Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 220149 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
845 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.Discussion...

Evening convection gradually winding down and only a slight to less
chance expected overnight. Partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions
expected Monday night, with limited fog potential. Did see
temperatures reach the low to mid 90s today, and with in place
humidity, heat index values on Tuesday will again be around 100 to
near 105 in spots. Tuesday afternoon in the north, evening to the
overnight for central and southern AR, convection chances do
increase as a cold front slowly sags southeast. SPC does have a
marginal risk of severe storms along the front as it moves
southeast, with moisture, some instability and lift. Winds and hail
will be the threats of any strong or severe storm. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 630 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/
.Aviation...

Monday evening convection will wind down in next 1-3 hours and not
expected to affect any Taf sites. VFR conditions are expected over
the next 24 hours. Only patchy MVFR conditions and very isolated IFR
will be possible early Tuesday morning. Winds will be south at 3 to
8 mph this evening, then Monday night become light and variable.
Winds on Tuesday will be south at 5 to 15 mph. Later Tuesday to
Tuesday night, a cold front will slowly move southeast and develop
scattered showers and thunderstorms. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 255 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
Isolated convective cells are noted by the latest KLZK radar data.
This activity should diminish shortly after sunset.

Mid level heights are expected to amplify across the Rockies
during this period, allowing for a northwesterly flow to develop
over the mid south. This flow pattern will promote a cold front to
move southward, reaching northern portions of the state by late
Tuesday. Will need to monitor for excessive rainfall potential,
given relatively moist antecedent conditions, as well as
forecast conditions favoring cell training.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Scattered showers/storms wl be noted across the S half of AR Wed
night as the aforementioned CDFNT pushes further into LA. Starting
Thu, high pressure ridge will build into from the N, with drier and
cooler airmass filtering into the region. Still looking at below
normal temps for a few days, with lows in the 50s and 60s and highs
mainly in the 80s.

As the surface high weakens, the lingering front to our S will begin
a slow return back NWD. AS this occurs, moisture/low rain chances
are back in the fcst by the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  91  70  83 /  20  60  50  30
Camden AR         75  94  74  89 /  20  10  50  60
Harrison AR       72  86  66  81 /  20  50  40  20
Hot Springs AR    75  93  74  86 /  20  30  50  50
Little Rock   AR  76  93  74  85 /  20  30  50  50
Monticello AR     75  94  75  87 /  20  10  50  60
Mount Ida AR      73  93  71  86 /  20  30  50  50
Mountain Home AR  73  87  67  81 /  20  60  50  20
Newport AR        74  90  70  82 /  20  60  50  40
Pine Bluff AR     75  93  74  86 /  20  20  50  60
Russellville AR   75  92  72  85 /  20  40  50  40
Searcy AR         73  93  72  83 /  20  40  50  50
Stuttgart AR      74  93  74  84 /  20  20  60  60
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...44



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