Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200858
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
358 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains will
move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today and tonight.
Southwesterly upper level flow will follow with increasing high
level moisture and some cirrus cloudiness into tonight. South winds
will increase again this afternoon at 15 to 30 mph as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. Highs may be augmented slightly
by some increasing cirrus cloudiness with daytime highs in the mid
to upper 90s. Should also be a dry forecast with only a slight
chance of some showers or thunderstorms skirting far west Kansas and
near and just north of the I-70 corridor late this afternoon and
tonight. After sunset south winds will decrease to 10 to 15 mph with
another mild night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Upper level troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest
will gradually progress eastward through this week and into the
weekend. The southernmost trough will approach the high plains by
late Friday. Low level convergence ahead of this feature may result
in a few thunderstorms late Friday when high temperatures reach
near 100F. By late Saturday, the system over the Pacific Northwest
will pass across the northern plains; but western Kansas will be
in the well mixed warm sector, with only isolated thunderstorms
expected. Temperatures in the warm sector will continue to be hot
in the mid 90s to 100F. There are better chances for thunderstorms
by Sunday night and Monday as the next shortwave trough digs into
the Intermountain west. The mid to upper level winds will increase
somewhat by Monday so that severe storms can`t be ruled out. High
temperatures will depend on the extent of precipitation. Sunday is
likely to still be fairly hot. There may be a gradient in maximum
temperatures by Monday, with 80s in west central Kansas and 90s in
south central Kansas. Locally heavy precipitation is possible
from late Sunday into mid next week depending on the evolution of
the upper level pattern. The ECMWF and GFS are in very good
agreement with the large scale features. The timing and intensity
of localized heavy rains will of course depend on mesoscale
details that we are not able to pinpoint at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A trough of low pressure will again deepen in the lee of the
Rockies today with light south winds becoming south 15-25kt in the
afternoon. Only some high level cirrus clouds are expected with
VFR conditions prevailing. There may be an outside chance for a
thunderstorm near KHYS tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  97  70  99  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  97  70  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  97  72  98  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  96  72  98  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse






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