Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020915
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
415 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE IMPACTS OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, FOLLOWED BY THE COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR PUSHING INTO THE STATE DURING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
SHORT TERM CONSENSUS FORECASTS KEEPS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING
THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH MAINLY REPRESENTS POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. THE MAIN SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE REMOVED TO THE EAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT CAPE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE PRESENT. A STRENTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL PROMOTE BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE WESTERN COUNTIES RECEIVING THE LONGEST
DURATION OF INSOLATION. DESPITE CLEARING, THE COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE 60S, WHILE
STRATUS FARTHER EAST HAS A GREATER NEGATIVE EFFECT ON AFTERNOON
HIGHS. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE NAM INDICATES HIGH
850-700 MB RH FIELDS WITH THE NEXT COLD ADVECTION PUSH BETWEEN
9-15 UTC FRIDAY, SUGGESTING A BROKEN BAND OF IFR/MVFR CLOUDS
MOVING THE LOCAL AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL GRIP THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY, USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS.
WIND GRIDS WERE BUMPED UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY GIVEN
THE FAIRLY INTENSE ISALLOBARIC PUSH WITH THE ONSET OF THE FRONT. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL STILL EXIST THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TO AROUND 60 FROM SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY TO HAYS AND 63-65F
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE AN IDEAL NIGHT
FOR MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 6 KNOTS
OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO 36-38F UP NORTH AND ADDED IN
PATCHY FROST FOR THE AREAS FORECAST 36F OR COOLER, PARTICULARLY
ALONG INTERSTATE 70. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY
UNCHANGED, ON THE WHOLE, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND GREATER
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, LEADING TO A NICE MODIFICATION OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE AFTERNOONS BY AS
EARLY AS MONDAY, AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
BE DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WIPED OUT FROM THE WEEKEND FRONT AND
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE/WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. THERE MAY BE A RETURN TO SOME BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST, WEST-
CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING
SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS  OF EVEN DRIZZLE LOCALLY. INITIALLY,
IFR TYPE CEILINGS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM, BUT MAY INCREASE WITH
TIME AFTER 12 UTC AS THE COOLER MOIST AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. NLDN CONFIRMED THUNDERSTOMS WERE WELL EAST OF THE
AREA, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN A MORE STABLY STRATIFIED FORM.
CEILINGS COULD DECREASE TO BELOW 1000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  44  65  40 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  67  42  65  39 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  68  43  66  43 /  40   0   0   0
LBL  67  44  67  42 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  65  40  62  38 /  60   0   0   0
P28  68  48  67  42 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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