Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 102315
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
615 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 223 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Mostly clear skies will continue to prevail across the CWFA through
most of tonight. Low level moisture will begin to increase across
the area as prolonged easterly flow sets up - helping to increase
the cloud cover through tomorrow. No precipitation is expected during
the day Sunday.
A cold front will begin to approach the northern CWFA Sunday
Night...bringing a chance of rain mainly to the northern zones.
Since temperatures will be moderating fairly quickly, no frozen
precip is expected at this time.
LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Models coming into better agreement for the long term. A potent
sfc low with an associated cold front draped down across north TX
will progress eastward early Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure
well to our east will still be nosed in across portions of
north and central Georgia. With overrunning precipitation/isentropic
lift ahead of the next front, expect a chance of light precipitation
by early Monday morning. However, as heights fall and the sfc high
shifts even further offshore, expect the wedge to erode and return
flow to develop area wide through Monday. This will mean a moist
airmass will quickly infiltrate the region as the front nears. It
should be noted that much of the dynamics and lift associated with
the front will be north of the area, so not expecting a complete
washout or severe threat with this boundary. The front will
eventually become stalled and wash out across the region through
Wednesday. With mid level impulses crossing, this will allow the
boundary to be the focus for sfc low development through mid-week.
Therefore, expect a wet and mild first half of the week. Storm
total rainfall amounts of around 0.75 inch in the extreme north to
around 0.25 inch in central GA can be expected. With little
mid/upper level forcing, do not see much in the way of instability,
so have kept thunder out of the grids. As a trough crosses to our
north, it will allow cold high pressure to the NW to build into
the region. Meanwhile a deepening trough to the west will eject
mid- level impulses toward the region. Another overrunning
precipitation scenario may take shape. Either way, as the sfc high
settles offshore and moist southerly flow increase by
Friday/Saturday, looking at an increase potential for
precipitation by the end of the week.
VFR conditions will continue into tonight...however strato cu will
spread across the forecast area late tonight and early Sunday
morning with MVFR cigs over all areas by 14/15Z...going IFR in the
ATL area after 00Z Mon. Different models are showing different
onset times of the MVFR cigs so have stay with consistency in the
forecast. Winds will remain east to northeast less than 10 kts
through the forecast. Best chance of showers will be north of
ATL/AHN and risk is too low to put in the forecast at this time.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on timing of MVFR cigs.
High on remaining elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 29 44 39 61 / 0 20 30 60
Atlanta 31 46 42 62 / 0 20 30 60
Blairsville 26 43 38 55 / 0 30 50 70
Cartersville 28 47 42 60 / 0 20 40 70
Columbus 34 53 48 69 / 0 20 30 50
Gainesville 30 42 39 57 / 0 30 40 60
Macon 31 51 45 70 / 0 20 30 50
Rome 25 49 42 61 / 0 20 50 70
Peachtree City 28 48 41 63 / 0 20 30 50
Vidalia 34 59 50 73 / 5 20 30 40