Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
527 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG RIDGING UPPER JET WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY, INTENSIFYING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY A BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY,
CREATING A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT  ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND STRONG SOUTHERLY  WINDS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ADVECTION  TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMUP MAY BE
IMPEDED BY INCREASING STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY  THE NMM/ARW AND THE NAM ALL
SHOW SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF A TRACE TO 0.01" QPF THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION. THIS MIGHT INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS THERMODYNAMIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IMPRESSIVE DRY LAYERS IN THE MID LEVELS
AND NEAR THE GROUND WHICH ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO GETTING
HYDROMETEORS TO THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE LIKELY
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY. OVERCAST SKIES WILL
LIKELY IMPEDE INSOLATION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH
ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT ON THE LOWER PLAINS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
HOWEVER, WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
SITUATED OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THE PAST FEW DAYS AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY RISE A LITTLE OR HOLD STEADY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH EARLIEST
IN THE DAY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE FALLING BACK AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT OVERLY MOIST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS DURING THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
MOISTEN UP SOMEWHAT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVES OVER
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
A STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE CLOUDS WILL FORM BUT FOR NOW WILL
CARRY MVFR CIGS AT GARDEN CITY BY MID MORNING AND HEDGE DODGE CITY
WITH A SCATTERED LOW DECK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND HAYS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WILL KEEP THE HAYS TAF DRY FOR NOW DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS TO PREVAIL AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  32  42  15 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  37  30  38  13 /  10  10  10  30
EHA  41  35  44  15 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  40  30  45  16 /  10  10  10  30
HYS  34  31  37  12 /  10  10  10  30
P28  35  33  46  18 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD



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