Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 061120 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
620 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN MID TO UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE A BKN
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH SOME VIRGA WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A VERY ISOLATED CROSSING OUT
OF NM IS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY...TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AREA WIDE.  AS CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MOVES SLOWLY EAST...DISPLACING RIDGE EAST
OF PANHANDLES...LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SPARSE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN PANHANDLES.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH EASTERN SECTIONS IMPROVING TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE.  POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BOTH DAYS WITH SUNDAY
APPEARING TO BE MORE LIKELY.  STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF DRYLINE.  GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT DRYLINE WILL
MIX RAPIDLY EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDING BY 00Z
MONDAY.

CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH PANHANDLES BY MONDAY EVENING.  NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF INDUCES STRONGER BAROCLINIC PUSH INTO PANHANDLES TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESUMING. 03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS DRY SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES ON
TUESDAY.  03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                86  57  86  52  82 /   0  10  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  88  58  87  54  83 /   0   0  30  20  30
BOISE CITY OK              83  54  81  45  77 /   5  10  20   5  10
BORGER TX                  87  60  86  55  83 /   0   5  20  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              87  58  88  50  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
CANYON TX                  87  57  87  52  83 /   0  10  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               85  59  84  57  85 /   0  10  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 85  54  84  45  79 /   5  10  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  87  57  87  49  81 /   0   0  20  10  10
HEREFORD TX                87  57  87  51  81 /   0  10  10  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                87  60  87  57  83 /   0   0  30  30  30
PAMPA TX                   86  58  86  54  81 /   0   5  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                86  60  85  58  84 /   0   5  30  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              86  60  85  60  87 /   0   5  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

MJG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.