Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE THE 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA.
RADAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE YET BUT THERE ARE ECHOES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA THAT ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. WITH THE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AGAIN TODAY EXPECT MORE SHOWERY PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE BEING MORE SNOW THIS MORNING
AND MIXED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE REPORTS OF ICE PELLETS WEST
OF THE FA YESTERDAY AND COULD GET SOME OF THOSE HERE TODAY TOO.
TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH UPWARD MOVEMENT TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS
LOOKING AT 5-10F OF RISE FROM WHERE THEY ARE AT NOW. WILL NOT
EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN TO SEE IF AN EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA HAD CIGS GENERALLY
ABOVE 30 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. WIND SHOULD SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





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