Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 301538
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1138 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
As we reach convective temperature over the past hour coverage of
showers has increased across the area. Expect isolated thunder to
develop through the afternoon, and will have to keep our eye on
the outflow from the area of showers that moved through NW GA this
morning as it pushes south of the ATL metro area. Have made minor
tweaks to temperatures based upon current trends, but overall
forecast trends continue to look good.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 735 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016/
SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
No significant change to the general...overall pattern from the past
few days through the end of the short term forecast period. Weak
upper-level troughing continues across the region with a persistent
surface trough across the forecast area. Models show better moisture
spreading into our Central Georgia counties and I expect a better
coverage of scattered convection across that area today. I have
taken a few degrees off max temperatures across Central Georgia
zones as a result and we should remain below Heat Advisory criteria
today and Sunday. No strong dynamic forcing and instability remains
moderate at best so severe thunderstorms are not expected. POPs are
more uniform across the area this cycle and continue to show a
diurnal maximum during the late afternoon.
LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
Mid to long-range models show good agreement with a weak long
wave trough drifting along the Appalachians and dragging a weak
frontal boundary into the TN Valley Region by late Monday. This
coupled with subtle disturbances traversing through the upper
trough should enhance our chances for at least mainly diurnal
driven convection on Monday and Monday night. The upper trough
pushes off the Atlantic coast on Tuesday while high pressure
builds east from TX. This results in a weak frontal boundary
possibly sagging into central GA by late Tuesday while a weak
northwest flow becomes established aloft. This will likely result
in less rain chances across north GA and maybe low scattered
coverage across central GA for at least Tuesday and Wednesday next
week. Weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft and increasing
low level moisture may help increase rain chances by Thursday and
Friday just a bit... but still much uncertainty on just how much
influence the ridge pushing in from the west will have on things.
Otherwise... weak shear and only moderate instability continues
to support mainly afternoon and evening general thunderstorms...
with nothing widespread or organized severe expected through the
The expected increase in clouds and rain chances should help hold
temps closer to seasonal normals on Monday... then this trend may
continue into mid week as a slightly cooler northwest flow becomes
Although there is a slight chance of an isolated shower...or even a
thunderstorm...anywhere across the forecast area through this
forecast period...the better chances will be between 16Z and 02Z.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area through
the majority of this forecast period outside of any convection.
Could see some local MVFR or lower conditions through 14Z. Chances
for impacts at the TAF sites not high enough to include for now.
Winds will remain west to southwest through the period...generally
6KT or less through 14Z then increasing to 6-10kt after.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence concerning extent and timing of any MVFR or lower
ceilings this morning and coverage of convection this afternoon/
evening...otherwise high all other elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 94 73 93 73 / 40 30 30 30
Atlanta 92 75 91 75 / 40 30 40 30
Blairsville 87 67 87 67 / 40 30 40 30
Cartersville 91 71 91 72 / 40 30 30 30
Columbus 95 74 94 75 / 40 30 40 30
Gainesville 90 74 92 72 / 30 30 30 30
Macon 95 74 94 74 / 40 30 40 30
Rome 91 71 92 72 / 40 30 30 30
Peachtree City 92 71 91 72 / 40 30 40 30
Vidalia 97 76 96 75 / 40 30 40 30