Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 211106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
606 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will continue at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Friday. Southwest to south winds 5 to 15 knots will increase to
around 15 to 25 knots with gusts between 30 and 35 knots after 14Z
to 16Z today and are expected to continue through 12Z Friday at
all three TAF sites.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/


We will see the start of an active weather pattern beginning
tomorrow (Fri) but as early as Thursday afternoon. Nearly every
period has some sort of precipitation chances through the extended
which could lead to some sort of potential flooding across parts
of the area. Also noteworthy are the cooler temperatures next week.

In the upper levels, a large trough will be evident over western
parts of the CONUS through the next several days. Models are in very
good agreement with one another in the handling of the deep trough
and the progression eastward. The trough will begin to erode
slightly by Sunday, but there will still be evidence of a west coast
trough through the next 7 days. This will bring plenty of moisture
into the area with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s through Monday. Some
areas could see decent rainfall amounts as QPF totals are progged
around 2 to 4 inches across a good portion of the forecast area
through the next 7 days.

During this stretch of weather, thunderstorms are possible with the
likelihood for some of these storms to be on the strong side for
numerous periods. For today, a surface trough will be centered
over western parts of the forecast area. Plenty of instability
will be noted over eastern/southeastern parts of the forecast area
around 2000-4000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE, but lacking will be
shear values as little to no bulk shear (0-6km) is evident this
afternoon with no good trigger mechanism. Storms will likely be
diurnally driven with little activity for our area after 10pm.
Strong storms are possible but don`t expect much widespread severe
weather today. As for severe weather, in the mid-term (Thru
Sunday) it appears Friday/Friday night and Saturday/Saturday night
could be our earliest chance for severe weather across mostly
western portions of the outlook area with storms pushing eastward.
Otherwise, its too early to say with much confidence outside of
Sunday when and where severe weather is likely. That being said,
its certainly possible for at least strong storms through the
extended period at the very least. Flooding will have to be
assessed as well if any location(s) receive rainfall round after

Tuesday and Wednesday could be our first stretch of cool weather as
highs for a good portion of the outlook area are only forecast to
reach the mid 60s which would be well below normal for this time of



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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