Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290653
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1153 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY SO THINKING TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON RANGING FROM LOW
60S IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO LOW 70S IN THE EAST.

A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA AT MIDDAY WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING IN ITS WAKE. 40-50 KT WINDS IN THE
850-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER UNTIL SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT
15-20 MPH THIS EVENING SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15 MPH BY MORNING.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN 850 MB TEMPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON A GOOD 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. AS A
RESULT...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S WHICH
IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND WEST COAST RIDGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST IN THE FLOW AT THIS TIME SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE SLIM. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW STATUS WITH 1400-2200 FT AGL ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTH...IN LINE TO MOVE OVER
THE KMCK TERMINAL BY ABOUT 07Z. WHILE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS
STRATUS DECK...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS STRATUS WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH 15-16Z TIME PERIOD BEFORE MOVING EAST AND
DISSIPATING WITH INCREASING DAYTIME MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KGLD...THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
TIMING/EXTENT OF THE STRATUS TO THE NW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE FROM WYOMING OVER BOTH TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
WHILE A FEW MORNING GUSTS TO 20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AT KMCK)...THERE WILL BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS 23-00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR


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