper low will have
moved over the northern Rockies with the upper ridge becoming
positively tilted from Texas to the Great Lakes as a broad upper
trough begins to encompass all of the the western CONUS. However,
the upper high will continue to be centered over Central Texas
concomitant with continued dry weather for the forecast area. A
cold front associated with the upper low will push south into the
Panhandle late this weekend and into the first of next week and is
not expected to enter the northern Big Country until Wednesday. As
the upper high over Central Texas begins to retreat westward, the
flow aloft over West Central Texas will finally begin shifting to
the northwest by mid-week. The best chance of convective activity
should be on Wednesday primarily over the Big Country as upper
disturbances traverse our area in the northwest flow aloft
juxtaposed with the aforementioned cold front. However, the GFS
and ECMWF both carry a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northwest Big Country during the day on Tuesday. Will
leave this slight chance in the forecast with the caveat that the
best chance of precipitation still looks to be on Wednesday over
most of the Big Country.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  71  95  74 /   5   0  10   5
Junction  94  72  93  72 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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