Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 021045
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
445 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
NOON TIME LEAVING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WITH
THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A ONE TO THREE HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. CENTER OF 12MB 3 HOURLY
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ENTERS YUMA COUNTY AROUND 07Z STEADILY MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE BY 09Z THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
EXITS THE AREA BY 12Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF A
WIND ADVISORY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS AN AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MODESTLY LOW INHIBITION. THIS
AREA OF INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING
130+KT 250 JET. FELT THAT A THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT AROUND
09Z FOR AREAS FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER. FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO STRATTON TO NEAR WILD HORSE.
WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON
POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING WITH A SLOW DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROST POSSIBLE FOR THE KIT CARSON TO AROYA
COLORADO AREA AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR WRAY COLORADO TO NEAR GEM
AND HILL CITY KANSAS. FREEZE POSSIBLE IN RED WILLOW COUNTY.
HILITES POSSIBLY NEEDED. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE AT
MCCOOK (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HAVE ADDED RECORD/NEAR RECORD
WORDING TO THE ZFPGLD.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 70 TO 75 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS.  STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI
STATE AREA.  EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

KGLD...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
15Z BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM 16Z-07Z. FROM 08Z-11Z A
STRONG COLD FRONT AIDED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINAL. THERE WILL BE A ONE TO THREE HOUR PERIOD OF NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 35KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER AND MVFR CIGS. FROM
11Z-12Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BUT WINDS STILL GUSTY.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
15Z BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN FROM 16Z-07Z. SIMILAR TO KGLD THE
08Z-11Z TIME FRAME FEATURES A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-35KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. MVFR
CIGS ALSO EXPECTED IN THIS 3 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
SHORTLY AFTER 11Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE AROUND 09Z...AT THIS TIME DID NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST
GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OCTOBER 4TH AT
MCCOOK NEBRASKA. CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE IS 32 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1911.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99



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