Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 010505 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
105 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.UPDATE...For Aviation.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016/

UPDATE...No changes needed. Current forecast is on track for a
clear night with min temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

16

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Hard to find a way to complain about the weather today as a rather
unseasonably strong synoptic scale trough remains parked over the
lower OH Valley/upper TN Valley. WV loop at AFD time reveals several
subtle perturbations rotating around the main center of circulation
into TN...with weakening divergence located in the left exit region
of a dissipating 300mb jet across this area. This has been producing
some showers across northern TN...but will not have an effect on Ga.
At the sfc...low pressure resides across the TN Valley into the
Carolinas...with high pressure trying to nose in from the west. All
dynamics remain displaced to our north today...with 850mb CAA still
holding its grip across the area...allowing for high temps to top
out in the 70s for most locations.

Overnight...a clear...calm...and "crisp" night is in store for the
area. Minimal cloud cover and dry air will allow low temps to creep
down into the upper 40s to low 50s. I highly encourage you to sleep
with the windows open tonight!

For Saturday-pattern looks fairly similar to today. Synoptic trough
will migrate north slowly toward the lower Great Lakes...meaning its
influence will not be reflected across the area. Sfc high pressure
will be a little stronger allowing for mostly clear skies again with
high temps a touch higher than Friday as we lose trough influence.
As the broad trough migrates north a shortwave will move into the
area from the west late Saturday/Saturday night. With a moisture
starved airmass in place...do not anticipate much more than perhaps
an increase in cirrus at this point. Low temps Saturday will be in
the mid 50s. Enjoy the weather this weekend...I think we`ve earned
it.

Kovacik

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

General long-term forecast trends remain consistent with previous
runs and medium-range models remain in good agreement through the
majority of the period...at least with respect to our forecast area.
GFS and ECMWF diverge widely concerning Matthew, but both solutions
have low impacts on our forecast area. With this in mind, I have made
only minor adjustments to the extended forecast grids with this
cycle. Please see the previous LONG TERM forecast discussion below.

20

Previous LONG TERM Discussion/Saturday Night through Thursday/...

NListemaa
Very little chances for precipitation for the CWFA in the long term
portion of the extended forecast.

A longwave trough will remain in place across the SE US through
early next week before shifting eastward. Ridging aloft will build
for the latter half of the week. For much of the forecast period,
high pressure will dominate at the surface. The ridging at the
surface will begin to break down by the latter half of next week as
a front approaches from the west. Models currently prog the front to
begin approaching the CWFA by Friday.

Temperatures will remain seasonable for much of the period, but
begin to creep to slightly above normal values by mid to late next
week.

Still of note...the official NHC forecast does keep Matthew moving
just east of the FL peninsula. Both the GFS and ECMWF handle the
hurricane a little differently with timing and location next week,
but they both are keeping the storm offshore the SE coast of the US.
However,interested parties should remain alert of any changes in the
track.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
While no critical fire weather conditions are expected today...
relative humidities will get down into the upper 20s and lower 30s
for portions of east and central GA. A larger portion of n and all
of central GA can expect min rh`s in the upper 20s and lower 30s
on Saturday with some areas of central GA around 25 percent.
Winds of 10 mph or less can be expected today and mainly light winds
for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Isolated mvfr fog possible this morning. Otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail with few-sct cu 4000-6000 ft for the afternoon and
some increase of cirrus late day and tonight. Surface winds
mainly light W or light and variable.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  55  84  58 /   0   0   5   5
Atlanta         80  58  83  61 /   0   0   5   0
Blairsville     72  53  78  52 /   0   0   5   5
Cartersville    78  55  83  56 /   0   0   5   5
Columbus        83  57  86  61 /   0   0   5   5
Gainesville     76  55  81  59 /   0   0   5   5
Macon           83  56  86  59 /   0   0  10   5
Rome            78  55  83  56 /   5   0   5   5
Peachtree City  81  56  83  56 /   0   0   5   0
Vidalia         82  58  87  65 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL


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