Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291942
TXZ000-NMZ000-292145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291942Z - 292145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ALSO NEAR PECOS COUNTY.  WITH A SEVERE
THREAT ON THE INCREASE...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...CONTINUED INSOLATION AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
RESULTING IN WEAKENING INHIBITION AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG INSTABILITY /AROUND
3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE/ AND 40-50 KNOTS OF WESTERLY DEEP SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT WEAK AT
THE CURRENT TIME...OWING TO FLOW LESS THAN 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 5 KM ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  THIS WOULD TEND TO FOSTER
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS THAT WILL POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS /I.E. RELATIVELY EARLY IN THEIR LIFE
CYCLE/.

WITH TIME...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MATURE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA...POSSIBLY ENCOUNTERING BOTH
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA/ AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES /ESPECIALLY TOWARD 00Z/.  THESE FACTORS
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT
CAN STAY DISCRETE/ AND A THREAT OF HAIL...WIND...AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   29770150 29830194 29870241 29750273 29620288 29650337
            29970384 30630428 31370460 31960464 32410487 33030452
            33480360 33600256 33610142 33430089 32700063 32320056
            31440046 30620049 30070092 29770150



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