Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 111132
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
532 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

At 08z...An arctic front had pushed through northwest Nebraska,
including Ainsworth, Thedford, and Alliance. some weak radar returns
behind this front. Although no light snow reported in the panhandle
or northwest Nebraska, some flurries may be occurring. The coldest
area temperatures were 7 at Pine Ridge and 12 at Valentine. Where
the front just passed, Ogallala briefly has risen to 37 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Today...A weak mid level disturbance will cross the Northern and
Central Plains. This will bring colder air southward, although the
coldest air will remain across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota.
Temperatures in the southeast panhandle and southwest should recover
into the lower to mid 30s with increasing sunshine in the afternoon.
The coldest temperatures will be across the northeast zones, where
much of Keya Paha, Boyd and northern Holt counties will only reach
the lower 20s. Went colder than MOS Guidance and closer to
deterministic model blends.

A slight chance for light snow will carry over from the predawn
hours until mid morning from the southeast panhandle into the far
southwestern zones until 15z. Otherwise dry conditions can be
expected.

Tonight...Behind the departing mid level disturbance, Skies will be
partly cloudy overnight as surface high pressure pushes south and
east of the forecast area. with winds light west to southwest, a
weak downslope develops with lows near to slightly above normal.
Lows mainly from the mid to upper teens, except near 10 above far
northeast zones. Synoptically, the upper flow will be fairly zonal
across the Continental U.S., except for a deep polar low across
north central Canada, and a very cold airmass across the central
Canadian Prairies.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Surface high pressure continues to build across the central US for
Monday and Tuesday resulting in dry conditions. Temperatures rise
above freezing for locations south of highway 2/highway 91 on
Monday, whereas locations north of this line will see temperatures
in the low 30s. Much cooler temperatures return on Tuesday as an
upper level low over northern Manitoba push colder arctic air into
the central US. High temperatures on Tuesday only rise into the mid
to upper 20s.

A quick moving disturbance arrives on Tuesday night resulting in
some snow chances across the eastern panhandle and southwest
Nebraska. Snow accumulations are expected to be under a half inch in
these locations. A brief dry period will occur on Wednesday before
the next weather systems arrive. A shortwave coming off the Rocky
Mountains brings a chance of snow to most of central Nebraska on
Thursday with light accumulations (under an inch).

A stronger developing low pressure system tracks across the central
Plains on Friday and into Saturday. This system will bring a better
chance of accumulating snow to the area. While this system still has
some uncertainties in the track and strength, current trends are
indicating that snow accumulations could total in the 1-3 inch range
across the forecast area. However, this will likely change over the
next couple days as the system continues to get sampled.

High pressure returns for next weekend, with frigid temperatures
returning to the region. After highs in the low to mid 20s all week,
high temperatures for most locations remain in the single digits on
Saturday, with locations south of the I-80 corridor only seeing high
temperatures near 10-15 degrees. Low temperatures also take a dive,
with lows in the single digits on Friday night and lows easily
ranging from 0 degrees to 12 below. Wind chills both nights will be
in the 10 below to 20 below range. Will have to see if wind chill
advisories will be necessary for the end of the week as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Current MVFR ceilings near ovc015 are forecast to become VFR by
15z, while VFR conditions should continue to persist at KLBF.
Northwest winds may gust up to 19kts this morning at both airport
terminals.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Ice jamming has been occurring near Lewellen on the
North Platte River. The ice jamming has not caused any flooding with
levels generally just near action stage. Further downstream, near
North Platte, a Flood Advisory remains in effect. River levels
readings are fluctuating, but have mainly remained near 6.4 feet
near the Highway 83 bridge. The temperature forecast this week calls
for conditions favorable for further ice jamming.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Roberg



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