Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 301657
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1157 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

A wedge of surface high pressure will remain in place extending
from the Lake Superior region through the Southern Plains this
afternoon. Mainly sunny conditions are expected with the caveat of
cirrus today, as the surface high provides another day of
generally light easterly surface winds. Models indicate
temperatures not too far off from the highs experienced on
Thursday; in the low to mid 70s once again with warmer highs near
80 in the far southwest. The dry pattern continues into Saturday,
although temperatures should be warming into the upper 70s and low
80s. The weak upper ridging over the High Plains and Rockies region
has for a few model runs indicated the potential for a shortwave
moving through the flow later tonight. Still a relatively dry
environment across western KS as far as surface moisture, the NAM
with it`s 500+ J/kg MUCAPE continues to develop showers/storms
late Saturday overnight and maybe into early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Following a warming trend into the mid 80s by Monday, a chance
for numerous thunderstorms exists in the Tuesday night- Wednesday
timeframe, at least for central Kansas counties. The the ECMWF and
GFS has been consistent in driving a strong upper low into the
northern High Plains. The pattern suggests it may be dry in the
far west with the focus for convective activity across the central
KS counties or I.E. Dodge and eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

A generally dry airmass over western Kansas will result in VFR conditions
through the period. Southerly winds will gust to around 15-20 knots
at times this afternoon at Garden City and Dodge City but will decrease
toward the end of the day. Increasing mid level moisture and elevated
instability could bring some widely scattered showers to southwest Kansas
late tonight into Saturday morning. Expected coverage will preclude
mentioning any SHRA in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  53  79  55 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  77  52  80  54 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  82  52  81  54 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  79  54  82  55 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  73  51  76  54 /   0   0  10  20
P28  73  53  77  56 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.