Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020553
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT HELPED PUSH AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS OF 2 PM, THIS "OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY" EXTENDED FROM COLDWATER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. EVEN NORTH OF
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, THE LOWER LEVELS WERE RECOVERING AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACHED 90F WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F AT MEDICINE
LODGE, ALTHOUGH THERE WAS STILL A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AT THE
TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER. A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WAS
BECOMING STATIONARY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF BARBER COUNTY IN
OKLAHOMA ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WITH
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS PROBABLY STAYING DRY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS BARBER COUNTY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS; WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD TO LARNED AND STAFFORD WHERE STRATUS PERSISTED. OTHER
AREAS WERE WARMING A LITTLE FASTER.

DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT, THE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A
LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT,
WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM DODGE CITY SOUTH AND EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS IS
TYPICAL, THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
12Z (7 AM), RESULTING IN A SHIFT IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO
EASTERN KANSAS BY THAT TIME. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 3000
J/KG ELEVATED CAPE; BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE
MODEST ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE, WITH THUNDERSTORM CLOUD BASES
AROUND 800MB AT MEDICINE LODGE AND 760MB AT DODGE CITY. USING 25KT
OF CLOUD DEPTH SHEAR, ALONG WITH 3000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE, THE
LHP (LOCALLY DEVELOPED, LARGE HAIL PARAMETER) SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLF BALLS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST NEAR INTERSTATE 70 WHERE LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. READINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S AT HAYS, WITH
WARMER LOWS NEAR 70 AT MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH CHANCES AROUND 50
PERCENT. COULD HAVE SOME STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
STRONGER.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SUNDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FALLING THE COLD FRONT, THEN WARM ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
COOL INTO THE 70S FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ABOUT 7000 FT AGL WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GCK, DDC, AND
EVEN HYS TO JUSTIFY A VCTS GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WE EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN WEAK, BUT
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY AT GCK AND DDC, SO WE WILL INCLUDE
SOME IFR (AND BRIEFLY LIFR AT GCK) IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME
ROUGHLY. THE STRATUS LAYER WILL LIFT IN CEILING AFTER SUNRISE,
HOWEVER IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO
SCATTER OUT. SOME OF THIS LOW STRATUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD TO HYS
LATE MORNING, SO WE WILL FORECAST SOME MVFR 1000-1500 CEILING FROM
LATE MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON UP THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  97  73  94 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  67  97  72  95 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  66  96  70  92 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  69  99  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  67  95  73  93 /  20  10  10  10
P28  72  97  74  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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