Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 110523
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1123 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Water vapor loop and RAP analysis revealed pronounced mid-upper
tropospheric anticyclone across the western CONUS with ridge poking
north well into British Columbia. Rounding the ridge was a shortwave
trough diving southeast into Montana. This feature will continue to
roll southeast tonight, with a surface low pushing southeast from
the eastern Dakotas into northern Illinois by midday Monday. The
primary jet streak tied to this feature will remain northeast of
western Kansas, and as a result, the coldest air will remain
northeast of western Kansas. We will see the wind, though, like we
usually do with these types of systems. After a period of mainly
westerly light winds tonight (10 mph or less), winds will shift
gradually to the northwest and increase in speed by late morning.
Expect sustained winds on the order of 20 to 25 mph during the day,
perhaps stronger up around Hays. Gusts should be in the 30 to 35 mph
range. Cold advection will be muted by downslope warming, such that
afternoon temperatures should still reach 59 to 64F across much of
the southwest Kansas region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The hemispheric Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern, characterized by
mean ridge in the western CONUS and mean trough in the eastern CONUS
will continue through late Wednesday/Thursday, before the western
ridge finally breaks down. One last northwest flow, dry cold frontal
passage will occur late Wednesday/Wednesday Night with a fresh round
of cooler, but downslope-modified air. This front will be a bit
stronger than Monday`s front, which should result in highs Thursday
in the upper 40s to around 50 most locations. It will remain dry,
however. The hemispheric pattern will become more zonal in nature by
the upcoming weekend, with the main polar jet core remaining north
of western Kansas. This should result in a continued above normal to
perhaps well-above normal temperature scenario. There are some hints
that ridge-amplification will occur once again in the far extended,
but quite a bit farther west off the west coast of North American,
which could lead to deepening mean trough out west after about 20
December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A surface trough
will move through the central High Plains switching winds from the
west to northwest by Monday morning. Winds will increase from the
northwest and then north during the day as a cold front pushes
through. Strongest winds will be in the Hays area where gusts to
35-40 knots will be possible with somewhat weaker but still gusty
winds across southwest Kansas. Winds will be diminishing to
around 10 knots or less after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected to
develop Monday late morning through afternoon as a very dry cold
front pushes south across western Kansas. Temperatures will not drop
much over what was seen today, with about the same dewpoint
temperature. The result should be at least a couple hours of around
15 percent relative humidity. Given the much stronger northwest
winds, a fire weather headline will be needed. After coordination
with surrounding WFOs, will issue a Red Flag Warning for Dighton-
Jetmore-Bucklin-Coldwater line and points west (matching well with
WFO GLD, PUB, AMA, OUN). East of this line, where there is greater
uncertainty in the 15-percent RH requirement being met, will issue a
Fire Weather Watch, which matches well against WFO GLD, GID, ICT,
and OUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  61  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  26  59  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  62  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  63  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  31  57  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
P28  33  63  26  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CST Monday through Monday
afternoon for KSZ030-031-045-046-065-066-079>081-090.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ Monday for KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-084>089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid


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