Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
420 FXUS64 KBMX 101552 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1052 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025 High pressure will remain over the Gulf, keeping westerly to southwesterly flow over the area through the short term. Diurnal convection is possible today and Friday. Overall lapse rates are not impressive and weak shear will be present. Thunderstorms could be strong, but not advertising severe at this time. Any thunderstorm and stronger shower could produce high rain rates with PW values max for this time of year, especially across the southern half of the state. There should be enough mid level winds for the storms to have movement, though any training or slower moving storms could cause localized flash flooding in a few areas. Depending on the duration and location of activity this evening, fog development is likely in those areas. Will need to watch activity tonight to see where the likely areas will be for fog. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025 High pressure will be the main story through the extended. Saturday, diurnal activity is expected, with mid level flow out of the west and southwest. By Sunday, the high strengthens over the southwestern part of the state as an upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley and into the eastern states. This will transition the low level flow to the north and northwest. Though diurnal activity is expected, the coverage could be slightly less Sunday with weaken moisture advection with the wind shift. By Monday, the high will be firmly across the southeast US with diurnal activity again. Tuesday, models are trying to show another trough moving across the northern parts of the country, bringing a weak boundary or area of rain. There is some uncertainty if this will be enough to push the high off to other areas, but confidence is low. Right now will advertise the high should remain, if not weaker, through at least Wednesday. Diurnal activity will remain each day. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025 Isolated to scattered activity will develop through the afternoon and remain into the early night. There is a good bit of uncertainty of timing of any activity over a TAF site so included VCSH for now in each TAF, and a PROB30 to account for the time with the highest anticipated coverage. Any convection could produce IFR to LIFR visibilities with high rates from deep moisture over the state today. Fog development is possible overnight with that high amount of low level moisture. Where activity occurs late tonight will cause IFR to LIFR visibilities due to fog in the morning. Diurnal activity is expected again mid to late morning on Friday. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with elevated rain chances through Friday and somewhat lower chances for the weekend. 20 foot winds should remain less than 8 mph from the west and southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 69 89 69 / 60 30 60 20 Anniston 86 70 87 70 / 70 30 70 20 Birmingham 88 72 89 71 / 60 30 70 20 Tuscaloosa 88 72 89 72 / 70 30 70 20 Calera 87 72 87 71 / 70 30 70 20 Auburn 89 71 87 71 / 70 40 70 20 Montgomery 91 72 89 72 / 70 40 80 20 Troy 91 71 89 71 / 70 40 80 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24