455
FXUS61 KALY 171738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
138 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair and dry weather today with
partly to mostly sunny conditions.  Clouds increase tonight with
some isolated to scattered light rain showers mainly west of the
Hudson River Valley ahead of a weakening cold front and an upper
level disturbance.  The first half of the weekend will feature more
clouds than sunshine with isolated to widely scattered showers, but
Sunday will turn dry and pleasant weather with temperatures trending
above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 138 PM EDT...A coastal low continues to slowly spin
offshore the mid Atlantic States for today. Meanwhile, another
upper level disturbance is starting to approach from the west.
Enough upper level ridging and a weak high pressure area
northeast of the area continue to keep dry and quiet weather in
place over the area early this afternoon. Some cloud cover
(mainly mid and high level clouds) has been spreading into the
area from the west. Despite these clouds, most areas are still
partly sunny and valley temps have warmed into the lower to
middle 70s.

Through the afternoon hours, cloud cover will slowly increase.
Visible satellite imagery shows low level clouds increasing from
both the east and south, while mid and high level clouds are
coming in from the west. Skies will generally trend towards
mostly cloudy for late in the day. A few brief sprinkles are
possible across the Adirondacks (perhaps parts of the Mohawk
Valley, Sacandaga Region, and the Saratoga Springs and Glens
Falls areas too), but any precip looks very light and brief.

Max temps were accepted close to the warmer ECM MOS values with
highs in mid and upper 70s in the valleys with a few 80F
readings near KPOU. Mid 60s to lower 70s will be common over
the mountains and hilltowns. The winds will be light from the
east to southeast at 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...An upper level trough and a weak cold front approach
the eastern Great Lakes Region and western NY. Some isolated to
scattered showers with the front and the mid level short-wave
moving towards the southern Quebec will likely impact locations
west of I-87 overnight. The moisture convergence is weak and the
front weakens, so any pcpn will be light and scattered over or
near the southern Dacks, w-central Mohawk Valley, Schoharie
Valley and Catskills. Clouds increase over the rest of the
forecast area with lows falling into the lower to mid 50s with
some 40s over the higher terrain.

The diffuse mid level trough will be near or over the forecast
area on Saturday. The sfc trough/weak cold front will be to the
west. The better short-wave energy digs to the south of the
forecast area over the mid Atlantic States. More clouds than sun
is expected and some light isolated to widely scattered showers
are possible from the Berkshires, Capital Region and eastern
Catskills north and west. Temps were increased above the cooler
MAV/MET MOS numbers closer to the ECM MOS with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s in the lower elevations and 60s over the
mtns.

Saturday Night into Sunday...The guidance is differing slightly
in the evolution of the mid and upper level ridge (Rex Block)
building in from Plains/Midwest into NY/western New England and
the placement of a coastal low. We have gone to a drier trend
still Sat night with variable cloudiness and temps cooling into
the 40s to around 50F over the higher terrain and 50-55F in the
valleys. Heights increase aloft on Sunday with the folding over
ridge into the region. Some clouds and even sprinkles may linger
along and east of the CT River Valley. Most of the forecast
area should experience fair and dry weather with partly to
mostly sunny skies and temps trending above normal. Highs could
reach the upper 70s to around 80F in the Hudson and Mohawk
River Valleys with mid 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mtns
and near the CT River Valley.

A sfc anticyclone builds in over NY and PA with the high
amplitude ridge aloft. Near deal radiational cooling conditions
will set up with mostly clear skies and light to calm winds
with radiational/valley patchy mist/fog in spots. Lows will
fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A Rex Block amplifying across much of the East Coast will
ensure dry conditions for the start of the work week. Monday
will, therefore, be a mainly clear day with highs in the
mid/upper 70s to low 80s. One or two stray showers are possible
in the Southwest Adirondacks Monday night as an upper-level
disturbance and associated weak boundary pass by to the north,
but any precipitation that may develop would be very light in
nature. That said, cloud cover will increase a modest amount
mainly north of the Capital District Monday night, but skies
will remain partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low temperatures
Monday night will be in the 50s.

Clouds decrease Tuesday as the aforementioned system pushes further
east. Once again, another mainly clear day can be expected for much
of Tuesday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low and
possibly even mid 80s. Clouds will increase a bit Tuesday evening as
an upper-level shortwave a looks to pass and the attendant
surface low pass by to our north and west. Low temperatures
Tuesday night, similarly to those of Monday night will fall into
the 50s. By Wednesday, the Rex Block will begin to break down
in advance of an approaching upper-level trough and associated
frontal system. There remains some uncertainty in the timing of
this system, but general consensus points to a rain onset
Wednesday evening/night. Rain will last through the night
Wednesday into Thursday as the cold front passes through the
region, but it is unclear how long rain will persist upon the
complete frontal passage. Some sources of guidance point to
showers continuing through Thursday with troughing remaining
over the region while others indicate weak ridging that could
inflict subsidence and cut the duration short. For now,
maintained chance PoPs Thursday.

In addition to partly cloudy skies, Wednesday will feature highs in
the mid/upper 70s to low 80s. Wednesday night`s lows will be a few
degrees warmer in some areas compared to Monday and Tuesday night
with increased cloud cover. Expect 50s to low 60s. Thursday`s highs
will be the coolest of the period after the cool fropa. Temperatures
will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to continue across the region through
the end of the TAF period. SCT to BKN ceilings around 5-8kft
will continue developing this afternoon with cirrus clouds (BKN
ceilings around 20kft) continuing to flow eastward. A few
sprinkles may develop this afternoon as well but given no impact
to flying conditions or changes to flight categories, did not
include VCSH in the latest update.

Once we lose daytime heating, cumulus clouds around 5-8kft diminish
by 00 UTC with just SCT-BKN ceilings around 10-15kft overnight.
Ceilings lower to around 8-10kft by or shortly after 12 UTC and
continue as such through the end of the TAF period at all terminals.

Light and variable winds through tonight. Then winds develop out of
the northeast becoming sustained 5-8kts occur by or shortly after 12
UTC.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Speciale