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000
FXUS64 KSJT 020526
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1126 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

LIFR ceilings will continue through Monday morning with
improvement into IFR midday. KABI may see CIGS temporarily
rise to MVFR in the late afternoon and early evening. Freezing
drizzle is expected to affect KABI through mid morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LIFR conditions expected into Monday morning, with CIGS below
airport minimums at KBBD, KJCT and KSOA. IFR stratus will likely
continue at KSOA into the afternoon. A slow increase in ceilings
expected by midday with more improvement in visibilities as
upslope northeast winds weaken. Occasional freezing drizzle at
KABI as temperatures stay at or just below 32 degrees through 9 AM
Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Extensive cloud cover continues across all of West Central Texas
with most locations in the 30s, except along the Interstate 10
corridor, where temperatures have climbed into the lower 40s.
Overnight, temperatures will drop slowly, with areas of light
rain/drizzle developing by mid to late evening. Temperatures across
much of the Big Country will already be near to just above freezing,
and as temperatures slowly drop to near or below freezing, areas of
light freezing rain/freezing drizzle will develop by late evening.
At this time, impacts look minimal, especially since temperatures
are forecast to remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s for only a
short period of time. Some minor icing of bridges, overpasses and
exposed surfaces will be possible, and this is covered in a Special
Weather Statement. Temperatures should climb back above freezing at
all locations by mid to late morning, with a transition to all
liquid precipitation.

Stratus will once again blanket most of West Central Texas on
Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 30s north, to near 50
across the Interstate 10 corridor. Light rain/drizzle will once
again be possible during the day Monday, especially across the
eastern half of the forecast area.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged. Models
continue to indicate a closed circulation center, to our west,
will be the dominate feature next week. Chance PoPs continue into
Monday night for all of West Central Texas. Then, rebounding
temperatures push afternoon highs back above seasonal normals for
Tuesday. Timing of the next front has increased slightly, as
compared to previous model runs, and now looks likely to move to
our Interstate 20 corridor between midnight Tuesday night and
sunrise Wednesday morning. Also, models continue to present
slightly cooler temperatures for next week, again, as compared to
previous runs. In addition, forecast soundings, from the GFS and
ECMWF, continue to indicate the potential for winter precipitation
beginning Wednesday, for locations mainly along and north of our
Interstate 20 corridor, continuing into Wednesday night for all of
West Central Texas, then for mainly locations south of our
Interstate 20 corridor on Thursday. Confidence remains low
regarding amount of possible winter precipitation accumulations,
as models still appear to be over estimating.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  30  40  39  71  36 /  10  20  40  20  50
San Angelo  34  44  43  75  43 /  10  20  40  10  30
Junction  38  48  46  77  48 /  10  20  40  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04