Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Improving conditions will continue through the afternoon hours with
SW winds becoming NE through sunrise. Expect the upper-level cloud deck to
persist through the majority of Friday. Conditions overnight are
favorable for fog formation, though look to be relatively patchy
compared to the previous period. Remaining cloud cover should exit
the area Saturday morning as high pressure builds to the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh






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