Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291753
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1053 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY
AREA WITH NO BIG CHANGES INTO MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY USHERING IN A
NOTED COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S WELL
INLAND ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
HILLS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:21 AM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING EXCEPT A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS INSIDE
MONTEREY BAY AND ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST WHERE HALF MOON BAY IS
REPORTING AN 800 FOOT CLOUD DECK. CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 5-6 MB NORTHERLY GRADIENT DOWN THE COAST WITH
6 MB OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PRODUCING GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SST HAVE DROPPED NOTICEABLY THE
LAST FEW DAYS AND 24 HOURS WITH BODEGA BAY BUOY DOWN TO 52
DEGREES. THAT`S THE COLDEST ITS BEEN SINCE AROUND THE 4TH OF JULY.
EVEN THE SAN FRANCISCO BUOY IS DOWN TO 53 DEGREES SO WERE FINALLY
SEEING THE EFFECTS OF SOME LOCAL UP-WELLING. THE SURFACE PATTERN
THIS WEEK WILL KEEP PERIODS OF VERY STRONG WINDS HOWLING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SO EXPECT NO RECOVERY IN SST.

ON LAND TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
COOL 60S WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE WELL DEVELOPED
OVER THE OCEAN AND ALONG THE COAST.

BY TUESDAY A SPRING LIKE DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE FELT AT THE COAST AND
INLAND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
BUT A BITING WIND WILL BE FELT OFF THE WATER AND IN THE HILLS AS
THE AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COOL
ADVECTION AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE COOL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND BY
THURSDAY SETTING UP A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF OFFSHORE WIND FLOW. SUNNY AND
SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT WITH IDEAL SPRING
WEATHER TO FINISH UP THE WORK WEEK.

THE LONG RANGE FORECAST IS PIQUING INTEREST WITH SEASONABLY COOL
BUT DRY WEATHER LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

THERE IS SOME HINT FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY
BUT NOT SURPRISINGLY THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
NAILING DOWN THE DETAILS. THE PNA TELECONNECTION IS FORECAST TO GO
STRONGLY NEGATIVE BY EARLY APRIL SO AT THE VERY LEAST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ASIDE FROM LINGERING STRATUS OVER
THE MONTEREY BAY. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST REGION- WIDE
WITH AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY UP
THROUGH THE NORTH BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO THE 12-20KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING. POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LOW
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z-16Z TUESDAY...YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
CLEARING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12KTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS LIKELY TO RETURN AFTER 10Z
TUESDAY WITH LOWERING VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:03 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP FRESH SWELLS AND SHORT
PERIOD SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

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