Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 081130
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
430 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

NW flow is in place across the Central High Plains, with a 1042mb
surface high pressure over our CWA associated with arctic air mass
in place.

Regarding wind chills this morning: Most locations within
advisory/warning have dropped near zero or below zero, and wind
chills have been in the -15F to -30F range at times this morning.
Decision was made to add Norton, Gove, and Sheridan counties to
current advisory based on obs near or already below wind chill
criteria.

Westerly zonal flow builds back over the Central Rockies and Central
High Plains with lee troughing reestablishing itself. Surface high
pressure slides east in response to this changing pattern late
tonight with southerly flow developing. This pattern will favor dry
conditions and a warming trend. Snow pack will have an influence on
temps and surface dewpoints in the early periods, but should
disappear rather quickly on Friday when WAA gets underway from the
south-southwest.

Today-Tonight: Surface high pressure slowly slides east and today
should see below normal with snow pack and arctic air in place.
Highs will struggle to reach the lower 20s in some areas, and
western locations likely won`t warm out of the teens despite sunny
skies. High clouds increase tonight and insulation combined with
shifting flow in the lower levels should result in lows being warmer
than this morning by 5-10F.

Friday-Saturday: Moderation of air mass over the plains continues
with highs above normal by Saturday (around 50F in the west). A weak
shortwave trough begins to approach the region Saturday night, along
with a weak cold front. This could bring minimal chances for light
precip to our far northwest by late Saturday night. Due to track and
dry layer entrenched over our CWA, confidence is not high that we
would see more than flurries or a few light snow showers.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

The main concern for next week is the potential for another arctic
air mass to move into the Central High Plains. On Sunday, there
will be a slight chance of light snow generally north of I-70
before noon.

On Monday, clouds will begin to build throughout the day with
highs near 40 across the region with winds predominately out of
the north around 10 mph. A cold front that will usher in the
aforementioned arctic air mass will move through the region
overnight Monday. Lows Monday night are forecasted to be in the
low teens across much of the region. For Tuesday, highs are
forecasted to be in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the lower
teens. There will be a slight chance of snow for counties north of
I-70 during the evening hours on Tuesday as well. For Wednesday,
highs are forecasted to be in mid 30s.

One thing of note... Current model guidance is advertising that
this arctic air mass next week could be colder than the one the
CWA experienced this week. Both GFS and ECMWF are advertising
850mb temps in the neighborhood of -14 to -16 degrees Celsius
across the region Tuesday night. Combined with good agreement in
MOS guidance, Forecast temperatures on Tuesday could be lower by
another 7-10 degrees than what current blend indicates. Would not
be surprised to see extreme wind chill values again next week,
similar to the ones seen this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 427 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

VFR conditions will continue at both KGLD and KMCK terminals
through the TAF period. Winds will remain below 12kt through the
TAF period. Westerly winds will eventually shift to the south at
KGLD as low pressure begins to build in eastern Colorado late
tonight. Surface high pressure remains dominate over KMCK through
the period with light and variable winds persisting after sunset.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     KSZ001>004-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for COZ091-092.

     Wind Chill Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for COZ090.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...DR


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