Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191930
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
130 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Widespread stubborn stratus across SW KS at midday, will likely go
pretty much nowhere through this afternoon. The combination of
weak winds surface and aloft, and very poor mixing, will allow the
stratus and areas of fog to be persistent. At midday, the only
areas experiencing sun are the far western zones, portions of
Hamilton, Stanton and Morton counties. Cloud ceilings may show
some gradual improvments from west to east for a few hours this
afternoon, but for most, the gray sky will continue. In the limited
areas that receive sunshine, 50s will prevail this afternoon.
Elsewhere, temperatures are expected to hold steady in the 40s.

Tonight...Areas of fog and widespread stratus. With no change in
airmass, weak flow and a moist boundary layer will produce
widespread low clouds and areas of fog. Another dense fog advisory
may be necessary. With the clouds and moisture preventing
radiational cooling, temperatures will again struggle to fall
tonight, remaining well above normal. Some good news for those
awaiting power restoration.

Friday...Strong, negatively-tilted shortwave over SE Colorado at
6 am, pivots to SW KS at midday, and to NE KS by 6 pm. This
disturbance is quite strong, but moisture aloft continues to
appear limited. Will need to watch this shortwave for any
surprises tomorrow, but current expectations are a modest
scattering of light rain showers favoring the northern counties
Friday afternoon. Have noticed 12z NAM has lifted index
approaching zero in places tomorrow, so showers will be convective
in nature, with isolated thunder not out of the question. Areas
of fog and low clouds will likely persist again Friday morning,
but the shortwave aloft should help this erode faster on Friday,
by noon or so. Continued mild for January, with highs from the mid
40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Temperatures will remain mild, and well above January normals,
through Tuesday. A pattern change to seasonably colder weather is
expected the middle of next week.

Saturday...Dry with increasing clouds, perhaps some light rain
across the SW counties late. Vigorous shortwave and jet max aloft
race through the Desert SW, forcing surface cyclogenesis across
the Texas panhandle by afternoon. Vast majority of the forcing
will be south of SW KS, but most models suggest some light rain
may at least approach the SW counties in the afternoon.
Temperatures remain mild; well into the 50s east with the most
sun, ranging down to the upper 40s SW under the increasing clouds.

Saturday night...12z GFS tracks deformation zone of strong cyclone
across the far SE zones, with measurable rain (1/4 to 1/2 inch)
from near Ashland to near Medicine Lodge. Thermal profiles from
forecast soundings clearly support liquid rain from this storm,
with a changeover to some wet snowflakes near the end of the
precipitation. 12z ECWMF is further south with its rain shield,
relegated to mostly Oklahoma. Kept pops somewhat conservative
across the SE zones for now, in case the ECMWF solution verifies.
Regardless, this system is very progressive, and it will not have
time to generate much QPF in SW KS.

Sunday...Sunny, breezy and dry. Gusty NW winds of 15-30 mph are
expected behind the departing cyclone. With little if any cold air
advection, the mild temperatures will continue with lower 50s
common.

Monday...The warmest day of this forecast. Large trough digs
across western North America, forcing SW flow aloft over Kansas
and strong leeside troughing and downsloping. 12z ECMWF forecasts
993 mb surface low in eastern Colorado. Kept the mid to upper 50s
from the forecast builder, but these are almost certainly several
degrees too cool. ECMWF bias-corrected guidance supports 60s
across the southern CWA, with lower 70s along the Oklahoma border.
Some fire weather concerns are expected Monday afternoon.

Models have trended far enough north, with early next week`s
strong cyclone, such that precipitation chances appear minimal
across SW KS, and favoring the northern counties. A strong cold
front will certainly blast through Kansas Monday night, with
strong NW winds and much colder temperatures Tuesday. Retained a
light rain/snow mix across the northern counties during this
timeframe, but progressive northerly track should keep this
limited.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Poor flying conditions will prevail through this TAF forecast
cycle. Weak flow at the surface and aloft, and a moist boundary
layer, will allow stratus and areas of fog to persist. IFR cigs
common at midday, may show some minor improvements to MVFR for a
few hours this afternoon, most likely at GCK. IFR may prevail all
day at DDC/HYS. With no change in airmass, high confidence that
stratus and areas of BR/fog will reassert themselves after sunset.
Very high confidence of IFR, if not LIFR, stratus cigs impacting
all terminals overnight into Friday morning. Short term models are
less enthusiastic about fog development and reduced vis. With
MET/MAV MOS guidance both showing saturation and fog development,
included TEMPO groups for all terminals when fog is most likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  36  53  31 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  46  31  47  27 /  10   0  20  10
EHA  58  32  52  29 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  50  30  57  31 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  47  35  46  31 /  10  10  30  10
P28  51  37  57  31 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner


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