Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 092040
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
(Tonight and Saturday)
A cold front continues to make progress to the south through west
central TX this afternoon. As of 3 PM the front is south of I-20,
leaving in its wake north winds of 10-20 mph and temperatures in the
low/mid 70s. Scattered showers will continue to trail the front this
afternoon, eventually dissipating around sunset. Instability is
limited and no lightning has been observed this afternoon, but a few
weak thunderstorms aren`t out of the question. Isolated showers were
maintained through 10 PM. Expect winds to become light and variable
by late evening, with mid-level cloud cover thinning from north to
south overnight. The coolest temperatures tonight are expected north
of I-20, where the mercury could briefly dip into the upper 50s.
Otherwise, expect overnight lows in the lower 60s.
Dry weather is anticipated for Saturday with temperatures rebounding
back into the low to mid 80s. A few of the hi-res CAMS were
indicating isolated showers Saturday afternoon, but this has
typically been overdone in cases of weak forcing and limited
instability. We`ll more than likely only see a scattered cu field.
Winds will veer around the dial tomorrow, becoming southeasterly by
early afternoon and remaining under 10 mph.
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Very warm temperatures are expected for our area Sunday with mostly
sunny skies, south-southwest winds and 850mb thermal ridge building
into our area. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower
to mid 90s, and favor the warmer GFS MOS guidance.
An upper trough will move through the Midwest and into the Great
Lakes on Monday, with trailing portion of associated cold front
moving south across West Central Texas. Timing of the front will
have an effect on high temperatures. This front should arrive
soon enough in the day to limit high temperatures to the mid to
upper 80s across our northern counties, with lower 90s expected
for the southern part of our area. Surface pressure rise field
indicated behind this front suggests several hours of gusty
north-northeast winds following its passage Monday afternoon into
Monday night. Cooler air will follow passage of this front, but
will be short-lived.
Warm and dry conditions are indicated Wednesday through Friday of
next week for our area. An upper level ridge is progged to be
centered over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. on
Wednesday, and to subsequently shift east over Texas on Friday.
For that time period, high temperatures expected to be around 10
degrees above normal.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 60 84 65 94 / 5 0 0 0
San Angelo 62 86 63 95 / 10 5 0 0
Junction 63 87 64 93 / 10 5 5 5