Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241703
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN OH...WRN PA...THE NRN WV
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241703Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
VICINITY. LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS -- SOME POSSIBLY APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS -- MAY OCCUR...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
WARM FRONT ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN PA AND NERN OH...WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. BROAD CUMULUS FIELDS SW OF THE WARM FRONT HIGHLIGHT THE
MOIST/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH LITTLE CAPPING...AND GIVEN FORCING FOR ASCENT RELATED TO AN MCV
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CLEVELAND AREA...A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SWD
ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL OHIO...DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED
BAROCLINICITY ON THE EDGE OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS NRN OHIO --
TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD GENERALLY EWD/ESEWD.

WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG CONTINUING TO BUILD NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS MAY EVOLVE. THE CLE VWP SUGGESTS
ONLY AROUND 20 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR PRESENT...THOUGH A FEW
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

GENERALLY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   40098064 40228191 40688315 41058336 41178292 41068169
            41328055 40967941 40267973 40098064



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