Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 301456

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
956 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Issued at 952 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Only a couple minor adjustments this morning. Utilized a blend of
short term models for pops through this afternoon. Also made some
minor adjustments to sky cover based on latest satellite imagery.

UPDATE Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Stratus clouds streaming into southeast North Dakota and this
looks like it will impact the James River Valley west to near
Bismarck. Overall this is expected to impact aviation more than
the public forecast although if the stratus persists the entire
day it may impact temperatures. The HRRR/CONSshort suite of models
so far depicts it as transient at least into the early afternoon.
Other than this no other changes.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Most of the area will be dry and mild today with an upper level
ridge centered on North Dakota through the early afternoon.

By the afternoon hours rain showers may develop across western
North Dakota as the ridge flattens out and pushes east and an
upper level wave approaches. Rain showers are more likely across
northwest North Dakota later tonight as the wave pushes closer
western North Dakota.

Temperatures today should be similar to or slightly cooler than
yesterday. Cloud cover may limit the more significant heating.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

A storm system early next week, followed by a warm-up highlight
the extended forecast.

Thursday night through Saturday a weak surface trough and weak
upper level shortwave trough track slowly east across the forecast
area. This will keep minimal precipitation chances in the
forecast, mainly across the west and north. Upper level flow
becomes more zonal on Sunday and a quick moving shortwave trough
tracking along the International border will bring another chance
of showers along the northern portions of North Dakota. With each
of these waves, there will be a minimal threat of mixed
precipitation during the late night and early morning hours across
extreme northern North Dakota. QPF amounts are also minimal with
these two systems.

Early next week, a stronger upper trough will track into the
plains. Again, the majority of the energy within this split
trough tracks well to our south. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with respect to precipitation placement and amounts
and a few models do bring more significant precipiation into
southern North Dakota. After this system moves through, there is
better model consensus in building a strong upper ridge over the
western and central U.S. bringing a warm-up to the forecast area
by mid to late in the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 952 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Low level southeast flow expected to bring a stratus deck into
southeast North Dakota today. This has impacted KJMS with a period
of IFR ceilings. KBIS will be on the western edge with scattered
MVFR clouds around 25 hundred AGL. Otherwise VFR.




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