Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 310031
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
831 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG EXIST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WITH THAT IN MIND...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
IN THIS VICINITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON FRIDAY AS NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FILTER AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO ON FRIDAY.

RW

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY... WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW... BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH GEORGIA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RELIEF
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

39/16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE SUN IS
SETTING THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING
AROUND THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP
UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THU AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY SO AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA. WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT
OF THE E TO NE BUT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE NW FRI AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL STAY 10KT OR LESS WITH SOME HIGHER GUST IN AND AROUND
TSRA DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  91  70  93 /  30  10   5  20
ATLANTA         74  90  71  90 /  30  10   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  61  85 /  20  10   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    70  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        75  93  73  92 /  30  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     73  88  71  90 /  30   5   5  10
MACON           75  94  73  93 /  40  40  20  30
ROME            69  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  72  90  69  91 /  30  20   5  20
VIDALIA         76  93  74  92 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01


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