Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 051100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

The main forecast challenge for today is areas of dense fog early
this morning and how far west and south into southwestern Kansas.
RAP model in good agreement with NAM supporting areas of dense fog
and low stratus into around 14-15Z this morning from Scott City to
Medicine Lodge and east including Dodge City. Higher dewpoints are
forecast to come into the area as east to northeasterly winds
develop as surface low pressure moves into the Texas Panhandle area.
Will probably need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory shortly. After
areas of dense fog and stratus burns off by mid morning, skies
should be mostly sunny with easterly winds around 8 to 15 mph. Highs
today will range from the mid 90s far west near Liberal to Syracuse
and west, with low 90s to upper 80s elsewhere. The coolest in parts
of north central Kansas.

For tonight, moist easterly upslope winds continue at around 10 mph
with possibly more areas of dense fog or stratus developing after
midnight into the early morning. Lows will be in the upper 60s to
around 70 at Medicine Lodge.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

For Thursday, areas of early morning dense fog will burn off by mid
morning with moist easterly upslope winds of around 10 mph. Skies
will become mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Question is will the easterly winds keep highs down a bit than
currently forecast. NAM only has lower 90s, while other models have
warmer temps.

For Friday, upper level ridging moves into the Central Plains with
winds becoming southeasterly at 10 to 15 mph. Highs could be around
100 at Liberal to the mid and upper 90s elsewhere. Again will the
moist upslope winds keep highs slightly cooler than forecast?

For the Weekend into Tuesday, upper level warm ridging moves slowly
east on Saturday, with more southwesterly to westerly zonal flow
aloft establishing on Sunday. A shortwave trough moves across the
Northern Plains on Monday into Tuesday, pushing a cold front across
western Kansas on Monday with cooler temps Monday into early next
week. Thunderstorm chances look the best with the cold front but
could have scattered thunderstorms north of the Dodge City area on
Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s on
Saturday and Sunday, then cool into the upper 80s to around 90 on
Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mild and from the upper
60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

The forecast concern is what to do with visibilities. On the
public side, we have a dense fog advisory, however, observations
have been slow to trend this out. Will keep the 3 sm/br vis in the
tafs for now. Will watch and amend as necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  68  97  70 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  93  68  98  69 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  96  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  97  69  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  88  67  95  68 /  10   0  10  10
P28  93  70  98  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-077>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden


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