Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 301032
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
432 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and severe weather.
Satellite showing complicated and amplified/blocky pattern from the
Pacific into the western Atlantic.

At jet level...models started out fine. At mid levels...Models
started out fine with the Canadian doing slightly better. Numerous
outflow boundaries have messed up the surface wind and pressure
field. So will use hires models for today followed by the Sref.
Nam/Gfs/Canadian did best on the low level thermal field.

Mesoscale influences have dramatically affected the low level
environment tonight. Considering that and recent inconsistent model
performance recently, my confidence is low on how all this is going
to turn out.

Today/tonight...the main forecast issue resides in this period. Air
mass has gotten worked over so at this time do not expected any
precipitation this morning. Beginning this afternoon, strong mid
level shortwave trough and cold front will move across the area. By
mid afternoon the air mass will be uncapped and unstable with steep
lapse rates in place.

So would expect rapid develop of thunderstorms from the northwest
this afternoon. This line/cluster of storms should move across the
entire area. Considering the instability and lapse rates...would
expect these storms to produce very large hail and damaging winds.
Air mass is also pretty moist with PWs just above 1 standard
deviation above normal. Considered a flash flood watch for those
locations that received heavy rainfall yesterday, northern Yuma and
all of Dundy and along and south of the interstate in Kansas.
However decided to not issue one since these storms should move at a
fair rapid clip. However, day shift will need to take another close
look at this. So beginning this afternoon into the evening put a
mention of severe and locally heavy rainfall into the forecast.

Model guidance ended up being cool yesterday with plenty of sun and
think that will happen today. So went toward the warmer guidance.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Showers/thunderstorms should be ongoing at
the beginning of the day. However, additional shortwaves in the west
to northwest flow will move through during this period. Also
beginning late in the afternoon to early evening, a right rear
quadrant of northern jet will begin to affect the area. This lift
moves through the night and strengthens. As a result, kept the
higher pops, especially in the southern portion of the area, going
for a little longer. Rainfall should be done by late in the night.
With cloud cover, precipitation, and upslope winds...tended go
toward the cooler guidance.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...mid and upper level lift should be out
of the area so expect this to be the first dry period in a while.
Should have plenty of sun with north to northeast winds. Did warm up
temperatures but kept them mostly in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

For the extended period, the GFS and European are showing dry, warm
conditions. A ridge is influencing the CWA for the entire period,
yet the ridge never fully engulfs the region. There is a fairly
pronounced trough in the eastern CONUS that is preventing the ridge
from moving east once it reaches the high plains. There is also a
closed low over Texas that also helps with inhibiting the
eastward movement of the ridge. Even with the lack of ridge movement
the CWA will remain dry and warm through Sunday; temperatures in the
80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main challenge will be the
wind direction overnight due to thunderstorm outflow creating a
mess of the wind field. Did a best guess of the wind direction
given the anticipated storm movement, but have little confidence
with the wind field forecast. The winds should return to the south
by 12z due to the storms being over with by that time. Another
round of storms is expected, with storm activity increasing during
the late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL



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