Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 281136
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
736 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017/
SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Old frontal boundary has become stationary across portions of
northern GA this morning. Low clouds and fog have also developed
across the CWFA this morning, with the thickest cloud cover and
lowest visibilities closest to the old boundary.
Will have to watch visibilities this morning. The developing stratus
should help keep most vsbys above a mile. However, some patchy dense
fog is possible, especially in low lying areas, near creeks or
streams or even where it rained heavily and the stratus deck is
slightly thinner. Only isolated vsbys less than a mile are noted in
the obs. Values are frequently bouncing above and below a mile. If
vsbys values below a mile become more widespread and 1/4mile values
begin to show up and stay, either a Dense Fog Advisory may be
Low clouds and fog should begin to burn off shortly after sunrise,
but it may take until the mid to late morning before prolonged peeks
of sunshine start to break through. Precipitation chances remain
small today, and mainly centered near the old frontal boundary. Good
instability is forecast for the afternoon, but little forcing at the
surface or aloft is noted. So, only isolated storms are expected and
should be mostly diurnal in nature.
Isolated shra/tsra are possible again on Sunday in the vicinity of
the old boundary.
LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
Medium range models in relatively good agreement through the period,
at least with respect to the large-scale patterns. Two main focal
points for organized, widespread, beneficial precipitation centered
on late Sunday/early Monday and again late in the work week.
System moving in late Sunday still showing some potential for strong
to severe thunderstorms. Models continue to weaken the instability as
the system moves across, but also continue to show a decent shot of
low-level and deeper-layer shear. These elements still not aligning
all that great but they do merit watching closely. Timing is a little
later than previous runs with best forcing/instability/shear not
pushing into the far west until closer to 12Z Monday.
Late week system also showing up currently as somewhat lacking in
instability, but this is quite a ways out in the model run and the
surface and upper-level forcing are showing enough potential to keep
an eye on this system as well.
Time periods between these systems show a general flow pattern
supporting some isolated to scattered, mainly diurnal, convection
IFR cigs are a pretty thin deck. Have sped up the breaking up of
the deck by a few hours. ATL should be sct MVFR very quickly. SCT
MVFR for the remainder of the afternoon and well into the evening
hours. Models are showing some low level moisture around for early
tomorrow morning, but not confident enough to go bkn. Winds will
flirt with due south today and will probably flip flop between 170
and 190 for much of the day. Do think that early this evening that
we will finally flip over to the se.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on winds. High confidence remaining
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 85 66 88 66 / 20 5 20 20
Atlanta 84 68 86 69 / 20 5 20 10
Blairsville 79 62 83 62 / 20 20 30 30
Cartersville 84 66 87 67 / 20 10 20 10
Columbus 87 70 88 70 / 20 5 20 5
Gainesville 82 65 85 66 / 20 10 30 30
Macon 89 67 89 67 / 20 5 20 10
Rome 84 66 88 67 / 20 10 20 10
Peachtree City 84 65 87 66 / 20 5 20 10
Vidalia 92 70 90 68 / 10 5 10 5