Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 260946
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
346 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
CLOUDS TODAY AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE HIGH...WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND ISOLATED
FLURRIES PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY COULD BE IF THE
SKY WAS CLEAR. PRESSURE RISES GENERATING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15
MPH RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO SOME LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

MODELS STILL DOING POORLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS DECK
PAST DAYBREAK. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS
WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE LATER TODAY ONCE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND SUNSHINE EATING AWAY AT THE LOW CLOUDS TOP TO BOTTOM.

WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM STORM TRACKS
TODAY AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH
HIGHS NORTH CENTRAL ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN THIS SAME AREA HAD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT THIS MORNING IS THE RETURN OF COLDER
WEATHER TO NORTH DAKOTA.

00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF THE POSITIVE
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN WITH SHARP RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO ALASKA...AND FULL LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT.

FOR NORTH DAKOTA...THAT MEANS AN ALMOST CONSTANT NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WITH A STEADY FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY BREAK IN
COLD IS FORECAST BY THE 00 UTC GFS/GEM GLOBAL/ECMWF AND THE 25/12
UTC NAEFS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN A PORTION OF THE
MODEL SUITE. WHILE THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION WITH THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE...
REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THUS...THE NEW YEAR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO VFR LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THOUGH STILL SOME QUESTION IN HOW
LONG THE IMPROVEMENT WILL LAST BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...NH










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.