Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 292315 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. VCSH ADDED ACROSS NORTHERN SITES FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN OVERALL DRY AND WARMING INTO THE COMING WEEK.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION TODAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH
THUNDER NOTED OVER N TO NE AR WHERE MAX LIFT AND SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS LOCATED. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF AR...GENERALLY FROM NE OK TO CENTRAL MO. DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE COME UP OVER AR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.19 INCHES. DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SOME TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN A WEATHER FACTOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EVEN MONDAY...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS. ALTHOUGH A BIT
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF AR...ALBEIT
COVERAGE STILL DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL VALUES. BY TUESDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER TROUGH HAS WEAKENED
AND MINIMAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN THE PATTERN. HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL BE FLANKED ON BOTH SIDES BY UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION GOES...AS THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58



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