Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 260431 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1131 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

H5 hand analysis this morning had a continuation of the
pattern seen for the past several days. A closed low was present off
the coast of Washington state while another low was present over
eastern Quebec. A trough of low pressure extended to the southwest
of the eastern Pacific low, while a trough of low pressure extended
south from the eastern Canada low into New England and the Canadian
Maritimes. Across the central CONUS, a ridge of high pressure
extended from the central plains north into northern portions of
Saskatchewan. Broad west southwest flow extended to the California
coast from the central part of the country. Within this flow, a
tandem of shortwaves were noted from northern Arizona into
southwestern Wyoming. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
extended across the panhandle into northeastern Colorado this
afternoon. East of this feature, southeasterly and easterly winds
were present. Low clouds and fog have been slow to burn off this
afternoon across southwestern Nebraska and as of 3 PM CDT, was still
present across portions of Lincoln, Custer, Logan, Hayes and
Frontier counties. Further west, a shroud of mid and high level
clouds have pushed into western Nebraska in association with the two
shortwaves over the intermountain west. Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT
ranged from 56 degrees at North Platte to 77 at Ogallala.


Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

A persistent bank of dense fog has formed in the Platte Valley
east of North Platte. The fog could last all night as a front
moves very slowly east. A dense fog advisory is in place for
Lincoln County until 7 am CDT. This would only affect areas east
of North Platte.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Warm front will continue to lift across the area. A weak trough will
move across the area this evening. A few radar returns across
northwest Nebraska however nothing expected to reach the ground, due
to a dry mid layer. As the wave moves east expect better moisture
through the column with the chance for thundershowers across the far
eastern zones, mainly eastern Boyd and Holt, and Wheeler counties.
Capes values are positive and LI`s are neg, although the best
forcing is east of the CWA. There is a chance the showers could
develop east of the zones and will keep pops low.

Overnight some drier air will spread across the area allowing for
temps to fall into the 40s, some 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Also
with the drier air advecting into the area, the models have little
if any fog threat.

Tomorrow with mostly sunny skies from the get go, highs into the
upper 60s to upper 70s. Winds behind the trough will be
north/northwesterly around 15 mph or less.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Mid range...Wednesday night through Friday...Temperatures are the
main forecast challenge in the mid range. Ridging aloft will begin
to build into the Rockies, then Central Plains during the period.
H85 temps will increase into the upper teens Thursday, followed by
the lower to middle 20s for Thursday. MEX and EC MOS forecast temps
for Thursday and Friday are in decent agreement ATTM and have
trended highs warmer from the super blend forecast. Confidence in
warmer temps Friday is strong ATTM as a cold front will approach the
northwestern forecast area Friday evening. We tend to warm quickly
ahead of these fronts, especially with westerly and southwesterly
winds expected ahead of the front. For both Thursday and Friday,
highs were warmed above the superblend forecast based on expected
southwesterly and westerly downsloping winds, along with decent
model agreement on H85 temps both days. For North Platte, highs
Thursday and Friday are 81 and 82 respectively. Record highs
Thursday and Friday are 85 and 87 for North Platte.

Friday Night through Tuesday...A cold front will track across
western and north central Nebraska late Friday night into Saturday.
Winds will be gusty with the FROPA Friday night, so lows will be
mild Friday night with readings mainly in the middle 40s. Cold air
advection will continue into Saturday with highs generally in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure will build into the eastern
Dakotas and upper midwest for Saturday night. With drier air in
place, lows will bottom out in the 30s. For Sunday, a surface trough
of low pressure will deepen across the high plains of eastern
Wyoming and Colorado. Southerly winds will increase ahead of this
feature Sunday, which will push warmer air back into the region from
the south. Highs Sunday will be in the 70s. On Sunday night, a
second cold front will track across the forecast area, winds will
remain on the breezy side with the exiting front, so lows Sunday
night will be mild with readings in the 40s. High pressure will
build in behind the front Monday into Monday night with highs monday
in the 70s and lows Monday night in the 30s. Based on the expected
degree of dry air in association with the surface high, lows will
decreased below the superblend to better reflect the statistical


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Local LIFR conditions in the Platte valley from KLBF east could
persist for several hours given the moisture trapped in the valley
and strong radiational cooling ongoing. The VFR forecast at KLBF
at 09z is a guess. None of the 12 models and datasets this
afternoon showed the fog forming and the current model runs
immediately disperse it.

VFR is expected all areas from 15z Wednesday through Wednesday
evening. Patchy valley fog and Local LIFR is expected overnight
east of highway 83 through 15z Wednesday.


Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Warming temperatures continue through the work week. By Thursday and
Friday with temperatures well above normal fire weather conditions
will be elevated. Will continue to monitor but at this time while RH
values may fall to around 15 to 20 percent, winds look to remain
less than 20 mph.


Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ059.



LONG TERM...Buttler
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