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000
FXUS64 KSJT 160421
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will remain southerly through the TAF period and will
remain elevated through the afternoon hours gusting from 20 to 30
knots at all terminals. Winds will weaken through the evening hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will dominate the weather at all the TAF sites over
the next 24 hours. The main aviation concern will be strong wind
gusts. South winds sustained near 20 kts are likely, with gusts
near/over 30 kts possible.

Doll

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Quiet weather tonight with surface high pressure moving off to the
east. Light south winds will prevail through the overnight hours,
and we will see warmer overnight lows, only falling into the mid
30s to lower 40s.

A series of shortwaves moving across the Rocky Mtns will cause
surface pressure falls to our northwest. This will result in
increasing wind speeds and warmer temperatures across the entire
area. Expect south winds to increase to 20 to 30 mph by late
morning, with temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Friday/
Aloft, a short wave trough will be moving across Texas Thursday and
Thursday night. At the surface a modified warm sector will be over
West Central Texas. There is potential for a few thunderstorms as a
cool front moves south and will work with weak instability and some
low level moisture. However, looks like most of the activity will be
east of our area and will keep silent pops going for right now.
Also, widespread stratus will cover the area, mainly during the late
night and morning hours, resulting in cool temperatures. Highs will
be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

/Saturday and Sunday/
The better chance of rain will be this weekend and another upper
level trough moves east across the Southern Plains. Going with
chance pops Saturday and Saturday night across much of the area. The
instability(MLCAPES 1000 to 1500 J/KG) will be better this weekend,
so possible better coverage for thunderstorms. The 0-6KM shear may
be lacking some, but a few strong storms are possible. Warmer this
weekend, with highs in the 70s Saturday and 80s Sunday due to mid
and upper subsidence behind the trough and low level downslope flow.
Lows will be in the 50s.

/Monday and Tuesday/
The weather looks mainly dry and quiet for early next week. However,
temperatures will be warm with highs in the 80s and lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will affect the
region on Wednesday with the worst conditions west of a Haskell to
Sonora line. Beyond Wednesday, low level moisture increase will keep
fire weather concerns limited. There is also a chance for showers
and thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  42  72  52  70 /   0   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  66  38  75  52  74 /   0   0   0   5  10
Junction  66  35  73  52  71 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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