673
FNUS73 KDLH 091003
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Ray Cook WMA South Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Duluth MN
503 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on May 09.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Sunny skies in store today. Expect northeast 20-foot winds around
7-9 mph to turn northerly this afternoon with minimum relative
humidity dropping to 30%. Surface high pressure and calm winds
tonight is expected to allow stout near-surface inversions to
form and highly limit any smoke dispersal right after sunset
today. Scattered rain chances build Friday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected to form Friday afternoon, and an
isolated strong thunderstorm can`t be ruled out during the late
afternoon. Localized rainfall amounts of one to two tenths
likely, but there are better chances of widespread rainfall being
less than one tenth tomorrow. Winds will be breezier, turning out
of the northwest by mid-Friday morning with 20-ft gusts of 20-25
mph during the afternoon. Minimum afternoon RH values will be
slightly higher, ranging from 35-40%.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 14 to 17 mph shifting to the north 13
                    to 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (6500-22900 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (71000-88600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............45  44  47  50  53  56  58  62  62  64  64  65
RH..............72  76  68  63  57  51  47  41  39  35  35  33
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   8   9   9   8   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.15  16  15  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.5 3.9 5.5 6.5 7.1 7.4 7.6
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.14  14  17  15  15  15  14  15  15  14  14  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10007   8   18  18  23  32  47  71  85  85  89  83

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south around 5
                    mph overnight becoming light becoming south 5
                    to 6 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 12 mph shifting to the east 6 to 7
                    mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    south 8 to 12 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (70100 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (2600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............65     60     51     47     44     42
RH..............33     41     59     65     70     76
20 ft wind......NE 5   NE 4   SE 3   S 4    S 4    S 5
20 ft wind gust.12     9      8      8      9      9
Mix hgt (ft)....7000   700    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..N 12   NE 6   SE 8   S 10   S 10   S 12
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100070     4      3      4      4      4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the late morning and afternoon.
                    Slight chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2 until 1600, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    west 7 to 9 mph late in the morning, then
                    shifting to the northwest 10 to 16 mph late in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL late in
                    the morning, then increasing to 6300 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon increasing to 8300 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon decreasing to 5700
                    ft AGL decreasing to 3600 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 12 mph shifting to the west
                    around 10 mph late in the morning, then
                    increasing to northwest 20 to 26 mph late in
                    the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800-12700 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (73200 knot-ft) late in the morning,
                    then increasing to excellent (135700 knot-ft)
                    early in the afternoon increasing to excellent
                    (163300-191400 knot-ft) early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to excellent (86700-125100 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to excellent (63900 knot-ft) late in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.07 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....              CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     30     30     50     50
LAL.............1      1      1      1      2      1
Temp............42     49     60     63     66     64
RH..............79     68     53     46     38     41
20 ft wind......S 5    SW 6   W 9    NW 12  NW 16  NW 17
20 ft wind gust.9      9      13     20     22     23
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    1400   6300   7000   4300
Transport wind..S 12   SW 10  NW 10  NW 25  NW 26  NW 23
Haines index....4      4      4      4      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/10004      5      13     136    163    87

$$
Forecaster...Cory
Requested by...Nathan Thom
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413544.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.thom@state.mn.us