Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 270859
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
459 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NW GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA FOR SUNDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED ALONG ROUGHLY A COLUMBUS TO ATHENS LINE
AT THIS HOUR WITH MID 40S MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE
WHILE LOWER TO MID 60S REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. SEEING
PRECIPITATION AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BEING MODERATE SHOWERS IN WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD AND JUST LIGHT RAIN
IN COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. NO THUNDER NOTED FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL GENERALLY JUST CARRY -SHRA FOR THE
INITIALIZED GRID SET THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...NOT READY TO ENTIRELY GIVE UP ON THUNDER POTENTIAL AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PROGRESSION OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THESE AREAS BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE COMPLETELY.

AS MENTIONED...MODELS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF CLEARING LINE AND
HAVE HELD ONTO POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH EVEN SOME WRAP
AROUND POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...MAIN
ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH LOOKS TO INCREASE TO THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE MAINLY IN GUSTS. LOOKS TO BE JUST SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. FREEZE
PROGRAM DOES NOT START UNTIL APRIL 15TH FOR NE GA SO NO WARNING
THERE BUT WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE NW PORTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE WILL BE CONTINUED MID A HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SO NOT A SLAM DUNK ON THIS ONE BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN
GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO ROLL WITH A WARNING.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKE STATES PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
STILL APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERAL FREEZING LINE RUNNING FROM LAGRANGE IN THE WEST TO AUGUSTA
IN THE EAST. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON JUST HOW LOW THE TEMPS GET FROST CAN ALSO BE A
CONCERN DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH GA SUNDAY MORNING
AS WELL. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. INSTABILITY IS A BIT LOW SO WILL
KEEP JUST SHOWERS...NO THUNDER. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING
EAST OUT OF TX TUE AND PUSHING INTO GA WED. THE GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE
SAME GENERAL PATTERN. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS IN WED THROUGH
FRIDAY BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER OUT AS INSTABILITIES STAY LOW FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER TO MID WEEK.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN MOST TAF SITES BU
-SHRA CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A MIXED BAG THUS
FAR OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND
WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OVC008 THROUGH 10Z. THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS TRANSITION
TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NW TO 15G25KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  35  56  31 /  60  10   5   5
ATLANTA         58  34  53  33 /  60   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  27  47  26 /  60  20   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    58  34  52  30 /  40   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        64  38  59  36 /  60   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     58  33  53  31 /  60   5   5   5
MACON           66  38  59  33 /  60   0   0   5
ROME            57  34  52  29 /  20   5   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  34  55  31 /  60   5   5   5
VIDALIA         69  41  62  36 /  60   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...DADE...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...
HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...MADISON...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...WALKER...
WALTON...WARREN...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FLOYD...GORDON...
MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE


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