Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 270611 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1211 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017
Updated for the 06z aviation discussion below.
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Winds will be light from the north to east, or become light and
variable overnight. Winds on Sunday will be southeast at 5 to 15
mph. Sunday afternoon, a few light showers may develop over the west
with some VFR ceilings.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 900 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017 )
The area of convection continues to move from southwest to northeast
across AR. Have seen mainly showers with some embedded thunder.
Overall rain amounts have been under a tenth of an inch, but
expected additional amounts through the evening and tonight with
added convection. Strong storm threat remains low and isolated. The
upper shortwave is forecast to move east of AR Monday morning and
lower the chances of rain on Monday. Lows tonight will be mainly in
the 40s. Winds will be mostly northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Some chance of rain will be in the forecast Monday, with
the lowest north, to the highest south. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 235 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017
Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night.
Overall the models remain in good agreement in the synoptic scale
with an active pattern shaping up for the most of the short term
period. Some minimal differences are evident in the timing of the
waves and the NAM remains the most aggressive in its solution. The
best course of action at this time is to blend solution but down
play the NAM somewhat.
After the coolest morning we have seen in quite a while courtesy of
high pressure, temperatures continue to rebound as southeast flow
has returned on the back side of the departing high. A very weak
shortwave is passing to the north of the state at this time but is
producing nothing more than sprinkles as the lower levels of the
atmosphere are simply very dry.
However, several more significant shortwaves will have to be dealt
with. First off, water vapor imagery continues to show a low
amplitude shortwave moving through the desert southwest. As the
system approaches, moisture will increase as a warm air advection
regime commences. While some showers will be possible this evening,
widespread precipitation will develop tonight and continue through
the night. Some elevated convection is possible but severe weather
is not expected.
The bulk of the precipitation will be over the east and southeast
parts of the state by sunrise and moving out during the morning.
However, a small chance of showers and thunderstorms will be held
onto as the upper pattern will continue to keep moisture in place
along with a few weak impulses in the prevailing flow.
A more significant trough will approach the area for Tuesday with
additional precipitation expected, especially later in the day and at
night. Strong warm air advection will continue as a warm frontal
boundary will be well north of the area. Record highs could be
flirted with on Tuesday with widespread 70s and even a few 80s
Severe weather can not be ruled out with plenty of instability, low
level moisture and shear in place, aided by a 100 knot jet streak at
H500. At this time, it looks like a hail, wind and low end tornado
threat will be possible in the late afternoon and early evening
hours. It must be emphasized this is in no way a sure thing as many
limiting factors could come into play. Still, it can be glossed over
either. Regardless, another batch of rain is expected.
What appears to be a better chance of is a line of thunderstorms
developing along and ahead of the associated cold front overnight
Tuesday and into the early morning hours. As the line develops
along/ahead of the front, wind damage would become the primary
concern with any severe storms and may last into early Wednesday
over the southeast.
Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday...
In concert with a cold front moving through the state, ongoing
showers and potentially strong thunderstorms will continue Wed
morning across the southeast third of the state. The activity will
be ending from west to east and should clear the state around
noon, followed by some afternoon sun. Surface high pressure behind
the will bring several days of mostly clear, dry and mild
weather. A weak cold front will move through Thu night, but with
no appreciable moisture in place, this front should move through
dry. As the surface high moves east, moisture returns quickly late
Sat into Sunday, bringing the next chance of rain on Sunday in
advance of the next cold front.
Temperatures will run pretty close to seasonal averages during the
extended periods with highs generally in the 50s and 60s and lows in
the 30s and 40s.