Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 010009 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
709 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Still have plenty of VFR bases/ceilings rotating into northern and
northeastern Arkansas this evening, on the southwest side of an
upper low situated over the Ohio River Valley. Because of this,
kept some OVC060-070 ceilings in the northern terminals through at
least 03z, with some scattered bases around 5,000 ft lasting
through the night. Elsewhere VFR conditions with just cirrus are
expected. The one exception will be KADF where some fog should
develop during the early morning hours leading up to daybreak.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Upper low over the Ohio Valley will keep some low stratocu over us
during the next 24 hours before lifting out on Saturday. Surface
high pressure will move across by late Saturday and into Sunday,
with winds becoming more southerly. This will allow temperatures
to warm back into the 80s in most areas. Otherwise...winds will be
light and variable at night time...with patchy fog in some valley
areas.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Not a lot of changes to the previous thinking in terms of the
extended term. Some upper level ridging will start to take place on
Monday, which will allow daily max temperatures to start creeping
back up into the 80`s, and it`s even possible a few 90 degree
readings could be seen in a few select places across the south by
Wednesday afternoon.

The next upper level trof will start to impact the NWRN portions of
the area on Wednesday, along with a surface cold front. Keeping POPs
in the 30 to 40 pct range, although as this event gets closer these
may get raised as confidence in the timing increases.

POPs will overspread the entire CWA on Thursday as the front starts
to advance through the area. Will probably see a significant
cool down across the NW on Thursday, followed by the rest of the
area on Friday...which should be dry in the wake of the frontal
passage.

FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather issues are expected through the
period. Minimum humidity should stay near or above the 40th
percentile. The next chance for rain will be mid to late week next
week.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...64



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