Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 221244

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
744 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Showers continue to move northward across the forecast area, ahead
of mid level energy approaching from eastern Oklahoma.

Forecasts through 23/06z have been adjusted to account for the
latest expected eastward progression of current precipitation



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 635 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017)

The forecast will have VFR and MVFR ceilings, with areas of rain and
showers. Thunderstorms will be confined mainly over southeast AR,
where most of the MVFR conditions will be seen. A storm system and
cold front continue to move through AR today, as the rain gradually
lessens through the day. Also the MVFR conditions this morning will
gradually become VFR ceilings into the afternoon, with the latest
over the east. A low level jet has also set up over southeast AR,
and wind shear will be possible at KLLQ until winds shift to the
west to northwest. Surface winds will be west to northwest at 10 to
20 mph with some gusts, then lower to 8 to 18 mph with some higher
gusts. The storms over southeast AR will gradually weaken later in
the day. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 347 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast are first period convection with
strong to severe storm potential. Then drying out into the coming
week with cooler temperatures.

Have seen the line of strong to isolated severe storms early this
morning moving from west to east. Watch was in effect for much of
west and central AR. Damaging winds were the main threat reported.
The front was located over western AR, as the line of storms
continues to move east and gradually weaken. The upper low
pressure trough was near the OK and AR state line and will
gradually move east also.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

Will keep showers and storms in the forecast this early morning,
especially center to east, while lighter convection in western AR.
An isolated severe storm still is possible through around sunrise
Sunday. Clouds will be slow to break today and will not happen
to later in the afternoon. Cooler temperatures will be seen with
highs from the 60s north to the 70s central and south. Models
continue to develop the upper low pressure system over the
southern part of the region, and will have to keep some chances of
rain in the forecast, especially in the east, into Sunday night
and Monday. This low pressure gradually moves to the east Monday
ending the chances of rain. Temperatures will remain cooler than
normal for Monday.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

A deepening upper trough will be diving SE across the Plains into
the SERN CONUS at the start of the long term period. A new surge a
cold air will dive south into AR...with below normal conditions
expected for Tue and Wed. Dry conditions will be seen as a result.

SRLY flow will return for Thu...with temps rebounding back above
normal. However...this will be short lived as a new cold front and
upper trough will be diving south across the Rockies into the Plains
by Fri. This front will bring more chances for SHRA/TSRA to the
state for Fri into Sat. There remains some differences in timing of
this front in the med-range model guidance...with the ECMWF
remaining the slower solution. Have continued with a blend regarding
timing...but will point out the GFS timing has been more consistent
over the past couple days regarding the late week FROPA. Even
so...this will be an Arctic front...with likely some of the coldest
air seen so far this season moving into AR by the end of the


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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