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000
FXUS64 KSJT 080012
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
612 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail through 06Z tonight. Moisture will be
drawn northward overnight, likely resulting in MVFR CIGS impacting
the KBBD/KJCT/KSOA sites after 09Z Saturday morning. A cold front
will move through the area tomorrow morning, hitting KABI before
12Z, KSJT around 12Z, the southern sites mainly by 15Z. Gusty
north winds will continue through the rest of the day following
the cold front, and CIGS are expected to lift to greater than 3
thousand feet during the afternoon hours. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Westerly flow aloft over Texas will become southwest by Saturday, as
a positively tilted upper trough develops across New Mexico and
southeastern Arizona. Gusty south-southwest winds this afternoon and
early evening will decrease early tonight. Surface cold front will
move south into our northern counties after Midnight, and across the
rest of our area Saturday morning. Behind this front, temperatures
will be much cooler Saturday with increased cloud cover. Based on
12Z model indications with limited moisture across our area, trimmed
rain chances back a bit further on Saturday. A few light rain
showers are possible along and just behind the front (Saturday
morning) across the area roughly southeast of a Sonora to Brownwood
line. Expect any amounts to be less than one tenth of an inch.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next week)

Upper level low spends several days spinning away southwest of the
Big Bend area, before finally weakening and pushing east across
Central Texas. Given the track, both the GFS and ECMWF keep the rain
chances south of the area through Monday. Some of the showers may
just clip the southeast counties near Mason and Junction on Monday
afternoon, but would be brief and light. Otherwise, looks like a dry
forecast will continue.

Continued cool behind the Saturday cold front for Sunday, but winds
begin to switch around to the south. Warmer on Monday and Tuesday
with highs in the 70s and 80s. Next front arrives midweek, with
cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week.

Fire Weather...

Despite the warm temperatures and gusty south-southwest winds, the
extent of elevated fire weather conditions today has been reduced
somewhat by increased dewpoints and relative humidity values. The
main area of focus this afternoon is northwest of a Throckmorton to
Brownwood to San Angelo line. Fire weather conditions will ease this
evening with cooling temperatures, increasing relative humidities
and gradually decreasing wind speeds.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of
West Central Texas on Tuesday of next week, when increased southwest
to west winds and warm temperatures are forecast to be combined with
an intrusion of very dry air.

The next cold frontal passage is forecast to occur on Tuesday night,
with gusty north winds following its passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  45  52  31  59  42 /  10  10  20  10   5
San Angelo  47  55  35  60  37 /  10  10  20  20  10
Junction  53  59  38  56  34 /   5  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$