Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 210900
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017
.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Short wave lifting out of the lower Mississippi Valley will be the
main driving force today. Models continue to show moderate
instability spreading across the forecast area ahead of this feature
this morning. Moderate shear also expected to accompany this short
wave providing a slight to enhanced risk of severe weather this
morning into the afternoon. We should see a bit of a lull in
activity later this afternoon and evening as the initial short wave
lifts out but another good shot of short wave energy pushes into the
state tonight ahead of the main upper-level low which sweeps across
Sunday. Each of these features are expected to provide a good shot
of lift and shear and combined with the ambient warm and moderately
unstable atmosphere in place over the region will keep the slight to
enhanced risk of severe weather in place through the day Sunday.
Forecast storm total precipitation amounts are generally around 2-3
inches across our central Georgia counties and 1.5-2 inches across
the north. Spread over the next 36 to 48 hours this is not likely to
produce any widespread flood/flash flood issues. However, localized
heavier amounts may lead to a few isolated problems. I am not
planning on issuing any flood/flash flood watches at this time.
.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
Models in better agreement at the start of the period with the
closed upper low vicinity of the TN valley. The low moves across
the Appalachians into Monday. Extensive wrap around associated
with this cold core low should give a chance of showers across the
forecast area on Monday...mainly northeast Monday night. Ridging
dominates the southeast on Tuesday but another short wave brings
moisture and a chance of showers back Wednesday into Thursday. The
short wave looks like it will move east of the area by Thursday
night. However moisture on the back side of this wave will push
into TN and move rapidly eastward. Models suggest this moisture
will stay mainly north of the forecast area...but there could be
enough cold air advection to bring a few snow showers to the far
northeast. A slight chance has been included in that area for
Thursday night. Friday looks dry. Temperatures will be on a
cooling trend by late next week.
mixture of MVFR/IFR conditions developing across the southern half
of the forecast area at this time will spread north and become
widespread, mainly IFR, areawide by 08-10Z. Will see some
improvement 14-20Z, but will still see a mixture of MVFR/IFR
conditions in that time frame. Mainly MVFR conditions after 20Z
deteriorating back toward widespread IFR conditions between 00Z and
06Z. Large area of showers with embedded thunderstorms spreads
across the forecast area from southwest to northeast between 10Z and
14Z, with the better coverage moving out of the area from west to
east between 18Z and 22Z. Southeast to southwest winds will become
more southeast by 12Z with wind speeds 2-6kt through 14Z, increasing
to 5-10kt after.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 67 58 69 47 / 90 90 80 80
Atlanta 69 58 67 48 / 90 90 80 70
Blairsville 64 53 63 44 / 80 90 80 90
Cartersville 68 56 67 46 / 90 90 80 70
Columbus 71 60 69 48 / 90 80 70 50
Gainesville 67 57 66 48 / 90 90 80 80
Macon 72 60 73 48 / 90 90 80 60
Rome 67 56 67 47 / 80 90 80 80
Peachtree City 71 58 68 46 / 90 90 80 70
Vidalia 73 62 75 51 / 80 80 90 50