Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1048 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Issued at 936 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

No update for this short term forecast. Clear skies continue to
allow some fall in temps but southerly winds will keep mins in the
single digits below zero range. Main impact still expected to be
tomorrow evening and night in west central Minnesota.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Still hardly a cloud in the sky across the area, so it is a good
day to see the power of the late February sun at work. Afternoon
high at Bemidji has risen to 21F, while most other areas are
around 10F. May see a few clouds around tonight with fairly light
south winds. More clouds move in from south to north on Thursday,
with chances for light snow picking up by afternoon, mainly along
the ND/SD border. Still looks like some banding potential with
this, or the potential for some higher snow totals across the far
southern Red River Valley into west central Minnesota. Still
early, but it looks like 3-4 inches are possible in the above
mentioned area. After coordinating with neighboring offices, will
issue a winter weather advisory for Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night to cover this. Good thing this time around is that
wind speeds look to stay pretty low, so no compounded impacts from

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Thu night and Fri...The northern trend to low pressure and
associated pcpn continues with the 12z deterministic forecast
cycle. the GFS though continues to stick with with lower QPF and
keeps snow mostly in west central Minnesota. The NAM remains the
most robust with nearly 0.40 inch while the GFS has about half
that. The frontogenesis featured with the NAM would be associated
with the potential banding to produce the higher amounts. Advisory
type impacts would certainly be possible with actual snowfall
amounts likely winding up in the 2 to 5 inch range. Wind will not
be a factor this time around with the easterlies sustained at only
10 mph. The event should close out by mid morning Fri.

Sat through Wed...The next chance for snow comes Saturday as a
surface low moves into the Midwest and here again a track that
would favor our south and southeast forecast area seems likely.
This system would be a more potent Colorado low, but at this time
at least, it looks like it would offer a more glancing blow to the
southeast forecast area. Beyond this time quiet weather is to be
expected with more moderate areas of high pressure traversing the
region. Thus, an average temperature regime would be likely with
daytime highs well up in the 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

VFR. Light snow to develop across ern SD into srn MN and lift
into southern valley around noon tomorrow. VFR cigs will be in the
7K to 10K range from FAR-BJI through 00Z. Winds becoming more
south to southeasterly tomorrow. FAR/BJI/TVF expected to go to
MVFR cigs w/ light snow restricting vsbys down to 1 to 3 SM aft
sunset and continue through the night.


ND...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight CST
     Thursday night for NDZ052-053.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday
     for MNZ030-031-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday
     for MNZ024-028-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight CST
     Thursday night for MNZ029.



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