823
FNUS73 KDLH 112243
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Moss Lake Unit 1...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
543 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 12.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front swooping through the region tonight will bring
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening, but
mainly to areas northeast of the spot location. While unlikely, if
thunderstorms develop, they will be capable of producing gusty
and erratic winds.

Expect a wind shift on Sunday morning to the northwest following
the cold front. Drier air advecting into the region on Sunday
combined with deep mixing will result in min RH values dropping to
25% or less for the vast majority of northeast MN. Confidence in
these low RH values is high. However, confidence in gusty winds is
lower due to building high pressure.

Looking ahead to Monday and Tuesday, min RH will be similar
between the two days with values in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
North winds on Monday will be shifting more easterly to
southeasterly on Tuesday. Widespread chances for rain arrive on
Wednesday with periodic chances for rain persisting into the
weekend.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................54 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 7 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 7 to 13
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2500 ft AGL
                    increasing to 7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest 22
                    to 23 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /19000 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /19300 knot-ft/ increasing to excellent
                    (129200-148300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............58  62  65  67  69  70  71  71  71  70
RH..............66  54  46  36  31  28  26  24  24  24
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   9   9   10  11  11  12  11
20 FT wind gust.11  12  13  14  14  15  16  16  18  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.4 2.5 4.1 5.6 6.9 7.4 7.3 7.2 6.8
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.12  15  15  18  20  22  22  23  23  22
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10009   19  34  68  98  133 141 148 145 130

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 41.
RH..................Max 78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL decreasing to 1600 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 22 mph decreasing to around 12 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (83800-118400 knot-ft) decreasing to
                    poor (5500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............69     63     56     50     47     44
RH..............25     32     44     54     62     69
20 ft wind......N 11   N 10   N 9    N 7    N 6    N 6
20 ft wind gust.16     15     14     12     9      9
Mix hgt (ft)....6000   1600   700    700    600    700
Transport wind..NW 22  NW 17  N 14   N 12   N 12   N 12
Haines index....5      4      4      4      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/1000118    28     9      8      7      7

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 63.
RH..................Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL increasing to 4600 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (7600-23200 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good (49200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............41     44     53     57     60     62
RH..............78     69     49     43     37     34
20 ft wind......N 5    N 5    N 6    N 8    N 9    N 9
20 ft wind gust.9      9      11     13     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1800   3200   3900   4400   4600
Transport wind..N 10   N 9    N 10   N 12   N 13   N 13
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10008      15     29     39     49     51

$$
Forecaster...Linda
Requested by...Mike Klick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413789.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.klick@usda.gov