Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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310
FXUS64 KSJT 310421
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1121 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

All of the showers have dissipated earlier this evening. May see
MVFR Cigs develop across KJCT and KSOA tonight. A few showers and
possibly a thunderstorm will be possible again tomorrow during the
afternoon and early evening as an area of weak upper level low
pressure meanders across the region. Any one of these showers and
storms can produce gusty winds and lightning. VFR conditions
should prevail after 15z at all TAF sites. The probability is too
low to include the mention of thunderstorms in the TAFs.

26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

UPDATE...
For minor adjustment to weather grids...

DISCUSSION...
Current radar trends continue to indicate isolated showers and
thunderstorms across parts of the Concho Valley. In addition,
other showers and thunderstorms were located across the South
Plains and were slowly building southeast, which may move into
parts of the northern Big Country. Most of this activity will
slowly begin to dissipate over the next 1 to 2 hours, but the
isolated shower and thunderstorm mention was extended through
03z. The main concern with these showers and thunderstorms will be
brief heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm are trying to approach
KSJT and KBBD. Main concern is microburst potential. Radar is
showing 25kts so far. Have inserted VRB25G35KT to both TAF sites
mentioned above. It is also possible any of the showers could
become a CB/Thunderstorm. Will continue to monitor closely and
update TAFs accordingly. These showers should dissipate by 02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

A diurnal cumulus field has developed, but no showers or
thunderstorms have developed yet this afternoon over our area.
Since the possibility cannot be ruled out entirely, leaving the
10 PoPs with isolated mention in the forecast until 7 PM. Mostly
clear skies are expected tonight, with light southeast winds. The
12Z GFS and NAM show overnight increase in boundary layer RH similar
to what occurred early this morning in the southern part of our
area. With these indications, patchy low cloud development looks
possible along parts of the I-10 corridor early Sunday morning.

A scattered diurnal cumulus field should develop by midday Sunday,
but with airmass is progged to be a little drier in the afternoon,
not anticipating shower/thunderstorm development in our area. With
the slight increase in 850mb temperatures, highs on Sunday should be
a bit warmer than today, perhaps a degree or two.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
The weak upper trough or shear axis over west Texas will continue
to weaken through the week as an upper ridge to the east builds
back into the area. Will see temperatures climbing back above
normal to around 100 degrees for many areas through mid week with
drier conditions and very little to no rain. Will be watching the
tropics for the very end of the forecast period to see if any
tropical development will bring more moisture and a chance of rain
back into the forecast for the area. A lot can happen between now
and next weekend, so will not include any precipitation for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  98  77  99 /  10   5   5   0
San Angelo  74  99  75  99 /  10  10   5   5
Junction  74  97  74  96 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

26/14



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