Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191506
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1006 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The biggest question will be what happens with our stratus and how
much destabilization we get this afternoon for severe storm
potential. So far we are still socked in with some locations
showing 1 mile or less visibility, although there has been
improvement in the last couple of hours. Will include patchy fog
mention for a few more hours but think that the fog will be gone
by mid day. Stratus will be sticking around a bit longer but most
of the high resolution models have some clearing by 17-18Z, mainly
in the southwestern counties. Will keep a close eye on things but
think some sunshine in the southwest will set things off later on
this afternoon. Made some tweaks to POPs for a bit of showers
moving into the far northwest this morning, but think the main
chances will start moving into our west after 18Z today. There
continues to be an enhanced risk for severe storms across much of
the area, with a 10 percent probability of tornadoes over our
southern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level
jet around the south and east sides of the trough will shift east
today. Height fall better than 100M will move into the forecast
area after sunset Wed. Stronger upper level jet will round the
base of the trough and into the area after 06z Wed. Model soundings
indicate an inversion until mid-late afternoon. Severe weather is
expected from mid afternoon into the evening. Good shear profiles
and decent amount of instability is forecast for the
afternoon/evening along with the dynamics.

Fog loop indicated low clouds covered the forecast area this
morning Low clouds should dissipate mainly in the southern
zones by late morning/early afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Most of the Friday to Monday time frame continues to feature south
to southwest flow at 500mb. At the surface, a persistent boundary
will set up from southwest to northeast through the FA. Because the
500mb flow is more south-southwest than true southwest, this surface
boundary will not move eastward very much each day. Therefore,
periodic waves of energy are expected to ride up the 500mb flow and
interact with the surface boundary and produce a pretty wet period.
The entire four days may not wet, as some brief dry periods will
also mix in, but it will generally be wet. With the surface boundary
moving a little eastward each day, the Devils Lake region may get
out of the wet pattern a little earlier than other areas. With a
steady amount of cloud cover expected with the rain, temperatures
will generally stay on the cooler side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

IFR conditions are across much of the area with cigs below 6
hundred ft and visibilities mostly below 6 miles. IFR conditions
will remain across the area for the next couple hours. Then cigs
will rise to mostly VFR conditions by late morning or early
afternoon. The MN side will be last area to improve. IFR
conditions will return to the MN side later tonight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...JH


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