Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 031747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH AS WELL...SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH TO THE
TUNE OF 20-25 MPH. THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S IN MOST AREAS TODAY. THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS RAISED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL IN THE REGION
AND SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE WEST SLOWLY WEST SEEING THE
WARMEST TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE 850 MB TEMPS WILL
SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW 500MB RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY TO START THE
PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20C. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR -RA/TSRA.
THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS ARE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH...AND THE GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
DROP BELOW THE 10 KT MARK OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. OBS AT FIRE SITES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ARE SHOWING 26 PERCENT RH AND WINDS GUSTING
ABOVE 30 KTS...SO WITH COORDINATION WITH MIFC AND LOCAL FIRE
OFFICIALS...EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO
KITTSON...MARSHALL...AND ROSEAU COUNTIES. GRASSES HAVE BEEN GREENING
UP NICELY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WITH WINDS AND LOW RH
VALUES AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRUSH FIRES...WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG GOING IN THAT AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...JR



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