Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KFFC 220851
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS OUT
INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAKER
IMPLUSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS NORTH GEORGIA
SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ISOLATED...ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT STALLS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE WITH MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. SECONDARY CONCERN IS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. PERIODS OF SCATTERED
MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z.
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z...REACHING THE KCSG
AND KMCN TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BY 02Z AND INTO THE
KAHN AREA BY 02-04Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED...EMBEDDED
SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS
THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF MVFR
CEILINGS REACHING THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.