Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 211933
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
233 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

500mb analysis and WV loop shows an upper low across the ARKLAMISS.
This system will push SE through the remainder of the short term
forecast. The surface low pressure system will also drop SE through
the period.

Rain shield has had some difficulty moving east today. The short
term hi-res models were struggling with its progression earlier
today, but seem to have a better handle on the situation this
afternoon. A few showers are possible late this afternoon ahead of
the main rain shield, but the widespread rainfall is expected to
reach the I-85 corridor right around 00Z.

Overnight rain chances remain fairly high as the upper level and
surface systems move SE across the deep south. As the low pressure
centers get further away early Wednesday, the rainfall chances will
decrease.

Min and Max temp values will average 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

NListemaa


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

The extended forecast begins on Thursday with the upper low now well
south of the area over south Florida and pushing into to the
Atlantic. Our area will remain cloudy and very warm. Most of the
area should remain dry Thursday, though a few showers will be
possible in the northeast Georgia mountains.

By Friday the next frontal system will be approaching the area.
Temperatures ahead of this front will be well into the 70s for the
entire area with central Georgia likely warming into the 80s. These
forecast high temperatures on Friday will come very near or reach
record high temperatures for the date at some locations. Rain
chances will increase Friday night in association with the cold
front, primarily in north Georgia. There does appear to be
sufficient instability in place in north Georgia for the
inclusion of thunderstorm chances overnight Friday. However, the
best dynamics with this system will pass well north of the region,
so severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.

This front will quickly clear the state by late morning Saturday,
ushering in high pressure. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be
closer to late February normals as will Sunday high temperatures.
These seasonal temperatures will not last long, however, as a quick
warming trend will bring back the above normal temperatures we have
become accustomed to by early next week. Another frontal system
appears to bring back rain chances to the area by midweek next week
as well.

RW


&&


AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Upper level disturbance will move through the area overnight. The
system has been pretty slow to move east of the MS river today, so
rain/cigs have been a little slower to overspread the region. The
main changes to the previous TAF cycle was to delay the onset of
precip a few hours and to improve the cigs to MVFR by late
tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  70  55  74 /  70  50  20  10
Atlanta         58  70  57  73 /  90  40  10  10
Blairsville     52  63  51  69 /  90  60  10  20
Cartersville    56  69  54  72 /  90  40  10   5
Columbus        58  73  56  76 /  90  40  20   5
Gainesville     55  65  55  71 /  80  50  10  10
Macon           59  73  56  77 /  70  50  20  10
Rome            56  69  54  73 /  90  30  10   5
Peachtree City  56  70  54  73 /  90  40  10  10
Vidalia         60  73  59  78 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa



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