Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 302033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Another active night across portions of central Nebraska.
Precipitation is expected to start in the north between 6pm and 8pm
before sliding to the southeast as it develops into the next MCS
towards daybreak. As has been the trend over the last several days,
current model runs are inconsistent in the timing and placement of
this system. Most models are indicating convection not starting
until after 00Z Sunday (7pm), though, so confidence in start times
is fairly good. With the better instability to the east and south,
confidence in the track of the highest/greatest chance of showers
and thunderstorms (regardless of the inconsistency in the models) is
fairly good as well. This track will keep areas to the southwest
(south and west of a line extending from southern Garden county to
western Frontier county) dry for most of the night. Will keep just a
slight chance across this portion of the CWA to account for a
lingering shower. Overnight lows will be warmer than the last few
nights with lows in the mid-60s.

By 12Z Sunday, the developing MCS will be to the southeast of our
CWA allowing a brief dry period to return for Sunday as a weak upper
level ridge builds across the central US. Dry weather will only last
through mid-afternoon as the next shortwave approaches from the west
by early evening. Have included slight chance pops to the forecast
across the extreme western counties (Sheridan down to Chase) as this
system works into the Nebraska panhandle. A warming trend begins
again on Sunday with highs rising up into the upper 80s to low 90s
west of US-83 and mid to upper 80s east of US-83.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Long term solutions seem reasonable while near term still having
timing problems with waves moving over the ridge and into western
Nebraska. Sunday night as ridge continues to sharpen over the
northern plains and upper closed low crosses the Canadian Rockies
an mid level wave will spread east across the northern plains with
convection firing off the front range of the Rockies and then
spreading east across the eastern plains of Wyoming and Colorado.
Upslope flow will continue over western Nebraska with best
dynamics for thunderstorm enhancement over northwest zones Sunday
evening. Storms will spread east overnight on the nose of a
diffuse broad 30kt llj. Temperatures holding fairly steady in the
mid to upper 60s with the mixed layer. Unsettled weather over the
forecast area with on and off again thunderstorm chances with
zonal flow aloft and a second closed low moves into the Pacific
northwest. Subtle impulses with mainly afternoon and evening trw
and temperatures in the mid 90s. Better chances return as cool
front moves through Thursday on the backside of upper low over
central Canada and draws cooler air into the northern plains.
Cooler Friday with highs in the 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

VFR conditions will continue at both TAF sites through
this afternoon. Thunderstorms will begin to develop shortly after
00Z Sunday starting first in the north. Expecting showers to be very
isolated and therefore have only included a vicinity thunderstorm
mention in the KVTN TAF starting around 9 to 10 PM. Showers will
then drift southeastward and for the most part are expected to miss
KLBF. No storm mention has been included at KLBF at this time. Storm
should quickly move southeastward and exit the area by 08-10Z.
Broken skies will remain over KLBF a little longer than at KVTN,
allowing KVTN to return to VFR conditions by 07Z. KLBF will
eventually return to VFR conditions by 13Z Sunday.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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