Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 232336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY CI UPSTREAM TO AFFECT THE
FA. TOMORROW WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE DVL BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER






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