Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011112
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A BENIGN WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CENTERED ON
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION MOVES SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER
THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY
DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY. AN EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BY LATE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. EXTENSIVE
CIRRUS SEEMS PROBABLE IN THIS SCENARIO AND MADE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY COVER. A RATHER COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND RESULT IN CONVECTION POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
MONDAY EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING WILL FORM OVER THE ROCKIES WITH MEAN
TRAJECTORIES FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY ENTER THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CHANCES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE SPREAD GROWS CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IS JUSTIFIED FOR THURSDAY
AS WEAK DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...LOCKHART





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