Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 301128 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
HAS SET UP ACROSS THAT REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DOWN THERE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS HEATING HELPS TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DO WE SEE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SPREADING SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR INTO THAT AREA BEFORE TOO MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THIS SEEMS A
BIT PREMATURE. I WILL BE CARRYING A GRADIENT IN MY POP GRIDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT I AM GOING TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE TENNESSEE LINE. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. I HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW LIKELY EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE WEAK EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES BY FRIDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON
SOUTHWARD.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH TODAY AS
WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
KEEPING THE AREA JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

20

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY... WITH A DRIER
NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...
BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH WEAK
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS RELIEF MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH
14Z...MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY MOST AREAS AFTER 14Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 16Z-00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. WILL TEMPO THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  91  69 /  40  30  20  10
ATLANTA         92  72  90  71 /  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  64  87  61 /  40  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  91  67 /  40  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        94  75  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     92  72  90  70 /  40  30  10  10
MACON           94  74  93  72 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            92  69  91  66 /  30  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         95  76  93  74 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20



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