Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 280554
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015



.UPDATE...
MCS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF AL THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE METRO AREA...OR WEST OF GA. THE HI-RES MODELS ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHERE/WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP...BUT THEY
ALL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS GA. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE STATE. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS LOOK GOOD.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES THAT GET RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BUT GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  66  85  65 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         82  68  82  67 /  30  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  78  63 /  20  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    81  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  40
COLUMBUS        83  68  84  68 /  50  40  50  20
GAINESVILLE     80  65  81  65 /  20  30  40  40
MACON           87  66  84  64 /  30  30  30  20
ROME            83  65  82  65 /  40  50  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  30
VIDALIA         86  67  89  67 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
AVIATION...41
LONG TERM...33


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