Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230515

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Surface low pressure is located over the James River Valley with
gusty northwest winds across the southwest and south central.
Utilized a blend of short term guidance to bump up the winds
across the south central overnight. Wrap around moisture is
pushing south into northwest and north central ND. Again used a
blend of short term guidance for sky cover, which brought clouds a
little farther south than previously forecast. Still breezy and
very dry above the cloud layer which should inhibit fog
development west. Removed fog early in the overnight hours for now
and will monitor to see if anything develops before the next
package goes out. Kept a chance of showers over the far north
central through 12 UTC, otherwise dry. Clouds and winds should
help keep temperatures up overnight so bumped up temperatures a
little. Update products will be sent shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 924 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

No changes for tonight other than to blend to observed trends
through 02 UTC. Little to no precipitation across north central
North Dakota is reaching the ground with dry air below 700 mb.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Added fog to northwest North Dakota for late tonight into early
Saturday morning with this update. As low pressure across western
North Dakota into central South Dakota this evening propagates
east through the night, low level moisture in southern Canada will
wrap around behind the low, with stratus spreading across much of
the area late tonight into Saturday morning. The best chances for
fog are favored across northwest North Dakota per the 20-22 UTC
HRRR/RAP/GLAMPMELD iterations. This is in with observed trends
across Canada.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A low pressure system continues to push west to east across the
northern plains. Short range models have handled the precipitation
well. Rain for the most part has stayed in the northern tier
counties of North Dakota. Chances for rain will diminish as the
system pushes further east tonight.

The previous few HRRR runs have shown the potential for some fog
to develop overnight in the northwest. However with minimal low
level moisture and the potential for cloud cover in the area have
held off on the mention of fog at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry and mild as upper level ridging develops over the area late
Sunday. With the peak of the ridge in place over the northern
plains Monday, southerly flow will be breezy with gusts near 25
mph across central and western North Dakota.

A short wave and low pressure system looks to develop on Tuesday
over the central plains with some wrap around rain entering
eastern North Dakota Tuesday into early Wednesday. As of now the
ECMWF is slower and favors a more northern track of the central
plains low and is wetter than the GFS solution. Upper level
ridging again builds over the region behind these two waves,
bringing mild and mainly dry conditions through the remainder of
the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A low pressure center/cold front was over the Turtle Mountains and
James Valley at midnight CDT...and will continue moving east this
morning. A large cloud shield of MVFR and occasional IFR stratus
behind the cold front encompassed much of south central Canada...and
the leading edge of this cloud shield had entered the northern tier
of ND and was poised to reach KMOT and KISN by 06-07z. This band of
MVFR stratus will move southeast and should reach KBIS-KJMS between
09z-12z. Expect stratus to begin dissipating during the early/mid
afternoon hours. At this time it appears that KDIK may remain VFR
through the day - confidence not high enough to warrant MVFR mention
at KDIK. MVFR to IFR vsbys in fog are possible at KISN on the
western edge of the clouds early this morning.

Gusty west/northwest winds behind the front should decrease with
time early this morning - except KJMS may see gusty northwest winds
for much of the nighttime hours early this morning.




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