Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 070207
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
907 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015


.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TONIGHTS WEATHER WITH DIMINISHED
WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND A HARD FREEZE ON TAP FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON THIS AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW AND MID CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON... BUT CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. MODEL GUIDANCES AGREE THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTER... LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS... AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST... WILL SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTH AND WEST... AND
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S EAST AND SOUTH. THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
COULD RESULT IN A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE ON AREA ROADS AND BRIDGES
TONIGHT WHERE ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER. HOWEVER... THIS
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM AS MUCH DRYING
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 8-9 AM... AND
ABOUT AN HOUR LATER FOR NORTH GEORGIA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A NICE WARMUP TO MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. BELOW NORMAL LOWS LOOK REASONABLE ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE STATE... AND
ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IF SKIES CAN REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR AS EXPECTED.

39

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW PRETTY WET LONG TERM BEGINNING MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE
EXTENT. WITH SUCH CONSISTENT SW MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE
GULF...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON QPF TRENDS AND ANY
FLOODING POTENTIAL SETTING UP. WPC GUIDANCE IS A BIT CONSERVATIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH MODELS ALSO HAVE SOME
INSTABILITY FLIRTING WITH OUR SOUTHERN PORTION FROM PERIODS MIDWEEK
ONWARD...HAVE KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR NOW AND KEPT OUT
MENTION BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE JUSTIFIED INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH BEST CHANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A GRADUAL ERODING OF MVFR AND LOW MID
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING BY 19-20Z TODAY FOR AHN AND ATLANTA AREA TAF
SITES... AND A BIT LATER FOR CSG AND MCN. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY NW AROUND 3-6KTS THROUGH SAT MORNING... THEN
BACKING MORE WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          27  62  34  67 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         28  60  36  66 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     23  57  29  61 /   0   5   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    22  59  29  64 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        30  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     27  60  35  64 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           27  63  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            22  58  30  64 /   0   0   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  23  61  30  67 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         32  63  36  71 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE


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