Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 042031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
231 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Mid/upper level transitory ridge will continue to slide across
central ND this afternoon then exit to our east this evening.
Attention then turns toward a shortwave currently located over far
southeast Alberta, supporting a strong surface cold front which
will shift through western ND 09-12z/3am-6am CST Monday, and
through central ND 15-18z/9am-noon CST Monday. Once frontal
passage occurs, expect northwest winds to increase with cold air
advection dominating for several days to come. Both the NAM/GFS QG
fields advertise poor alignment between the lower level frontogenetical
forcing field and the mid/upper level divergence field. The end
result is/has been for snow amounts to trend much lower across all
of western and central ND. The ECMWF is the only model that seems
to hold onto higher snow amounts in the Turtle mountains while
coinciding with the strong northwest winds. The Baggaley Blowing
Snow Model predicts patchy blowing snow with a brief period of
areas of blowing snow in the Turtle Mountains Monday night. Snow
amounts from model to model run have been trending less since
yesterday. Hence after coordination with Grand Forks WFO, we decided
to hold off on any winter weather highlights since uncertainty
remains rather high on snow amounts, and also in the timing of
the falling snow coinciding with the strong winds. Overall snow
amounts will be an inch or less in most areas. The exception(s)
will be in northern ND, along and north of Highway 2 where between
1 and 2 inches of snow is forecast. And there is potential of
between 2 and 4 inches in Bottineau/Rolette/Pierce counties. But
again, this has been shifting and trending lower the past couple
of days. There is still time for future shifts to re-evaluate any
changes to possible winter weather headlines across the Turtle

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

High confidence continues for frigid air along with brisk northwest
winds Tuesday through Thursday resulting in wind chills to approach
30 below zero, especially during the overnight and early morning
hours. Will continue messaging this in the HWO/Hazardous Weather
Outlook and in social media. A backdoor cold front shifts through
Wednesday night with a round of snow showers and a reinforcement
of cold air. A quick transition toward warm air advection commences
Friday through Friday night ahead of another cold frontal passage.
This will produce light accumulating snowfall during this time.
Successive events similar to Friday and Friday night continues
through next weekend with additional light snowfall amounts with
each passage.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Vfr cigs begin this Taf period and will continue until 00z
Monday. Thereafter, cigs will trend downward toward mvfr/ifr after
00z Monday through 18z Monday. Gusty northwest winds to around
25kt will develop after 12z Monday with a vcsh at all terminals
except KJMS.




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