Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 021814
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1114 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR LOOP
SHOWS A FEW WEAK CELLS OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME HEADING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES OR
FLASHES DETECTED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
HAS BACKED OFF A BIT A BIT ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTH AND SF BAY PLUS THE CITY. WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE THIS
MORNING TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NORTH BAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATE LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE STABLE. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY INLAND TOWARD SALINAS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST. AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL
STRATUS. NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...ALL TERMINALS HAVE NOW
GONE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT ALL SPOTS ALTHOUGH WOULD FAVOR NORTH AND EAST
BAY AFTER 0Z. CIGS FORECAST TO RETURN TONIGHT AT OR UNDER 010
FEET. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.
CIGS POSSIBLY UNDER 010 BY 12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... VFR THROUGH 02Z WITH A PASSING
SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE. CIGS LOWERING AFTER THAT POINT POTENTIALLY
TO 003 AFTER 05Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION: CW/BELL
MARINE: CW

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