Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221728
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1227 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE FCST AREA. WARM ADVECTION
TODAY WITH A GOOD 6C RISE IN 850 MB TEMPS FROM 00Z MON TO 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS WARMTH COMBINED WITH FULL SUN AND A FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ALL
AREAS...WITH CLOSE TO 80 IN THE NW FCST AREA WHERE 850 MB TEMPS
ARE WARMER. IN SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY IN SASKATCHEWAN HIGH
TEMPS WERE IN THE UPR 70S. WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS NOT
EXPECTING ANY CU.

SOUTH WIND TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS WARMER UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
TUESDAY WILL START TO SEE INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
A TAD COOLER...ESP IN SOUTHEASTERN ND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THRU SE ND INTO
NORTHWESTERN-WEST CENTRAL MN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...EXITING WED AFTN. DECENT 850 MB WIND TO BRING UP SOME
MOISTURE BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THUS RAINFALL AMTS
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.  CLEARING WILL WORK EAST WED AFTN-NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND FLATTENS. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN US AND WEAKENS. BY DAY 7, THE
PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CANADA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS
BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF
BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.

LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OR UNTIL NEXT SUN. SO NO CHANGES
TO THE POPS FROM YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE EACH DAY FOR ENTIRE PERIOD OR FROM THU
THROUGH SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAYBE SOME CIRRUS TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY LATER ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






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