Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 260101
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
801 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 717 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2024

Key Messages:

-Windy conditions will affect all of central Alabama into Tuesday
 morning. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph are possible.

-Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for areas near and
 east of I-65. The best chances will be west and southwest near
 Demopolis, Eutaw, Tuscaloosa, and Aliceville. The main threats
 remain damaging wind and tornado.

The CAM model trend over the past 12 hours has slowed the
convective development and its eastward motion down. The latest
timing graphic has already been adjusted late this afternoon with
the risk starting around midnight and getting to just east of
I-65 by around 6am. The latest radar depictions are also backing
these solutions with the line of storms near the Ark-La-Miss at
730 pm. Additionally, the moisture return becomes pinched off as
it enters western Alabama. This will significantly affect the
instability that is available. This will certainly limited the
coverage of any severe threat overnight. Shear is certainly not a
problem, so monitoring the mesoscale will remain a high priority.
Due to the pressure gradient and the winds just above the
surface, the Wind Advisory has been extended to the entire area
with gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible. Storm total rainfall has been
decreasing for a few days and it looks like most areas observe
1-2 inches. Most locations should be able to handle that rainfall,
unless it all happens in a very short period of time.

The main message remains the same with thunderstorms overnight.
Just some small changes to the timing. Stay weather aware during
the overnight hours.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2024

A mild, breezy afternoon is underway across Central Alabama
downstream of a deepening mid to upper-level trough over the Central
Plains. Clouds are increasing ahead of the trough with south to
southwesterly flow aloft. A strong pressure gradient is developing
due to the interaction between high pressure along the East Coast
and the developing system to our west. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph
have been ongoing for much of the day, and gusts are likely to
increase to as high as 35 to 45 mph overnight as a cold front moves
across the Lower MS River Valley. A Wind Advisory will be in effect
for most of Central Alabama until 10 AM tomorrow morning. Winds will
decrease west to east behind the frontal passage.

Thunderstorms have begun initiating across the ArkLaTex, and the
activity is expected to organize as the severe weather potential
increases across the Lower MS Valley throughout the remainder of the
day. A line of storms will be oriented along the cold front as they
approach western portions of Central Alabama around midnight. A
strong 50-70kt low-level jet and 90 to 100kts of mid-level flow will
result in prime conditions for organized thunderstorms, but limited
availability of SBCAPE, which will diminish with time, will act to
limit the overall severe threat. Dewpoints have been slowly rising
today but still remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s due to the east-
southeasterly sfc winds. There`s still work to do to achieve the
necessary dewpoints in the mid 60s, and short term guidance
continues to resolve a diminishing, suppressed warm sector
characterized by 200-500 J/kg of SBCAPE across our far
southwestern counties just ahead of the line of storms. It does
appear that conditions in this zone will be most supportive for
severe weather where the meager instability could align with
200-400 m2/s2 of eff. SRH to support a tornado or damaging wind
gusts, but we continue to stress that the overall threat is
limited. On the other hand, QPF has been lowered slightly in this
update. We`re still expecting around 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall
over areas along the I-20 corridor west of I-65. This will
support a limited threat of flooding for low-lying and poor
drainage areas.

The line of showers and weakening storms will move east of I-65 by
mid-morning then continue into Georgia through the afternoon as
the parent trough rotates northeast towards the Great Lakes Region.
Decreasing clouds behind the front will allow temperatures to
warm into the lower to mid 70s, especially west of I-65.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2024

By Tuesday evening, the cold front will be to our southeast with
clouds continuing to decrease through the night. Wednesday, a
short wave rounding the main trough axis will allow a surface low
to strengthen along that cold front. Models have trended this
strengthening closer to the Carolina coast. This will keep Central
Alabama dry on Wednesday, except maybe a sliver of the extreme
southeast where a few showers are possible.

With the main trough axis moving to the east of the area, upper
level ridging will build across the Plains and high pressure
slides into the Southeast by Thursday night. Clear skies and
calming winds will allow temperatures to cool into the mid 30s
across the north, with patchy frost possible Friday morning.
Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Through the weekend, upper level flow becomes zonal, with the
surface high centered to the east of Central Alabama. Westerly to
southwesterly flow through the low to mid levels will allow
temperatures to moderate, with mid 70s to lower 80s expected for
the weekend. Dry air and ridging will keep the area rain free.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2024

The terminal forecast trend appears about the same. A area of
showers and thunderstorms will enter central Alabama overnight and
affect the terminals from west to east. Wind gusts potential, due
to the pressure gradient and winds just above the surface mixing
down, will be over 30kts at times. LLWS has been added at TCL/BHM
with winds around 2k ft having a high potential of topping 50kts.
Otherwise, the ceilings and vis go down to MVFR just ahead of the
storms. A few locations may even dip into IFR briefly. The rain
chances end west to east starting in the early afternoon. Ceilings
will also improve as the rain ends but may be slower to clear
east and south.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A frontal boundary will approach the area tonight, with an area of
rain and thunderstorms arriving overnight. The front and
associated rains will move through Central Alabama through
tomorrow morning. Southeasterly 20ft winds remain elevated ahead
of the front, at 20-25mph overnight. Winds gradually diminish
through the day on Tuesday, before turning to the northwest the
north by Wednesday morning, at 5-8mph.

Moisture increases ahead of the front tonight, followed by drier
air arriving by Wednesday. Minimum RH values will be in the 38 to
48 percent range Wednesday afternoon. Minimum RH values will fall
below 30 percent both Thursday and Friday afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  69  47  69 /  90  90  10  10
Anniston    59  70  49  70 /  70 100  10  10
Birmingham  56  72  48  68 / 100  90  10  10
Tuscaloosa  58  74  48  70 / 100  60   0   0
Calera      57  72  49  70 /  90  90  10  10
Auburn      58  68  53  74 /  40  90  30  10
Montgomery  63  71  52  73 /  50  90  10  10
Troy        63  71  53  75 /  30  90  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following counties:
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-Pickens-Sumter-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...75


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