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000
FXUS64 KSJT 221734
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The cumulus field continues to develop this afternoon and will
persist at 5-7 kft through late afternoon with skies becoming mostly
clear thereafter. Light southeast to east winds at generally 10 kts
or less will continue through this evening, becoming light and
variable overnight and early Wednesday. There may be some brief MVFR
visibilities between 3-5 miles at KSOA, KJCT, and/or KBBD, but any
impacts will be minor. Like yesterday, there is a possibility of an
an isolated shower or two this afternoon, but coverage will be
extremely limited no mention will be made in the TAFs.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Patchy light fog will be possible through sunrise across the
southern terminals with visibilities around 5SM, otherwise VFR
conditions will continue at all TAF sites through tonight.
Winds will be light, generally 10 mph or less the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Hot and dry weather will continue for West Central Texas as the
subtropical ridge strengthens a bit more across the southern
Rockies today. Abundant high level clouds from earlier
convection across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles is streaming
in from the north early this morning. These clouds will thin
during the day but may offset warming a degree or two across
mainly the northern counties today. Latest MOS guidance is coming
in 1 to 2 degrees cooler across this area as well. Given the
strength of the upper high and expected thinning of the cirrus
shield, will keep temperatures slightly above guidance numbers.
Surface winds this afternoon will be light and will have more of
an easterly component compared to yesterday, which may also be
enough to spare us a degree for afternoon highs. Expect
temperatures for the most part to be very similar to yesterday,
with highs this afternoon topping out in the upper 90s to around
100 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

Above normal temperatures can be expected through this weekend,
with a possible pattern change early next week. An upper level
high will remain centered across New Mexico/Colorado through this
weekend, resulting in highs generally in the 98 to 103 range, with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. The one caveat, is a TUTT
that is forecast to move into South Texas on Thursday, then into
northern Mexico Friday. On this track, this feature would increase
moisture across at least the southern half of the area, and
decrease heights. This would result in slightly cooler
temperatures, and temperatures were tended down a couple
degrees, mainly across the southern half of the area. An isolated
shower or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but for now PoPs were
left below 15 percent.

Models have come into better agreement in the development of a
potent upper level trough across much of the Great Lakes/Midwest
region, early next week. This helps to displace the upper level
ridge to the west, centering across Arizona. In addition, a weak
cold front is forecast to move into the region on Tuesday. A lot
of uncertainty remains on the evolution of this upper level
trough, but confidence is increasing that at least slightly cooler
temperatures and increased rain chances will be possible next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  74  99  74 100 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  99  73 100  71 101 /   5   0   5   5  10
Junction  98  72  98  71  98 /   5   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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