318
FXUS62 KCAE 160817
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
417 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected this evening. Upper
ridging will provide a brief break in the unsettled conditions
on Thursday. Shower and thunderstorms chances increase again
Friday and especially on Saturday with unsettled weather
lingering into early next week. Ridging builds in during the
middle of next week resulting in decreasing rain chances and a
gradual increase in temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...Fog has continued to develop across the northern
Midlands with some areas becoming dense with visibilities less
than one quarter mile. As such have issued a dense fog advisory
for the northern Midlands to the Pee Dee through 10 am.

Previous discussion...Convection has moved offshore with some
patchy fog and stratus developing mainly over the northern
Midlands and Pee Dee. Through daybreak expect the fog and
stratus to expand southward into the central Midlands with some
visibilities across the northern Midlands aob 1 mile. Overnight
lows will be in the low 60s.

Drier air currently on satellite imagery west of the area will
be moving in today as upper level ridging builds over the
region. The fog and stratus over the area early this morning
will quickly mix out with sunrise along with light northerly
winds aiding in drier air introduction. With the plentiful
surface moisture available from recent rains expect some
scattered cumulus to develop however with a weak inversion
aloft and 850-500 mb lapse rate at 5.5 C/Km expect vertical
development to be limited and no showers through the afternoon
and evening. This evening with the loss of heating the cumulus
will dissipate with mostly clear skies expected overnight. High
temperatures this afternoon will range from the low 80s in the
northern Midlands and Pee Dee to the mid 80s in the central
Midlands and CSRA. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge begins to move east through the day in response
to an upper level low moving out of the Southern Plains.
Moisture will once again be on the increase, so even though the
day will start off dry, the region should see the development of
isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms during the
afternoon. Better rainfall chances should occur Friday night as
the deeper trough moves towards the region. Temperatures for the
afternoon will reach the low to mid 80s. With the expected
increase in clouds, overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some uncertainty exists Saturday due to timing differences with
the models. Even if there are some timing issues, at some point
Saturday there should be numerous showers and/or thunderstorms
across the entire cwa. NBM shows likely to categorical pops for
much of the day, and will not really stray much from those
numbers. Sunday will see the upper low eventually moving through
and east of the cwa, and should see some shower activity early
in the day before some drying becomes possible during the
afternoon and evening. Behind the low, drier air returns and
will bring dry conditions then from Sunday night through
Wednesday. Temperatures next week rise back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions possible in early morning fog and stratus then
improving to VFR for the rest of the period.

Convection has moved well east of the terminals with the main
focus of the period being the potential for early morning fog
and stratus. Surface obs show fog beginning to develop around
and south of CLT with satellite imagery showing fog developing
along area rivers. Over the next couple of hours expect fog and
stratus to develop at AGS/OGB then into CAE/CUB shortly before
sunrise. Fog and stratus will quickly mix out with sunrise with
VFR through the end of the period. SCT diurnal cumulus will
develop from late morning through the afternoon hours however
expect vertical development to be limited with no convection
expected. Winds through the period will be NW to N at 7 knots or
less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible again Friday afternoon
through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ016-021-
     022-029-115-116.
GA...None.

&&

$$