Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 291914
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  50  29  54 /  30  10   5   0
ATLANTA         36  49  30  54 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  42  23  52 /  30  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  46  26  52 /  30   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  55  32  58 /  20  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  48  30  52 /  30  10   5   0
MACON           40  55  30  55 /  30  10   5   0
ROME            36  45  26  52 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  38  50  27  56 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         46  59  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...20



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