Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 301131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
531 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Weak upper disturbances rotating around the anticyclone centered
over Oklahoma and a very moist air mass will combine to produce
scattered thunderstorms over the region today through Wednesday.
Due to weak instability and shear, no severe storms are
anticipated. However, with 0-6km mean winds of 5kts or less, slow
moving storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. In addition,
areas of fog, occasionally dense, will develop in the overnight
hours and persist through mid morning. Rain chances will gradually
diminish Wednesday night and Thursday morning as a cold front
backs into the area from the northeast. Much drier area on the
cool side of the front will slowly advect into the region, but it
may take most of the day Thursday for the showers/thunderstorms to
finally end.

High temperatures will be below normal through the period due to
cloud cover and precipitation, while low temperatures will be near

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 123 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

The beginning of the extended period, Friday, will have the CWA
under a ridge that is starting to push east out of the region. This
is due to a strong upper level low pressure system moving into the
Pacific Northwest. As this low pressure begins to slowly move east
the ridge will slowly move east as well. With this brings southwest
flow into the region. That in addition to 700 mb shortwaves will
bring chances for precipitation each day during the period. Current
model runs show the GFS to be more amplified with the trough in the
western CONUS than the European, so precipitation chances and timing
are still uncertain. Come Monday the trough will be closer to the
region and could potentially bring a frontal passage over the area.
This is still uncertain due to the model discrepancies. The European
has the front east of the region and the GFS has the front moving
through the CWA late Monday night. If the front does move through
the region this could potentially create greater chances for storm

Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s over the
region through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Areas of fog will continue through mid morning with visibilities
at both KGLD and KMCK occasionally dropping to VLIFR. After the
fog burns off, scattered thunderstorms will develop. Best chances
of one of those impacting the terminals with lower ceilings or
visibilities will be in the late afternoon to early evening hours.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Fog/low ceilings may
redevelop again overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning with
a very moist air mass remaining in place.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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