Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1152 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

For tonight, relatively quite weather is expected. There will be downslope
southwest wind all night, so low temperatures across the southern zones
might be relatively mild - mid 40s. To the northwest, cooler and drier
air will result in more typical lows - upper 20s to lower 30s.

For tomorrow, a strong cold front traverse the region from the morning
into the early afternoon hours. There will be a large temperature gradient
in highs tomorrow with 50s to the north and 70s to the south. There
are elevated fire weather concerns, which is discussed below.

For precipitation, not looking very impressive with a progressive trof
moving through and much drier air advecting in from the NW. The low
chance pops look good for now. There will be a strong baroclinic zone
moving through and both the global and mesoscale models do show some
widely scattered rain showers developing post-frontal in the early
afternoon to evening hours. The NMMB almost looks convective, but mid-
level lapse rates are not that steep. Most of the precipitation should
be liquid. If there is any snow, it would be very light and the dendritic
growth zone quickly becomes unsaturated.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Much cooler temperatures will prevail for Wednesday - 50s area
wide. Winds will remain on the breeze side. There might be a small area
of significant (RFW) fire weather hazard even with the cooler
temperatures but as the dewpoints continue to drop and winds
remain elevated. A moderation of temperatures is expected to close
out the business week as dry air prevails and weak warm air
advection eventually ensues. Next weekend is looking pleasant with
70s as stronger downslope and WAA develops upstream of a synoptic
trof to the northwest. Another strong cold front is possible just
outside the long term forecast domain.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

During this forecast period, winds will be shifting as a
formidable front moves south in response to an approaching storm
system. Winds will slowly veer from the southwest overnight to the
west by mid to late morning. Around midday, winds will continue to
shift around to the northwest, although initially, speeds are not
expected to be all that strong -- generally in the 10 to 13 knot
range. Winds will then pick up fairly significantly late in the
period (Tuesday Night), as cold frontogenesis really ramps up.
Winds will likely peak around 22 to 26 knots through much of the
mid to late evening hours out of the north to northwest. It does
not appear there will be any MVFR or lower flight category,
although it is possible some MVFR conditions could clip HYS for a
few hours behind the front in the 03-06z time frame at the end of
this forecast period.


Issued at 111 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

There is somewhat of a fire weather concern for the next several days.
However, discussing only today and tomorrow. The lowest relative humidities
are prevailing across the Panhandles. Across far SW KS, humidities
are falling and will let the current RFW ride out to exp. For tomorrow,
there will be quite the temperature gradient in the downslope warmed
air ahead of the front. Highs in the 70s are forecast by the ARW/EC/GFS.
Even taking higher temps, lower dewpoints, and stronger winds, do not
have enough confidence to go with an RFW for tomorrow. Yes, fire weather
conditions will certainly be high end elevated for the counties bordering
Oklahoma. Will let the mid shift take a look at 00Z NWP data as uncertainty
is just too high attm.


DDC  43  58  28  53 /   0  20  40   0
GCK  36  52  25  51 /   0  20  40   0
EHA  43  65  25  51 /   0  20  20   0
LBL  41  70  27  54 /   0  20  20   0
HYS  36  53  28  50 /   0  20  30   0
P28  44  74  33  56 /   0  10  30   0




LONG TERM...Sugden
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