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000
FXUS64 KBMX 280811
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
311 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2024

One more day with high pressure in control of the area. Of course
the center of the high pressure is off the coast of Virginia, so it
will continue to lose its grip over the area. With that said and
southerly flow, there should be just enough lift this afternoon to
generate a shower/storm or two in the southwestern portions of the
area. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s once again.
Skies clear up some tonight, but the southerly flow continues, so
low clouds will likely develop again overnight.

On Monday, the front continues to slowly work its way east. By the
afternoon, there should be an ongoing complex of storms to our
west. This MCS should begin to accelerate in the afternoon and
approach our western counties. Problem with the forecast is what will
happen to the MCS? Could it hold its trajectory and slide through
the southern half of the area, or will it pull out and then shift
to the south of our area? Each scenario is plausible, so the
confidence and placement of the best rain chances Monday afternoon
is low. Ultimately the placement of the high pressure system to
our west, weaknesses on the western edge of the high pressure, and
amount of the rain in the resultant cold pool, will all play a
part, so the mesoscale features will be really important as we
approach this time frame. Typically this pattern results in more
of a southern push with the cold pool and thus we would be cut off
from the main action. As we see some more model runs we should
get a better feel of the likely path. For now the best rain
chances will be in the west by Monday afternoon, with the best
potential for strong storms would be in the southwest.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2024

A mid-level shortwave trough and associated sharp upper-level
trough will move through Alabama Monday night into Tuesday
morning, accompanied by an axis of PWATs around 1.6 inches. As
mentioned above, there is uncertainty over whether an MCS will be
over the area to start the period or if it will be southwest of
the forecast area. If there is an MCS over the area it should
weaken and eventually dissipate as it encounters a drier low-level
air mass. With MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear
only around 25-30kts, while some gusty winds will be possible the
probability of severe storms is very low. Meanwhile, what may be a
separate area of showers and storms will move across the northern
counties Monday night due to forcing associated with the upper
trough and the right entrance region of the upper-level streak.
The uncertainties carry over into Tuesday regarding how quickly
subsidence and dry northwesterly flow put an end to the rain
chances. Overall the model consensus supports chance PoPs during
the morning decreasing through the afternoon. Lingering clouds
could take a couple of degrees off of the high temperatures.

Ridging will build over the Gulf up the East Coast Wednesday and
Thursday, downstream of a trough over the northern Rockies
eventually reaching the Northern and Central Plains. A few weak
convectively generated shortwaves move through in relatively weak
westerly flow aloft while moisture attempts to move in from the
west, but with the ridge PoPs remain only 10-20%. Temperatures
warm into the upper 80s with some highs around 90 in the southeast
counties. A cold front eventually approaches from the northwest
Friday into Saturday, but models vary with how much progress it
makes before stalling, depending on the amplitude of the trough
moving through the north-central CONUS. Some increase in rain
chances will occur as moisture increases ahead of the front.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2024

VFR conditions continue across the area. There will be a brief
window between 12 and 16z in which some low level MVFR ceilings
develop, so included in the TAFS with this update. These clouds
lift and we remain at/or above 5000 feet for the rest of this
cycle. Winds will be gusty at times today with gusts up to 20 kts.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above
critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning, with
increasing rain chances across west Alabama late Monday afternoon
into Monday night and again on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     82  58  84  60 /   0   0  10  70
Anniston    82  60  84  62 /   0   0  10  50
Birmingham  82  62  84  62 /  10   0  20  70
Tuscaloosa  84  62  84  62 /  10  10  40  70
Calera      81  61  83  63 /  10   0  20  60
Auburn      81  61  83  63 /   0   0  10  20
Montgomery  84  61  85  64 /   0   0  20  40
Troy        84  60  85  62 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32/Davis
AVIATION...16