Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200524
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. VORT LOBES SENT OFF FROM THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE SUCH LOBE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WEEK TO SEE PRECIP AREA WIDE. A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEDNESDAY MORNING A PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 35KT-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25KT COULD ALLOW US TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST PWATS ARE
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE COULD
SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WAS A DRASTIC SWING WITH THE 12 GFS WHICH PLACES IT IS STARK
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
STICKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BY THIS POINT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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