Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
517 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 117 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge centered over Baja
California. Westerly flow over the CONUS contains some small short
wave troughs. However the air is quite dry, leading to very sparse
cloud coverage.

For today and tonight, am expecting little variation in the
weather from the last couple of days due to the persistent upper
level pattern. Only change will be the shift of the warmer
temperatures from the west to the east for today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 117 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Wednesday through Friday the upper level ridge will slide east
across the southern CONUS. High temperatures will be fairly
consistent, while lows will gradually warm during this time due
to the increasing dew points.

The next weather change will occur on Saturday as a cold front
moves through accompanied by an upper level long wave trough. Am
not expecting any rainfall with this frontal passage due to the
dry environment. Behind the cold front northerly winds will
increase and become gusty.

Models disagree as to how the second trough early next week will
develop as it moves onto the plains. Most model data has the
trough being an open wave. One model has the trough developing
into a closed low east of the forecast area. Am more confident
with the open wave solution. This solution would also support
bringing a cold front through. As a result the forecasted highs
for Monday may be too warm.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. Light north winds will turn
to the south today. This evening the winds will turn to the
west ahead of a surface ridge moving in Thursday.




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