Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 201746
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1146 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Added a mention of rain for tonight mainly west of the CO border.
During the evening a weak upper level short wave trough will move
over the west edge of the forecast area. Isolated to scattered
storm coverage may accompany this short wave trough. Dew point
depressions do lower below 500mb, but the environment is still
quite dry. Am not very confident of storm activity over the the
CO counties, but cannot rule out any storm activity. The majority
of the storm activity will remain west and north of the forecast
area, rotating around the upper level ridge over KS. Any storm
activity will be confined to the evening.

While confidence for storm activity is low, there is some
uncertainty as to how far east any storms will develop/move
into the forecast area. Most data supports storm coverage will be
west of the CO line, so have chances for rain mainly over the
west, with a small extension into KS and NE to account for any
storms that may be slightly further east.

The main threat with any storms that do form will be damaging wind
gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 314 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Hot temperatures are the primary forecast focus through Friday
with a possibility of scattered thunderstorms on Friday and
Saturday.

The high pressure area aloft over the southern and central plains
states today decreases in strength as the upper pattern flattens
and several short wave troughs move through the westerly flow
aloft through Friday night. The upper flow becomes more
northwesterly on Saturday with a short wave through moving
through the region by late Saturday.

The weak surface trough waffling over the central high plains
today strengthens over the region on Friday ahead of the
approaching cold front.

Prior to the passage of the cold front, high temperatures today
and on Friday are expected to once again be in the 95 to 105 range
during the afternoons. Overnight temperature recovery is less than
impressive early this morning with the eastern sections only
dipping into the middle 70s. As such, the heat advisory that was
in place during the day on Wednesday remains in place through the
early morning hours and through early this evening. Overnight
temperature recovery is also not very impressive tonight. Will not
modify the head advisory at this time, but it may have to be
extended to cover the overnight hours through Friday afternoon if
models continue to show early morning temperatures remaining in
the middle 70s Friday morning.

The cold front is currently expected to move into the area Friday
evening and continue slowly southward where it stalls and remains
stretched from the central high plains into the plains states.
This cold front in unison with the upper short wave troughs
expected to move east across the region will be the focus for
thunderstorm development across mainly the northwestern sections
of the forecast area Friday and Friday night before the favored
area moves further south across the forecast area on Saturday.
With a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the area on
Friday and Saturday, isolated storms may become severe with large
hail and damaging winds possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Sunday and Monday: Lingering theta-e boundary lifts northeastward as
high pressure builds into the Plains. Chc PoPs are in the forecast
for Sunday afternoon as thunderstorms will be possible along this
boundary through the afternoon and evening. The environment will have
enough instability for a few stronger storms and although severe
storms cannot be completely ruled out, the environment is not the
most favorable. CAPE will range from 800 to 1500 J/Kg with a nearly
non-existent shear profile both in the 0-1km and 0-6km layers.
Severe thunderstorm parameters are ever so slightly better on Monday
with CAPE approaching 1800 J/Kg and deep layer shear less than 30
knots. Slgt chc PoPs are in the forecast Monday mainly during the
early to mid-afternoon time frame. High temperatures both days will
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tuesday through Thursday: H5 high pressure influences the region and
afternoon highs will be a bit warmer in the lower to middle 90s. The
CWA will remain relatively far removed from the synoptic flow
pattern during this time period, reducing available forcing and thus
inhibiting widespread thunderstorm activity. Slight chc PoPs are in
the forecast each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday and will
primarily be driven by the presence of weak H7 lee troughs moving
out of east-central Colorado. Instability will be in place; however,
severe indices are weak given the current guidance and tend to favor
stronger storms that strengthen briefly to near-severe criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

For KGLD and KMCK...With high pressure still dominating the area`s
weather, VFR conditions expected through the period. Wind
directions at both locations have been a bit erratic, especially
KMCK, but expect wind to eventually settle into a southerly flow
this afternoon. Wind shifting to more of a southwest/west-
southwest flow near daybreak with response to approaching front
from the northwest and low pressure orientation at the surface.



&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-015-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SME



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