Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 050820
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAWSON/WIBAUX/RICHLAND COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA
SHOULD REACH THE MCKENZIE/GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM
CDT...3AM/4AM MDT. A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING
CONTEMPLATED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR KJMS APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THREAT INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF MONTANA LIKELY WILL REACH
KISN AROUND 09Z-10Z AND KDIK 10Z-11Z. THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MORE LIKELY AT KDIK AND PLAN TO UPDATE TAF AS NEEDED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG WINDS WITH STORMS MOVING AT AROUND
40 KNOTS.

LATER THIS MORNING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS...AND THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS. MORE SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV


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