Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 202305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY
FAVORABLE, ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN A BAND OF INCREASED H7 FRONTOGENESIS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE READILY AVAILABLE WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF WESTWARD WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) CLOSER TO THE
COLORADO BORDER.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LOWER 60S(F)
EXPERIENCED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE LOWER 60S(F) STILL LIKELY
FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS WELL. THE
NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES ONLY UP INTO THE MID TEENS(C) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER TEENS(C) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER PLAYING A POSSIBLE FACTOR EARLY IN THE
DAY, HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER
80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STARTING ON MONDAY, THERE IS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND IT WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS, AND HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF
KANSAS MONDAY.  THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL CHANGE INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.  THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. THERE
WILL BE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POP CHANCES INTRODUCED INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO 50 TO 60
PERCENT POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELY
CHANCES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL WASH AWAY WEDNESDAY, BUT UPPER WAVES WILL
STILL BE CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THUS, THERE
WILL STILL EXIST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY.  FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, SMALL POPS WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORTED CONVECTION
(ELEVATED).  BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE EAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS, AND THERE WILL BE A STANDARD LEE SIDE TROUGH FORMING BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.  SMALL CONVECTION
CHANCES WILL EXIST BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS,
JUST IN CASE THE LEE SIDE TRIGGERS SOME STORMS.

I DID NOT CHANGE THE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ANY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM 80F TO 85F DEGREES, AND LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 55F TO 60F
DEGREES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF DODGE CITY TO NEAR GREAT BEND AT
00Z SUNDAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE DODGE CITY AREA WILL END BY 02Z. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THAT THE 18Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS, AND HRRR BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE 7000FT AGL. PREVAILING WINDS NORTH OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  80  54  80 /  30  20  10  20
GCK  59  78  55  77 /  30  20  10  40
EHA  58  77  59  75 /  30  20  20  30
LBL  62  80  57  80 /  30  20  10  30
HYS  57  77  49  76 /  10   0   0  10
P28  63  82  54  81 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT


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