Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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168
FXUS66 KMTR 131643
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
843 AM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WARM WEATHER TO RETURN TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE IN
VALLEY/COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND
FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LARGE LONG-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT AREA
BEACHES...INCLUDING SNEAKER WAVES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:43 AM PST SATURDAY...DENSE FOG REPORTS
STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION BUT FOG IS DISSIPATING. WILL PLAN
TO LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 9 AM. THEN SKIES TURN MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY SETTING UP A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MODERATE
STRENGTH NORTHEAST WINDS IN AREA HILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500 FEET. DONT EXPECT TOO MUCH WIND TO
MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AND
OFFSHORE WIND ALONG WITH WARMING AIRMASS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEK...MONDAY IS LOOKING EVEN WARMER WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL WITH NOT TOO
MUCH CHANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDS WILL BE TRANSITION DAY WITH TROUGH APPROACHING LEADING TO
COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME RAIN LIKELY BY WEDS NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE QUICK MOVING WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN TURNS DRY
AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...SATELLITE AND OBS SHOWS
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY EXPECT THE FOG TO BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST WITH PARTY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL LOCATIONS. ONE
MINOR DIFFERENCE FROM FRIDAY IS THE ADDITION OF FOG FOR SOME
INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. OBS INDICATE THAT FOG HAS MOVED INTO PART
OF NORTH BAY, SF BAY, SANTA CLARA VALLEY, AND SALINAS VALLEY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS GOES OVERHEAD AND BOTH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS PEAK.
MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF FROM THE 500 MB HEIGHTS, WITH 850
MB TEMPS STILL FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 17C. THEREFORE, FORECAST
HIGHS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWERED. HOWEVER, STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW
RECORD HIGHS MAY BE SET.

AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM READINGS ON TUESDAY, COOLER WEATHER
WILL RETURN BACK TO OUR REGION AS A LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES TO THE
COAST. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DISCUSSIONS, THE
OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND FROM FAIRLY WET TO MOSTLY
DRY WHILE THE OTHER MODELS PLUS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN MORE BULLISH
WITH RAIN CHANCES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND WITH THE 06Z
GFS NOW FAVORING RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THEREFORE, POPS WERE
INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1/2" TO 1" FOR THE COASTAL
HILLS WITH 1/4" TO 1/2" FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. START TIME WILL
BE LATE ON WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN
FORECAST TO FALL ON THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE GOING
INTO FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:50 AM PST SATURDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER INLAND AREAS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN
SLANT- WISE VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...AS A RESULT OF
HAZY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO....IFR CIGS WILL COME IN AND OUT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AROUND 16Z. MODERATE WEST
WINDS WILL EASE THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TILL AROUND 17Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY
FEBRUARY 14 THROUGH TUESDAY FEBRUARY 16. THE RECORD HIGH IS LISTED
FOR EACH DAY ALONG WITH THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS SET (IF THE RECORD
WAS SET ON MORE THAN ONE YEAR...THE MOST RECENT YEAR IS LISTED).

                          SUNDAY         MONDAY         TUESDAY
LOCATION                  FEB 14         FEB 15         FEB 16

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD               84/1930        79/1930        77/1930
  SAN RAFAEL              78/1977        78/1977        77/1977
  NAPA                    81/1930        81/1943        81/1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN  78/1930        76/1930        75/1930
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT   74/1977        75/2015        69/2007
  OAKLAND MUSEUM          80/1977        80/2015        75/2015
  OAKLAND AIRPORT         72/2013        73/1977        73/1977
  RICHMOND                77/1977        75/1977        75/2015
  LIVERMORE               79/1977        80/1933        78/1977
  MOFFETT FIELD           82/1977        79/1977        73/1977
  SAN JOSE                80/1930        80/1930        78/1930
  GILROY                  80/1996        81/1991        81/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                81/1943        79/1977        73/2013
  SANTA CRUZ              82/2015        82/1916        85/1930
  SALINAS                 83/2015        81/2013        80/1977
  SALINAS AIRPORT         84/2015        81/2015        77/2013
  KING CITY               85/1977        86/1977        90/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:24 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO THROUGH TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALONG COAST TIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: DYKEMA


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