Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 162338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
438 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

The short term forecast focus is on the possibility of very light
non-accumulating precipitation over a portion of the forecast
area overnight into early Sunday morning.

The upper low over the western Texas panhandle lifts out across
Oklahoma and into northeast Kansas by Sunday morning with colder
air moving in behind a cold front that pushes southward across
western Kansas and into the Texas panhandle. As the cold air moves
in and the dewpoints raise slightly behind the front, the boundary
layer up through nearly 700mb nears saturation. Expect the area
of low clouds across eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle
region to move into the forecast area mainly after midnight with
the possibility of areas of freezing fog, light freezing drizzle,
and snow flurries developing and spreading across mainly the
western and northern sections of the forecast area focused
primarily on the 09-14Z time period. Expect any precip to end with
lower ceilings diminishing by 18Z and lower cloud cover
diminishing through the remainder of the day. High temperatures
will be much cooler than today and should be above freezing by
17Z, which should quickly melt anything that did freeze overnight
and early in the morning.

Some elevated exposed surfaces may become slippery, but do not
expect any appreciable widespread ice or snow, so am not
considering the issuance of any highlights, but will mention in
ancillary products.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

Sunday night-Monday night...may have a few low clouds early Sunday
night before drier air moves in from the west. For Monday and Monday
night a few mid and high clouds move in from the northwest with dry
conditions expected. Low temperatures Sunday night in the mid teens
to low 20s. High temperatures Monday look to reach the mid to upper
50s. For Monday night low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...perhaps a few high clouds per 300mb humidity
otherwise little if any clouds and dry. High temperatures expected
to be in the low to mid 50s with lows in the low to mid 20s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...upper flow shifts to the southwest late
in the day ahead of an upper level trough diving southeast into
Nevada and Utah. This trough deepens with a closed 500mb low over
southwest Utah by 12z Thursday per GFS/GEM. 850mb temperatures warm
into the 7C to 10C range supporting highs in the mid 50s to around
60. High clouds increase from the west ahead of the trough during
the day. For the overnight hours could see some low clouds and
perhaps some fog from McCook to near Gove and points east through
midnight as saturated boundary layer moisture moves up from the
south ahead of cold front. Otherwise am expecting breezy to windy
north winds after midnight as cold front moves through. Moisture in
the 850-500mb layer and model qpf supports a very brief period of
light rain and snow before changing over to light snow before
sunrise across the northwest 1/3 of the area. Low temperatures in
the mid teens northwest to mid 20s far east.

Thursday...breezy to windy north winds expected through much of the
day becoming 10 mph or less during the night. 850mb temperatures of
-9C to -14C expected with MEX guidance showing highs in the mid
20s. These "high" temperatures may come early in the day before
slowly falling during the afternoon as colder air filters in from
the north. Low temperatures generally in the single digits above
zero range. Regarding precipitation chances, they appear to
increase into the chance to likely category during the day as
moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves in ahead of a separate
upper level trough to the northwest of the area. Precipitation
type will primarily be light snow. The combination of the snow
and gusty north winds may produce some blowing snow.

Friday...daytime period looks dry with high temperatures in the low
30s. Precipitation chances increase across the northwest corner of
the area after midnight as an area of 850-500mb moisture moves in
from the northwest supporting some light snow. Low temperatures in
the single digits to 15 degree range above zero.

Saturday...area of moisture noted above slowly sinks south during
the day supporting a slight chance to low chance of light snow
across the western 1/2 or so of the area under a partly to mostly
cloudy sky. High temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 438 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

A cold front is actively moving from southwest Nebraska into
northwest Kansas and will be south of the region this evening.
Winds will tend to shift from the northeast to the north overnight
remaining in the 10-14kt range through early Sunday morning. Low
level moisture increases and some guidance is showing the
potential for fog or even freezing drizzle. There is not a lot of
consistency and the winds may be just high enough to keep low
stratus favored. I was not confident enough to keep freezing
drizzle in the TAFs as coverage appears to be low enough that it
may never impact either terminal. Flight conditions will slowly
improve, with VFR returning Sunday afternoon. Lowest conditions
will be at KGLD Sunday morning (08-13Z) where LIFR cigs are
expected. IFR will be favored at KMCK during the same period of




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