Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220925
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
325 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

The main forecast challenges are fog and pcpn chances, type, and
amounts. Winds across the northern FA have now taken on more of a
northerly component and have increased to 5 to 10 knots, and this
has allowed the dense fog to break up in most places. However, it
does appear to be moving southward, so expect conditions to
improve across the north and deteriorate across the south early
this morning. Not sure how long the fog will last, so for now will
continue to mention some until mid morning. As far as pcpn, it
seems to be coming out in fairly weak disjointed pieces. So far,
accumulations have been less than 0.01 inches. However, there are
a couple of areas of steadier echoes over western ND that will
probably make it into the FA by morning.

Otherwise the main shortwave appears to be back over eastern MT,
and that will come through this afternoon into the evening. Since
most of this is still coming through during daylight hours, doubt
it will produce much for snow accumulations. Unless it comes down
heavy enough, some will also melt as it falls. Have stuck with the
idea of a dusting for most areas, with up to an inch or so around
Devils Lake. The north winds will continue to shift southward
across the FA ushering in cooler air. The pcpn should shift east
of the FA by mid to late evening. With the cooler air coming
southward today and the north winds remaining in the 5 to 10 mph
range tonight, do not expect fog to become an issue again.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

The next system moving out into the Central and portions of the
Northern Plains later Thursday into Friday will still mainly
affect areas to the south and east of this FA. The 00z models
have trended a little further north with this system, but it still
looks to mainly brush only the southern and southeast FA with
some accumulating snow. With the variability in the track of this
system yet, not high confidence on snowfall amounts in the S and
SE, but at this point it looks like 2 to 5 inches. There could be
some wind associated with this system, which could last into
Friday night.

Models indicate a split jet scenario with the northern stream
cutting a broad upper trof over the region. With the upper
trof...expect cooler temperatures but with values closer to
seasonal norms.

A few upper level disturbances propagating thru the flow late this
weekend will bring slight chances for precipitation...although
amounts are expected to be light at this time.

By Tuesday...another low pressure system is expected to develop over
the central plains with an influx of Gulf moisture streaming north.
There is some uncertainty to the track of the system at this
point...but model guidance indicates better chances for measurable
precipitation over the forecast area. Will continue to follow
guidance and go with a blended soln with respect to POPs for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Grand Forks area once again high uncertainty in terms of
vsbys/cigs. In general expect IFR cat for most of the next 12-24
hours. IFR cigs may spread south thru the late night into
wednesday as cooler air moves south.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Hopkins
AVIATION...Riddle



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