Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 261930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAIN WILL COME BACK BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO LOVER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT BY THIS EVENING AND DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. EXPECT QUIET
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN...CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL COME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. DURING THAT PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN. AS THE WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN
LOWER...DEVELOPING PLAINS LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A FLATTENED UPPER
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
POTENTIAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PRESENT WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE QUIET PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SO TSRA
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH 20Z...AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL FALL TO IFR/MVFR DURING STORMS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A WARM FRONT COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY FRIDAY.
WET WEATHER COULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THOUGH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO





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