Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 292331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
631 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
Surface winds will slowly shift towards a southerly direction
overnight while remaining under 10kts. By tomorrow afternoon, we
could see a few gusts reaching towards the 20kt mark out of the


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

An upper ridge will prevail across the Panhandles through Friday
night allowing for a mostly dry weather pattern across the forecast
area. An upper trough will approach the Panhandles Saturday and
Saturday night with a surface trough over the eastern Plains of New
Mexico or near the Texas and New Mexico state line. Although some
isolated convection will be possible mainly over the eastern Oklahoma
and northeastern/eastern portions of the Texas Panhandles Saturday
night...confidence is low with low level moisture lacking and better
upper level support farther to the north. Will include a slight
chance for now however later shifts may need to readjust if
necessary. The upper trough moves progressively off to the east of
the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday with subsidence expected
late this weekend into early next week.

Drier conditions ahead of the next big vigorous closed upper low
forecast to move to near the Four Corners forecast by the
GFS...late Monday night or across the central Rockies as forecast by
the ECMWF. Differing and flip-flopping solutions by the medium range
models leads to a low confidence forecast for the Monday night
through Tuesday time frame of the extended period. The GFS is more
bullish and agressive with the convection across most of the forecast
area given the farther south track of the closed upper low while the
ECMWF dry-slots the forecast area and keeps the convection east of
the Texas and Oklahoma state line Monday through Tuesday night.
Decided to opt for a compromise solution between the two models and
forecast slight chance to chance POPS along and east of the caprock
Tuesday through Tuesday night with slight chance POPS across most of
the forecast area Monday night. Severe weather will be possible
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening mainly along and off the
caprock where low level moisture and better instability/CAPE and
shear is forecast to be present. Main upper system shifts eastward by
late Tuesday night and Wednesday with subsidence and drier conditions
expected by the middle and end of next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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