Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 242049
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE ROCKIES BUT
OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL IN EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT MEET THE 3-HOUR MINIMUM REQUIREMENT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST
SATURDAY. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE NEAR THE 4 CORNER AREA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO NEW MEXICO.  A
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BY SATURDAY.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTCENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH SOME WEAK
DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT,
POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NIL OR
SILENT.

ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE CRITICAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA, WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT.  CRITICAL VALUES
OF BOTH WIND AND RH SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY REQUIRE A FIRE HIGHLIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FA.

MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S TO THE UPPER
80S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM 60 IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EASTERN FA.  MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 DUE TO SOUTH WINDS AND
CLOUDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHCENTRAL
NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL RATHER QUESTIONABLE PAST SUNDAY AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR RATHER DRY.  CONSEQUENTLY DO NOT PLAN TO
INCREASE POPS TO MORE THAN CHANCE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN
OTHER THAN SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.  WIND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WIND LIKELY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWN TO
THE MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 50S AND 60 BY THURSDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 30S TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DEEP
MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A
FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BUT
WITH RIDGING ALOFT NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024






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