Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 262348 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
648 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING...WITH
THE CLEARING LINE STRETCHING FROM CAMDEN UP TO BRINKLEY AS OF 6
PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD LIE BENEATH CLEAR SKIES...FOR A SHORT TIME ANYWAY...BY
9 PM OR SO. MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT HOWEVER...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE
VICINITY OF THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR BY THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE DAY SHIFT HAD PASSED ALONG CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER A FROST OR
FREEZE ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. THINK THE FORECAST PUT OUT THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
GOOD ORDER AND WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FREEZE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH OR
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THAT REACH FREEZING BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE TONIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT HOURLY TEMP
TRENDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS FINE TUNE THE SKY
COVER FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MUCH OF THE SHRA IS OUT OF THE REGION...BUT KEPT VCSH AT KLLQ.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
TONIGHT...AND KEPT PROB30 GROUPS IN NORTHERN TAFS AROUND 27/12Z.
WILL AMEND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ANY. MAIN EFFECT WITH WAVE WILL
BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT HAVE LEFT VFR AS OF NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

HAVE CONTINUED TO SEE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH
THE STATE TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS PICKING UP. BEGINNING TO SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX A
BIT ACROSS SW MISSOURI AND SE KANSAS...THEREFORE THINK ALLOWING THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 00Z SEEMS ON TRACK. PRECIP ACROSS THE
STATE HAS BEEN STUBBORN WITH CLOUDS BEING SLOW TO CLEAR. JUST MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH POPS ENTERING THE FORECAST. THE MAV HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT
COLDER WITH THE LATEST MODELS RUNS...WITH THE MET HINTING AT IT AS
WELL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS DRASTIC. TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST
MORE TOWARDS THE MET. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY FOR
RAIN...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES FLYING ACROSS THE NORTH.

LOW TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE A BIT TRICKIER. MAV
CAME BACK SIX DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THE MET
ABOUT TWO DEGREES COOLER. DID TREND MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD...BUT STILL
KEPT READINGS ABOVE FREEZING. AGAIN...CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT AND A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE
COME BACK A BIT WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL THINK TEMPS WILL
BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY WINTER WX HAZARDS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UNSETTLED...SPRINGTIME WEATHER SEEMS TO BE THE GENERALLY TREND FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES
OF FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...KEEPING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EXTEND PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE WEATHER FEATURES AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LOW FOR NOW. AS FAR AS TEMPS...READINGS WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  35  52  35 /  50  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         64  36  63  42 /  60  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       52  34  52  34 /  40  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  38  61  41 /  40  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  38  59  40 /  50  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     67  36  60  41 /  70  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  34  60  39 /  40  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  53  35  53  34 /  40  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        53  34  53  35 /  60  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     62  38  58  40 /  60  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  36  58  40 /  40  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         57  35  56  35 /  60  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      63  38  56  39 /  60  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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