Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250007
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
507 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  AS IT COMES ACROSS SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE WINDY CATEGORY SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE LACK OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS
ALSO LACKING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY GOOD MIXING BUT CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 06Z WILL HELP WITH COOLING.  EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO THE LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO REACH THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANSITION FROM A WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN TO ONE THAT IS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH SITTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF. MODELS DO SHIFT RIDGE
OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION GOING INTO NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN. GOING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY...AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...BEGINNING THE COOLING DOWN OF TEMPS
TO NEAR NORMAL AS CAA RE-SURFACES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
PLAINS REGION BEHIND EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING
IN ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MODEL 925 MB TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RANGE FROM +14C TO
+18C DURING PEAK WARMING...THEN TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE +5C TO +9C
RANGE MIDDAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER GOING
INTO THE MON/TUES TIMEFRAME WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER REGION...THESE
TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING NEAR 70F FOR BOTH
DAYS...WITH 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NEXT WEDNESDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM NEAR 60F DOWN TO THE MID
30S...IN PART BY 2 WAVES OF COLD AIR ARRIVING WITH TROUGH PASSAGES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH BEST
TIMEFRAME OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF SECOND
SYSTEM. FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF CUTOFF OVER SW PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY THATS LIFTS NORTH AS H5 RIDGE GOES EASTWARD. THE
TROUGH REMNANTS THEN SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AS FIRST SHORTWAVE.
RUNNING INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVEMENT OVER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM DRY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX WITH CUTOFF OVER THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BRING SL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY TO WARRANT MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS IN SPOTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
ACCUM INCH OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 451 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-
06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER 06Z. BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...BECOMING
GUSTY BY 12Z AND INCREASING FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALL THIS WIND WILL BE CAUSED BY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE SUBSIDENCE WAKE OF AN
EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING DUE TO
SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS 1500FT AGL SHOULD BE AROUND
50KTS FROM 06Z-18Z WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 100+KTS IN THE JET STREAM
ABOVE 15KFT AGL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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