Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 260359
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
959 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 226 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2017

There are a couple periods of possible precipitation in the forecast
area over the next week. The first should develop over the area
Sunday morning into the afternoon. As the surface ridge moves east
of the area and flow becomes southerly, a strung out area of
potential vorticity and a weak mid-level shortwave will provide
enough upward momentum to lead to an area of precipitation
developing over the southern portions of the forecast area. This
area of ascent shows up well in the mid-level isentropic plots, 285K
through 295K, as the mid-level shortwave approaches. The thermal
profile for this suggest a wet snow or a cold rain initially as
the freezing level is low, down to perhaps 1000ft, but surface
temperatures are near to above freezing. As surface temperatures
warm, any precipitation should become all liquid.

There may be some warm advection showers Monday night into Tuesday
morning as a warm front lifts north of the area. That then sets the
day for a possible fire weather day across the area. There is a
great deal of spread regarding forecast dewpoints but model
soundings suggest deep mixing and steep lapse rates, transporting
down strong winds aloft. This also suggest that dewpoints will be
lower as well given the deep mixing. Right now humidity values
fall into the 30 to 35 percent range with wind gusts of 25 to 30
mph. Will definitely need to watch Tuesday afternoon as confidence
increases regarding the moisture profile.

The warm temperatures that occur Tuesday will crash back to reality
Wednesday as a strong front pushes through. This is part of a larger
system that may bring light snow accumulations to northwestern
and northern Missouri. A positively tilted trough will move across
the middle of the country. This will induce a surface low, which
models have decent agreement on, and tracks it through the
forecast area. This isn`t an ideal track for snow in Kansas City,
but it is for northwestern Missouri. The thermal profile again
looks marginal for snow but with a low freezing level and surface
temperatures near freezing, it does look like a period of a wet
snow or cold rain before temperatures warm later in the day.
Amounts still look paltry for this event, at this point probably
less than an inch.

The rest of the forecast looks quiet with split flow over the
western half of the country. Compared to the forecast from yesterday
for this period of time, the troughing over the Hudson Bay looks
deeper. This means we may be more in the northwest flow portion
of the split flow. With this in mind, models track a clipper
system from the Dakotas into Illinois, spreading a chance for
precipitation just to our north and northeast. For now our
forecast looks dry from Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 959 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a slight
chance of an isolated snow shower causing a temporary drop in
visibility mainly south of KMCI. Most guidance has the showers
staying south so for now only VCSH was added to KIXD and left out
of all other airports. Winds will be light out of the south
shifting to the southwest during the daytime and increasing to
near 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Barham/Laflin



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