Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 072316
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
516 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THE HAZE/SMOKE CONDITIONS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE LESSENED GREATLY
WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY AS SMOKE CONTINUES TO DISPERSE THRU 00Z
WED.

FOR TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA AS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BEGINS
TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST IN TANDEM WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS COLORADO/SE WYOMING. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL WORK INTO EASTERN COLORADO...MAINLY YUMA COUNTY...BUT
COULD APPROACH NW KANSAS ZONES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWER
CONFIDENCE OF AREAL COVERAGE FOR TRW/RW SPREADING FURTHER EAST THAN
THE KS/CO BORDER BASED ON WHERE SURFACE RIDGE PLACEMENT CURRENTLY
IS...SO WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF NEAR 30 POPS FOR NE
COLORADO...TRENDING SOUTHEAST TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR NORTH/SOUTH
LINE AROUND KGLD. ANOTHER NIGHT FOR THE AREA TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 50S...WARMEST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER TONIGHT.

GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASED CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR
RW/TRW AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH STALLS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED WAA ON SSE FLOW...THUS INCREASING
INSTABILITY TOWARDS 00Z THURSDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED PREVIOUS FORECAST
TREND OF INCREASING POPS THRU THE DAY...GIVING LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR
TRW IN THE WEST. THE CURRENT OUTLOOK IS NOT FOR SEVERE
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH PW/S VALUES STILL 1.00" TO 1.50" ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD INCLUDE POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...DAYTIME HIGHS SURE TO BE
IMPACTED SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH AREAS LOOKING FOR
75-80F.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM A COOL AND UNSETTLED REGIME EARLY TO A WARMING AND
DRYING PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND. WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEGIN WITH
BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT AND AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
FROM THE UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THAT FEATURE WILL
PRODUCE A DECENT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IS SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL
BE GENERAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF PRECIP WHEN ALL IS
SAID AND DONE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS FORECAST
TO RETROGRADE LATER THIS WEEK AND REACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SAT-TUE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FRIDAY
AND THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED...A STRETCH
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WILL BEGIN ALONG WITH
MINIMAL PRECIP POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
LINGERING SMOKE/HAZE NOTED IN OBSERVATIONS...BUT GIVEN SFC TRENDS
AND EXPECTED FLOW DO NOT EXPECT A SIG REDUCTION IN VISBY LIKE LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JRM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.