Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 292341
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN, IT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND 00Z. THUS, NO POPS WERE
INCLUDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY LATE EVENING, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASING BY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON PAR
WITH PERSISTENCE, GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. BY FAR, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. THAT SAID, IN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS (MAY) DEVELOP, THERE IS A MICROBURST POTENTIAL
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES.

JOHNSON

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS ARKANSAS, WILL REPOSITION ITSELF
TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FRONT`S ARRIVAL DIFFERS AMONGST
THE VARIOUS MODELS, BUT BELIEVE THE ECMWF`S FASTER SOLUTION IS THE
CLOSEST TO THE TRUTH, AS THE FRONTAL PUSH WILL BE AIDED DAILY BY
CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON
COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CONCHO
VALLEY/HEARTLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
THE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ITSELF WASHES OUT, THERE`S A SEMBLANCE OF A
CONVERGENCE AXIS (LIKELY WHAT`S LEFT OF THE FRONT)BISECTING THE
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR OUR RAINFALL CHANCES IN TERMS OF
AREAL COVERAGE. ON SUNDAY, THAT SAME AXIS/BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AND
TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW, POPS
WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SATURDAY, AND ADDED TO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS ALSO
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE STATE, ENDING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES AS
DRIER WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  74 /  10   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  75 100  72 /   5   0   5   5
JUNCTION 100  75  99  71 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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