433
FXUS63 KEAX 092211
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
511 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers with a isolated lightning strike
  possible across northern Missouri this afternoon into this
  evening.

- Unsettled weather pattern returns late weekend into early next
  week, with the potential for additional minor flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

This afternoon a vort max is rounding a upper level trough that is
located over the Great Lakes and moving into the local area. this
feature will have the chance to produce a few showers and perhaps a
isolated thunderstorm across northern Missouri through the evening
hours. Tomorrow the area will be under northwest flow aloft as a
surface ridge skirts by the western CWA. This will keep temperatures
seasonable in the low to mid 70s. Saturday, a low amplitude
shortwave trough will build into the region in response to a upper
level trough moving from the Great Basin into the western Rockies.
This will occur as a surface ridge axis moves across the CWA. In
concert, these two feature will allow temperatures to rise into the
mid to upper 70s. Saturday night into Sunday this feature will move
from the western Rockies as a closed into the western Plains
becoming a open wave. Lead shortwaves and WAA will allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s.
Sunday night into Monday the upper level trough will move out into
the central Plains becoming a slower moving closed wave. This will
continue shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. Monday
night into Tuesday a nearly stacked low will move through the CWA
and east of the area continuing shower chances. All told, the area
is expected another 0.50"-1.50" which given antecedent wet
conditions could cause minor flooding. Highs Monday and Tuesday
will be in the low to mid 70s. A brief period of dry weather is
expect Tuesday night into Wednesday until another upper level trough
digs through the Rockies into the western Plains forcing a cold
front into the area Wednesday night into Thursday bringing another
round of showers and thunderstorms. Highs Wednesday will be in the
mid to upper 70s Wednesday before cooling a few degrees behind the
front on Thursday as highs hold in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Diurnal cumulus coverage
should quickly dissipate around sunset, along with wind speeds
relaxing. Similar pattern for Friday, with afternoon cumulus and
an increase in wind speeds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Blair