Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 220431
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014
NAM and GFS models are not as aggressive with 950 MB moisture
return overnight. Delayed MVFR stratus return along the I-10
corridor until 11Z, and kept only a scattered layer at KSJT
Friday morning. Lee trough will be slightly weaker Friday and
brought down wind gust speeds around 2 KTS.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
Diurnal convection remained to the west of the area again today,
with partly cloudy and hot conditions being the rule across the
CWA. Temperatures topped out in the mid/upper 90s in most
locations, with a few triple digit reports in the northern Big
Country. Areas across the northwest Hill Country that experienced
significant rainfall earlier this week saw temperatures a bit
cooler, with highs in the lower 90s.
The forecast has been updated to remove mention of isolated
thunderstorms across the western half of Crockett County. In
addition, tonight`s min temps were raised a few degrees, more in
line with what we saw this morning. We may see some low clouds
advance north into the southern half of the CWA late tonight, but
any cloud cover will erode by mid-morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
Status with MVFR stratus will again move north into the I-10
corridor early this morning, including the KSOA AND KJCT
terminals. San Angelo should also see MVFR stratus, from daybreak
through mid morning, as low level moisture moves north from the
Lower Rio Grande River Valley. Gusty south winds will affect the
region beginning mid morning Friday, but 2-3 KTS lower than today.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
(Tonight and Friday)
Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the
next 24 hours. An upper level ridge will remain centered across the
lower Mississippi Valley, with its influence extending well into
Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again forecast
to develop across portions of West Texas and eastern New Mexico late
this afternoon and early this evening. Most of this activity is
forecast to remain west of West Central Texas, but isolated showers
and thunderstorms were included for western Portions of Crockett
County. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 70s.
High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 90s across
much of the Big Country and Heartland, to the mid 90s elsewhere.
(Friday night through next Thursday)
A large upper high will be centered over the lower and middle
Mississippi Valley this weekend through early next week, with a
short wave trough lifting north across the central and northern
Rockies over the weekend. Some convective development will be
possible across far west Texas this weekend where stronger southwest
flow aloft exists, but here in West Central Texas dry conditions
will continue with slightly above normal temperatures continuing.
Models show an upper level trough moving across the Rockies and
into the central and northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. This system may drive a weak front in from the north
next Wednesday or Thursday and bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area. Model confidence
regarding this scenario remains low at this time, so will maintain
a dry forecast through the extended period for now.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 76 97 72 96 73 / 5 0 0 5 5
San Angelo 75 96 71 96 72 / 5 5 0 5 5
Junction 74 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 5