Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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081
FXUS63 KFGF 232049
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
249 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Main forecast challenge and impacts will be upcoming snow system
affecting the far southern fa. Models remain consistent and in
good agreement so only some minor changes involving event.

12z models have trended a bit slower and slightly farther south
with northern edge of snow shield. As a result adjusted timing
back to mid evening tonight.  With winds not being an issue do
not see any reason for an advisory at this point. Clouds should
hold tight overnight and with little overall change in thermal
profiles temperatures will be cooler overnight but continue above
average.

Best chances for any measurable snowfall across the far south
will be Tuesday. With trends for farther south solution, snow
accumulations may be closer to 1-2 inches vs 1-3 however still
some spread in GEF plumes across the far south so overall any
changes were minor. No big swings in temperatures anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

To start the extended period...the main portion of the surface low
pressure system is forecast to track across Iowa and Illinois. Main
impacts across the region is expected to be a few inches of snowfall
in the far south and southeastern zones...with lesser amounts across
the rest of the forecast area. Otherwise...a cool upper trof shifts
south across the area bringing slightly cooler temps to the
region...but still generally above seasonal norms.

By Friday...expect more of a shift in the upper level pattern as the
ridge building in the west begins to migrate east...warming
temperatures a bit. The shift and amplification continues through
the weekend...with the possibility of temperatures warming to above
freezing again.  Model consensus indicates a clipper system
developing for the end of the forecast period...with the possibility
of measurable precipitation. Temperatures are forecast to remain on
the warm side through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

General MVFR cigs with VFr vsby expected through most of the
forecast period. Possible to see IFR cigs return tomorrow morning
as next system impacts the region but confidence not high on this
occurring.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Voelker



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