Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261207
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
607 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

TODAY WILL BE A DAY OF LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW, WITH A LITTLE WIND.
A COLD FRONT CROSSED SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH STRATUS CLOUDS FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. MOST CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN IN THE BKN-0OVC010-116 RANGE, WITH LOWER CIGS IN THE LIC
AND ITR SITES OVC006. I HAVE NO DOUBTS THE STEADY CAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL LOWER CIGS IN OUR CWA INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BEFORE
12Z TODAY. THERE IS STILL A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, AND NORTH WINDS WILL BLOW AT 15G25 MPH
MOST OF TODAY. A RATHER SHARP AMPLIFIED TROUGH JUST WEST OF US
OVER COLORADO WILL SWING EAST AND ADD SOME UPPER LIFT FOR SNOWFALL
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE INHERITED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST IN OUR WEST
AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, WITH 4 INCHES
PREDICTED. WILL KEEP THE SAME TIME FRAME GOING AS WELL, WITH THE
FAR WEST GETTING SOME SNOW THIS MORNING, AND THEN THE SNOW
SPREADING EAST LATER THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATION PAST 4 PM CST, BUT IT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
ADVISORY BY THEN. SO HAVE LEFT THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP
TO THE DAY SHIFT. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY TOWARDS THE EAST,
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE HIGHER LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING, AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE JUST A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW IN
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES, SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO ASHLAND.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY FLURRIES WILL LINGER WEST OF HIGHWAY
283, WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FORESEEN THERE EARLY
TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND
TONIGHT, THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DRAMATICALLY, RANGING
FROM 13 TO 14F DEGREES IN THE HAMILTON, SCOTT CITY AND TREGO
COUNTY CORRIDOR, TO THE 17 TO 19F DEGREE RANGE FROM HAYS TO DODGE
CITY TO LIBERAL, AND NEAR THE 20F DEGREE MARK SOUTHEAST OF A PRATT
TO MEADE COUNTY LINE. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD START OUT FROM THE
NORTH AT 12 TO 14 MPH, THEN DIMINISH TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY DRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND SET UP A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP PUSH DOWN ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND BECOMES A LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MID WEEK THEN EJECTS EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM TREKS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO REACH INTO
THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS MONDAY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO
MID 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE
THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN SLOWLY REBOUND TO THE 30S BY FRIDAY
WITH LOWS INCREASING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OBSERVED AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
DECREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  18  31  17 /  50  30   0   0
GCK  28  14  30  16 / 100  40   0   0
EHA  30  16  31  17 /  70  30   0   0
LBL  30  19  31  16 /  50  30   0   0
HYS  30  16  29  16 /  90  90   0   0
P28  41  21  33  19 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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