Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 212042
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
242 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Precipitation has shifted out of the Big Country this afternoon and
will soon be out of the Heartland as well. Went ahead and ended the
Ice Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory Early and replaced it
with a Special Weather Statement detailing the chance of icy spots
again tonight. The TTU WRF, the HRRR, and the NAM all show a similar
setup tonight, with isentropic lift at least making for the
possibility of some freezing drizzle developing later this evening,
and then scattered showers with freezing rain develop towards
sunrise and spreading northward across West Central Texas late
tonight and into Thursday morning. Shifts this evening or tonight
will need to monitor to see if a new winter weather advisory may be
needed, but with amounts expected to be spotty and light, it may not
be needed.

With clouds in place, temperatures not expected to drop very much
overnight, with readings in the mid 20s across the Big Country to
around 30 across the I-10 corridor. Next shortwave rounds the base
of the main upper level trough and brings lift into the area late
tonight and more into the day on Thursday. Showers become more
widespread starting around sunrise Thursday morning and continuing
into the afternoon. Initially, temperatures will be below freezing
and patchy freezing rain is possible. However, by mid morning
temperatures should be rising to the freezing point and
precipitation should turn to all rain.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

The weather pattern will become drier and warmer by next week...

(Friday through Saturday afternoon)

A stalled frontal boundary will be draped across West Central
Texas during day on Friday. A strong area of high pressure located
in the western Atlantic, will keep a moderate southeasterly flow
across the region. This will help advect Gulf of Mexico moisture
into the region. This moisture plume will interact with the
frontal boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
likely along areas close to where the frontal boundary sets up
during the afternoon and evening. Best chances for precipitation
look to be in the eastern counties along and east of a Mason to
Brownwood line. Rain could be heavy at times, especially in any
thunderstorms that do develop. These rain and thunderstorms will
move off to the east-northeast through the day. Highs on Friday
will be in the mid to upper 50s across the Big Country. Across the
rest of the region, temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.

The next storm system will begin to exit the Rockies and move into
western Kansas Saturday morning. This system will pull a warm
front northward across the area during the morning on Saturday.
Strong southerly flow will develop behind the warm front and ahead
of an approaching cold front. With plenty of moisture and
increasing instability across the region, expect a line of
showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front as it
moves rapidly east through the region. Severe weather is not
expected at this time. We will continue to monitor the development
of this system and update the forecast as needed. The main
concern with the storms could be strong straight-line winds and
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Behind the front, strong
westerly downsloping winds will develop during the late afternoon
and bring in much drier air across the region with dewpoint
values dropping back into the 20s and high teens. Highs on
Saturday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Expect quiet and dry weather through this time period. A weak cold
front will move through the area during the Monday. This front
will only bring a slight dip in high temperatures for Monday.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s with highs in the mid to
upper 60s on Monday. Models do suggest showers and thunderstorms
could return to the forecast by Tuesday ahead of an emerging storm
system across the southern plains. We will monitor the
development of this next storm system as the time period gets
closer. Expect continued warm temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.






&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  27  41  34  56 /  10  60  20  70
San Angelo  29  47  38  65 /  30  50  20  50
Junction  31  51  42  64 /  30  60  40  60
Brownwood  30  43  37  58 /  20  60  40  70
Sweetwater  26  43  35  58 /  10  30   5  40
Ozona       31  52  42  65 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Callahan-
Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Brown-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Irion-Runnels-Sterling-Tom Green.

&&

$$

07/40


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