Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 292203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292203
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-292330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292203Z - 292330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THESE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONTAGUE COUNTY IN TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A
TRIPLE POINT AND MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR DYS. THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES/CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. FURTHERMORE...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
FAVOR AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DCAPE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A DOWNBURST. HAIL ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE ISOLATED STORMS AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
8.5 DEG C PER KM WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -15 DEG C.

WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34349675 34579579 34599526 34089448 33409403 32939403
            32539475 32299537 32219646 32429727 32639768 32929799
            33559807 33899780 34189721 34349675



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