Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1249 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Today is the calm ahead of the storm. Pleasant temperatures are expected
today as the warm sector prevails across SW Kansas. Highs will range
from the 60s north to 70s south. There will be a wind shift as a frontal
system moves across the forecast district. Any precipitation is not
expected until this evening. This is the system that will continue
to impact our region through the weekend. Lows Saturday morning will
be coldest across the western zones - low 30s, and a frost/freeze headline
might be needed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Most of the attention was spent on this weekend. A strong synoptic
wave will move across the region and deepen across the Southern and
Central Plains. Southwest Kansas could be ideally situated on the deformation/trowal
axis side for heavy precipitation. This includes a heavy wet snow that
is possible late Saturday and into Sunday. As the synoptic system deepens,
strong low level winds will only add to the problem. The models tonight
are continuing to trend colder and wetter as they did last night. QPF
from the GFS/EC/ARW/NMMB/GEM are all very impressive with heavy amounts
across the forecast district. Right now, have 1-3" across the forecast
district through the storm duration. Bufkit plumes are also continuing
to show a trend to higher snowfall amounts across far western Kansas,
as 850-hPa temperatures fall below 0C. Have increased snowfall amounts
across far western Kansas with warning amounts now forecast. The heavy
snowfall axis will probably need to be fine tuned as the storm draws
near and uncertainty decreases. There is enough signal though in both
global and mesoscale models to start being concerned about a high impact
event with heavy rainfall to start out the storm... transitioning to
a heavy wet snow through the second half of the weekend. The heavy
wet snow could have serious impacts and could lead to downed tree limbs
and power outages. It also should be noted that the highs and lows
during the weekend are subject to a bust. Temps could be considerably
colder than what is currently forecast should the precip hang around
as well as with heavy snowfall/snowpack. The ground is warm, but the
long duration of the snow in combination with the dynamics/lift (trowal/deformation
band) leads to a concern. The synoptic low may slow down Sunday, which
could lead to additional problems. Confidence on this is not high,
as some of the models eject the disturbance quickly with isentropic
downglide developing in its wake. Issued a winter weather watch to
address the overall concern. The watch area and snow amounts will
need to be adjusted as the smaller details become clear. Have added
a buffer to the end warning time on Sunday in case the low slows down
and impacts the forecast district longer.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

VFR flying conditions through this evening. Widespread rainfall
begins after 0Z, which will continue through the TAF period, with
KGCK receiving snow starting tomorrow morning. Due to lowered
ceilings and reduced visibilities, IFR conditions will prevail at
KHYS starting at 3Z, and at 6Z for KDDC and KGCK. IFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period.

Wind will flow from from the north/northeast through tomorrow,
however, the 10-15 knot wind will increase to gusting at 20-30
knots after midnight and will continue through the TAF period.


DDC  68  36  38  33 /  20 100 100  90
GCK  64  33  35  32 /  40 100 100  90
EHA  64  31  34  29 /  60 100 100  90
LBL  67  36  37  32 /  50 100 100  90
HYS  60  37  39  35 /  10 100 100  90
P28  73  43  48  38 /  10 100 100  90


Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening
for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.



LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Reynolds is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.