Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170430
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM AND CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE FROM MONUMENT HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE SPRINGS.
LATEST 00Z RUC/NAM SLOWLY MOVE THIS SYSTEM EAST INTO OUR WESTERN
THROUGH SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 09Z THEN SOUTHEAST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND 12Z AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z OR SO.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BIGGEST OF WHICH WAS TO
ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z. OTHER
CHANGES WERE TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER...ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DP/WIND
GRIDS ETC. STILL LOOKING AT MINOR IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN AREAS
WHERE LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE
AT 21Z AS PLANNED. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM THE PREVIOUS PEAK
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING
AROUND 30-32 MPH..FEEL THESE WILL BEGIN DROPPING OFF SHORTLY. NO
VWP AVAILABLE TO MONITOR WINDS ALOFT DIRECTLY SINCE RADOME PANELS
ARE BEING REPLACED ON 88D THIS WEEK AND RADAR IS DOWN FOR THE
COUNT UNTIL SATURDAY. 12Z NAM SHOWS 850-700 WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEEING THIS ALSO IN SURFACE
TRENDS...SO WILL LET THE ADVISORY DROP AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED.

HRRR HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
KS-NE BORDER IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED CU. COLD TEMPS AT 700 MB AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE GENERATED STEEP 850-500 LAPSE RATES. ADDED AN
AREA OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALONG THE KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ESE ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR ONE MORE DAY ON THURSDAY GIVEN
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST...PROVIDING A COOLER E-SE
SURFACE FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO
NEXT WEEK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER QUIET AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
PASS ON THE NORTHERN RIDGE EDGE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND WITH ONLY LIMITED CAPE AVAILABLE...HAVE ONLY CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MUCH GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONE
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP
WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS OF MORE THAN
A HALF OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD BE QUITE WELCOME
CONSIDERING THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CAP IS
BROKEN...STORMS WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME STRONG.
WITH CAPE OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS AT
MOST AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM...PARAMETERS ARE
NOT INDICATIVE OF A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM COMPLETELY MOVES OUT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WARMER WEATHER SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS RIDGE
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A VIGOROUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...FAVORING A SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING THE
TRI-STATE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEPENDS HIGHLY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE DRYLINE FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REGION
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. WAS NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS SO HAVE
ADVERTISED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LIFT OF THIS
SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS WE ARE NOW
ENTERING A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN ADDITION...IF THE DRYLINE IS FARTHER EAST AND THE
FORECAST WINDY CONDITIONS PAN OUT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE 11Z AND AFTER 15Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS IN THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME AS STRATUS MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST (WHERE CIGS CURRENTLY MVFR). A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT EXITING THE AREA BEFORE
18Z THURSDAY. EAST WINDS AROUND 6KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 11Z THURSDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12-17KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
EXPECTED.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE 08Z AND AFTER 12Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME AS STRATUS MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AS KGLD.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE TO BECOME EASTERLY BY
14Z THEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99






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