Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311140
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
540 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASES ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. THIS IS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINS ABOVE THE BAJA REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AS
WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY BECOMING BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIPITATION MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE ALL OVER TO SNOW AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

IN THE LONGER TERM THE GREATEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES,
BOTH SPATIALLY AND THE MAGNITUDE. EARLY SUNDAY THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE EXITING MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MOST LIKELY LIGHT SNOW) AROUND BARBER COUNTY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES SHOULD BE GRADUALLY
CLEARING IN PRESENCE OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLIER WILL BE ARCTIC IN NATURE.
HOWEVER, MY AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE AIRMASS. STILL,
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT MAY STILL WARM A LITTLE AROUND
ELKHART.

BY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE WESTERLIES WILL HELP LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE. WARMING WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
BUT, HOW FAR EAST THE MIXING OCCURS AND RESULTANT WARMING IS IN
QUESTION. MY EASTERN COUNTIES COULD VERY WELL STAY ENTRENCHED IN
THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY HAVE SOME BUST POTENTIAL.

YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
WESTERLIES WILL HAVE A SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIRMASS FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN BUT MID-WEEK LOOKS MOST LIKELY. IN
ADDITION, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND BAROCLINICITY TO
PROMOTE SOME PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY LIGHT (AND IN THE
FORM OF FROZEN).

ANOTHER WARM-UP IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD A LITTLE AND THE WESTERLIES RETREAT A BIT NORTH.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF TODAY AS COPIOUS
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. RAIN WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR IN
THE DODGE CITY AND HAYS AREAS WITH SOME SNOW AROUND HAYS.
VISIBILITIES WILL GO UP AND DOWN WITH THE RAIN AND STRATUS.
TONIGHT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  30  33  14 /  70  60  10   0
GCK  46  29  35  14 /  40  50   0   0
EHA  45  32  40  19 /  40  40   0   0
LBL  45  33  38  18 /  60  60  10   0
HYS  42  25  27  11 /  50  60  10   0
P28  43  33  35  14 / 100 100  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...HUTTON



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