Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 170546
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1246 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
The forecast tonight and tomorrow is fairly straight-forward with
the only real challenge being afternoon high temperatures in the
eastern forecast area along with afternoon winds. The flow will
amplify again with another storm developing across the Northern
Rockies Monday. This will lead to fairly significant low pressure
development at the surface along the lee trough all across the High
Plains. All the models show a 987 to 989mb low developing by 00Z
Tuesday near the KS-CO border, supporting an enhancement in the
isallobaric wind. The combined increase in pressure gradient and
pressure falls will support strong surface winds by late in the day.
We increased the wind speeds in the grids to lower-mid 20s knots. It
would not be a surprise to see some advisory-level winds by late
afternoon across portions of southwest and south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level trough moving southeast
out of the Northern Rockies into the plains of Nebraska Tuesday
bringing precip chances to the Dakotas southward into Nebraska and
possibly portions of Kansas. As the system approaches, an attendant
cold front will push through western Kansas early Tuesday providing
a focus for increased near surface forcing. However, a real lack of
low/mid level moisture will limit the potential for rainfall across
much of central and southwest Kansas. A few sprinkles or brief
periods of isolated light rain may occur across central Kansas
near the I-70 corridor. Drier conditions are then expected to
persist through mid week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal.
Much cooler temperatures are likely Tuesday as a cold front pushes
through western Kansas early in the day. Colder air will surge
southward into the area with the H85 0C isotherm diving as far south
as the I-70 corridor in central Kansas mid to late Tuesday
afternoon. Look for highs only up into the 50s(F) across west
central Kansas to possibly the lower to mid 60s(F) in south central
Kansas. More seasonal temperatures are expected through the end of
the week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Similar temperatures
are expected Wednesday as surface high pressure moves southeast
across western Kansas resulting in little change to the overall
air mass. Warmer temperatures return Thursday as lee side troughing
quickly develops bringing back a low level southerly flow to western
Kansas. Highs will easily climb into the 60s(F) with a few lower
70s(F) possible in some locations.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
VFR conditions will prevail overnight with a few high clouds.
Winds will generally be from the south southwest at 5 to 10 knots
through sunrise. Winds then increase to 15 to 20 knots by late
morning with gusts of 25 to 30 knots at times. Breezy conditions
continue through the afternoon hours.
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
Critical fire weather conditions will develop Monday across much of
west central and southwest Kansas. NAM12 0-1km AGL mean winds of
20-25 knots during the afternoon, which fully supports the wind
speed criteria. As temperatures warm into the 70s by afternoon and
dewpoints fall into the upper teens to lower 20s, relative humidity
will fall to at or below the 15 percent criteria for Red Flag
conditions. Farther east, mixing depth will be a little shallower,
which will result in slightly increased dewpoints and lower
temperatures (afternoon temperatures mid to upper 60s) keeping
afternoon humidity in the 20 to 25 percent range for the most part.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 54 29 60 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 38 52 27 60 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 39 53 27 59 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 40 55 28 61 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 38 54 28 60 / 0 10 0 0
P28 40 60 32 61 / 0 10 0 0
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.